Bastia VS Troyes

Bastia host Troyes for this French Ligue 2 battle at Stade Armand Cesari early Sunday morning Beijing time. This is the second-highest tier of French football and is of decent level by European standards. However, the difference between Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 is substantial. My fans and ) have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity here to increase the winning streak of six bets and 10/11 latest picks won at the time of writing this analysis Saturday morning Beijing time. I have written an in-depth analysis on two LaLiga games and two more picks on interesting games will be posted soon!  Football fans and us profit-hungry, serious football bettors can expect a game of good level between these two teams! Neither of the two teams are, of course, among the top-2 teams in the Ligue 2 by pure class though. However, this is a pretty balanced league and a big number of teams have a chance to make it to the top-5 and fight for promotion.. I want to tell my fans that overall in this league mached are often more balanced than the odds offered by the bookies would suggest.. The goal expectancy here is a bit lower than the bookies estimate as neither team's offense has fully convinced me - this is typical early season though as defending is easier than attacking.. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 60.5%. I expect Troyes to be pretty defensive here against a dangerous opponent.. Bastia are often very aggressive offensively in front of their loud fans but their offense has failed to fully impress me so far. Moreover, Troyes have very good defenders for this level. ..

Troyes were relegated to this level for this season after a disappointing last season in the Ligue 1. They finished in 19th place with 24 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) was 28.12. Yes, they sold right-winder Wilson Odobert for 12 million to Burnley and are worse than last season - at least on paper.. Even so, the bookies seem to have overreacted to losing Odobert and some other good players. Troyes do, however, have some interesting new players as well! Goalkeeper Alemdar arrived from a big club, Rennes (loan). Centre-back Ndiaye joined the club from Lyon for 3.50 million euros. It is a low price in my expert opinion! According to a well-respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the Troyes squad is valued at almost 45 million euros. This is a massive number by Ligue 2 standards! Yes, it is too high – 40 million would be a more realistic number. Bastia's players have a total market value of just below 12 million which is too low. 16-17 million would be a more accurate number. Indeed, the visitors are a much better team on paper. In reality, this is not the case at the moment as the visitors do not have a significant edge over Bastia. As we can see here the estimated market values can sometimes be misleading but are overall a pretty good indicator of a team's level on the pitch.. I see the Troyes are the slightly better team here but taking the huge home advantage into account Bastia are the favorites – but only narrow with the expected lineups. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based in-depth analysis the visitors have a 63% chance of avoiding defeat here! We will go for Troyes +0.5 handicap option to win once again together!

Bastia performed very well last season and finished in 4th place with a respectable 60 points to their account! However, the gap in terms of total points to the top-2 teams, Le Havre and Metz – was big.. Bastia would be lucky, buy new players or improve their defense significantly to make it to the top-5 this season.. Offensively Bastia were very convincing last season and netted the ball 52 times in the Ligue 2. For example, Le Havre, who grabbed 75 points, scored 46 goals. Bastia's number of expected goals (xG) was, in fact, even bigger – 54.02 to be precise. However, defensively they were simply not good enough to deserve a promotion to the Ligue 1. Troyes have a lot of individually skilled players who can exploit Bastia's defensive vulnerabilities. They often take too big risks at home.. Troys can be very deadly on fast counter attacks. Indeed, Bastia's defensive structure was not solid enough and the defenders made too many - sometimes even pretty stupid – individual mistakes last season and they conceded 45 goals in the Ligue 1. The midfielders were often not active enough in defending and this was the case in their most recent game as well. They disappointed me by losing to Amiens, who are not a great team, 1-2 away from home. Especially early into the first half Bastia were in very big trouble.. Amiens recorded many more shots on goals, goal attempts (17-12) corner kicks (12-2), attacks and dangerous attacks. I lowered Bastia's power rating - that reflects the teams' pure class with the best starting eleven - after this game! In my expert opinion, they should also press the opponent in a more organized way - and avoid being too aggressive which often results in fatigue – especially late into the second half. I do trust Bastia and their good coach to gradually improve defensively. The main rationale behind this pick is not to oppose Bastia really but to take advantage of the bookies underestimating Troyes! I want to add that not that much has changed for Bastia for this season in terms of their pure class..

Before losing to Amiens Bastia played well and lost just one of the six games. They even beat a pretty big Italian team that play in the Serie A, Verona, 3-1 in a friendly game on the 29th of July. In their most recent match, they easily defeated Valenciennes, a potentially dangerous team, 3-0 at home. They dominated the events on the pitch for the most of the 90 minutes despite having just 48% ball possession. However, the visitors could not do much  with the ball and the Bastia players clearly realized this as the match progressed.. Indeed, Valenciannes recorded just three shots on target and one off goal. Bastia, on the other hand, managed seven shots on target and six off target. Moreover, the hosts created 15 scoring chances. They also recorded more attacks and dangerous attacks. With this kind of performance Bastia could easily win this game but they seem to be a rather erratic team.. The biggest, sometimes pretty smart bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers, see them as clear favorites here and offer them odds of around 2.05 to win. This is massively too low! 

Troyes have not lost any of the three games in Ligue 2 so far but I have not been fully impressed by them.. They can improve significantly – in all areas of the game. In their most recent game, their offense was bad but they defended well and took a point from Grenoble as clear underdogs according to the bookies. They were far from their best in this game but they have the routine to take points even when their game is not really working too well. Grenoble, on the other hand, played above their normal level. Before this Troyes beat Laval, a potentially dangerous team, 3-1 at home priced at around 2.20 to win. It was not – despite the win - a fully satisfactory performance to be honest and they were criticized in the French football media - too heavily in my view though..  Even so, Laval could even have won this game..  It seems that some fans expected too much from Troyes in the first three rounds of play.  Their game is still a "work in progress" but the routine and individual skill at crucial moments -  especially near the goal -  many of their players have,  should be respected more by the betting market. I have often mentioned that bets based strongly on potential for improvement are rarely a good idea and this has not changed but Troyes are an exception to this rule!

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巴斯蒂亚VS特鲁瓦

北京时间周日凌晨，巴斯蒂亚主场迎战特鲁瓦，将在阿尔芒·切萨里球场迎战法甲联赛。这是法国足球的第二高级别联赛，以欧洲标准来看，这是一个不错的水平。然而，法甲和法甲之间的差异是巨大的。在北京时间周六上午写这篇分析时，我的粉丝和我还有另一个非常有利可图的投注机会，可以增加6次投注和10/11次最新投注的连胜纪录。我已经写了一篇关于两场西甲比赛的深入分析，另外两场有趣的比赛将很快发布!足球迷和我们这些渴望利润的严肃的足球投注者可以期待这两支球队之间的一场好比赛!当然，这两支球队都不在法甲联赛的前两名之列。然而，这是一个相当平衡的联赛，很多球队都有机会进入前5名并为升级而战。我想告诉我的球迷，总的来说，在这个联盟中，比分通常比博彩公司提供的赔率更平衡。这里的进球预期比博彩公司估计的要低一些，因为两支球队的进攻都没有完全让我信服——这是典型的赛季初期，尽管防守比进攻容易。总进球数少于2.5个的概率为60.5%。我希望特鲁瓦在面对一个危险的对手时能够很好地防守。在喧闹的球迷面前，巴斯蒂亚的进攻总是很有侵略性，但到目前为止，他们的进攻还没有给我留下深刻的印象。此外，特鲁瓦在这个级别上有非常好的防守者……

由于上赛季在法甲的表现令人失望，特鲁瓦在本赛季被降级到这个级别。虽然以24分排在第19位，但期望分数(xPTS)为28.12分。是的，他们把右边锋威尔逊奥多伯特以1200万的价格卖给了伯恩利，而且比上赛季更糟糕——至少在纸面上…即便如此，博彩公司似乎对失去奥多伯特和其他一些好球员反应过度了。然而，特洛伊也有一些有趣的新玩家!门将阿莱姆达尔从一家大俱乐部租借而来。中后卫恩迪亚耶以350万欧元的价格从里昂加盟俱乐部。在我看来，这是一个很低的价格!根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，特鲁瓦队的身价接近4500万欧元。以法甲的标准来看，这是一个巨大的数字!是的，这个数字太高了——4000万是个比较现实的数字。巴斯蒂亚球员的总市值略低于1200万欧元，这太低了。更准确的数字是1600万到1700万。事实上，客队在纸面上要好得多。事实上，目前情况并非如此，因为客队对巴斯蒂亚并没有明显的优势。正如我们在这里看到的，市场价值有时可能会被误导，但总的来说，这是一个很好的指标，表明一支球队在球场上的水平。我认为特鲁瓦在这里的表现稍好一些，但考虑到巨大的主场优势，巴斯蒂亚是最受欢迎的球队——但在预期的阵容中只是微弱的。根据我复杂的，强大的基于数据的深度分析客队在这里有63%的机会避免失败!我们将为特鲁瓦+0.5障碍选项一起再赢一次!

巴斯蒂亚上赛季表现非常出色，以60分的可观成绩排在第四名!然而，与前两名球队勒阿弗尔和梅斯的总积分差距很大。巴斯蒂亚会很幸运的，买新球员或者大幅提高他们的防守，使他们在本赛季进入前五。在进攻端，巴斯蒂亚上赛季非常有说服力，在法甲联赛中打进52球。例如，勒阿弗尔队获得75分，进了46个球。事实上，巴斯蒂亚的预期进球数(xG)更大，准确地说是54.02。然而，他们的防守还不足以晋级法甲。特鲁瓦有很多技术娴熟的球员，他们可以利用巴斯蒂亚的防守弱点。他们经常在家里冒太大的风险。特洛伊在快速反击中是非常致命的。事实上，巴斯蒂亚的防守结构不够稳固，后卫上赛季犯了太多——有时甚至是非常愚蠢的——个人错误，他们在法甲丢了45个球。中场球员在防守中往往不够积极，这在他们最近的比赛中也是如此。他们输给亚眠让我很失望，亚眠不是一支伟大的球队，客场1-2。尤其是上半场开始的时候，巴斯蒂亚遇到了很大的麻烦。亚眠记录了更多的射门、射门尝试(17胜12负)、角球(12胜2负)、进攻和危险进攻。

在这场比赛之后，我降低了巴斯蒂亚的能量值——这反映了球队拥有最好的首发11人的纯粹等级!在我看来，他们还应该以一种更有组织的方式压迫对手，避免过于激进，这通常会导致疲劳，尤其是在下半场后期。我相信巴斯蒂亚和他们的好教练会逐渐提高防守。这个选择背后的主要理由并不是真正对抗巴斯蒂亚，而是利用博彩公司低估特鲁瓦!我想补充的是，从纯粹的水平来看，巴斯蒂亚这个赛季并没有太大的变化。

在输给亚眠之前，巴斯蒂亚打得很好，六场比赛只输了一场。他们甚至在7月29日的一场友谊赛中以3-1击败了意甲的意大利强队维罗纳。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场以3比0轻松击败了一支潜在的危险球队瓦朗谢纳。尽管控球率只有48%，但在90分钟的大部分时间里，他们在场上占据了主导地位。然而，客队不能做太多的球和巴斯蒂亚球员清楚地意识到这一点，随着比赛的进行。事实上，瓦伦西亚内仅有3次射正，1次越位。另一方面，巴斯蒂亚有7次射正，6次射偏。此外，东道主创造了15次得分机会。他们还记录了更多的袭击和危险的袭击。以这样的表现，巴斯蒂亚可以轻松赢得这场比赛，但他们似乎是一支相当不稳定的球队。最大的，有时相当聪明的博彩公司接受客户最大的赌注，认为他们是明显的热门，并提供2.05左右的赔率。这太低了!

到目前为止，特鲁瓦在法甲的三场比赛中没有输过一场，但我对他们的表现并没有完全印象深刻。他们在比赛的各个方面都有很大的进步。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们的进攻很糟糕，但他们防守很好，从格勒诺布尔拿了一分，根据博彩公司的说法，他们显然处于劣势。他们在这场比赛中远没有达到最佳状态，但他们有办法在比赛不太顺利的时候拿分。另一方面，格勒诺布尔队的表现超出了他们的正常水平。在此之前，特鲁瓦在主场以3比1击败了拉瓦尔，这是一支潜在的危险球队，获胜的价格在2.20左右。尽管取得了胜利，但说实话，这并不是一场完全令人满意的比赛，他们受到了法国足球媒体的批评——在我看来，批评太多了……即便如此，拉瓦尔本可以赢得这场比赛的。在前三轮比赛中，似乎有些球迷对特鲁瓦的期望过高。他们的比赛仍在“进步中”，但他们的许多球员在关键时刻——尤其是在进球附近——的常规和个人技巧，应该得到博彩市场的更多尊重。我经常提到，基于改进潜力的赌注很少是一个好主意，这一点没有改变，但特鲁瓦是一个例外!