America MG VS Fortaleza

America MG welcome Fortaleza for this Copa Sudamericana quarter-final first leg battle at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Belo Horizonte Friday morning Beijing time. Both teams come from Brazil and play in the Serie A. This is the second-highest international South American competition. Both teams are surely very motivated and football fans and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect pretty good entertainment here by this competitor's standards! The hosts cannot match Fortaleza in any area of the game. Fortaleza are playing a strong season so far and I have raised their power rating - that reflects the teams' pure class -  from the in-depth preseason analysis.  They occupy the 8th place in the standings with a total of 29 points in their pocket. Their number of expected points is even slightly bigger – 30.44 to be precise. America MG, on the other hand, have been very disappointing so far this season! They have won just two of the 19 games in the Serie A and are in last place! They have a pathetic 10 points to their account! Yes,they have potential for improvement but it seems that the bookies give this potential way too much emphasis., Their number of xPTS is 12.99. Their defense has been very leaky and they have allowed a stunning 44 goals in the Serie A! However, typically for the first leg in a situation when the stakes are high I do not expect many goals here. The probability of under 2.5 goals to be scored is even bigger than the betting market estimates – 71%. I do not expect Fortaleza to be very aggressive here and even a draw would probably be okay.. At home they will probably get the job done presuming they just have to win by a margin of just one goal.. 

 In terms of defensive quality the visitors have a very big edge here! They have allowed just 19 goals in the Serie A! This is less than Flamengo, a big team, currently in 3rd place. Their defense has a fine structure and silly individual mistakes are few. Offensively they are not much better than the hosts though as they lack creativity to break the opponents defensive line often enough to become a top-5 team in the Serie A. They have been in fine form lately winning two games in a row and losing just one of their latest five matches. In their latest game they beat Internacional away from home as clear underdogs according to the bookies. This was yet another example of them being undervalued! They generated 1.34 in expected goals (xG) - the hosts managed only 0.73. America MG have lost two games - after weak performances - in a row and are low in confidence. I also do not trust their coach.. They have won just one of the latest 11 games in regulation time. The biggest, sometimes relatively smart bookies with the biggest stake limits offer odds of around 2.60 on the hosts to win but I strongly disagree! The visitors are solid favorites and with the recommended bet of +0.5 goals on Fortaleza my fans and I have a 73% chance of winning. The home advantage is of course there but the hosts' fans have been very disappointed lately so the atmosphere at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio might not be that great..

美国MG VS福塔莱萨

北京时间周五上午，南美杯1 / 4决赛首回合在贝洛奥里藏特主场迎战福塔莱萨，主场为Estádio桑帕约。两支球队都来自巴西，参加意甲联赛。这是南美洲第二高的国际比赛。这两支球队肯定都很有动力，球迷和我们这些认真的、渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待在这个竞争对手的标准下获得相当好的娱乐!东道主在比赛的任何领域都无法与福塔莱萨匹敌。到目前为止，福塔莱萨打出了一个强劲的赛季，我从季前赛的深入分析中提高了他们的力量评级——这反映了球队的纯粹实力。他们在积分榜上排名第8，总共得到29分。他们的预期分数甚至略高，准确地说是30.44分。另一方面，美国MG本赛季到目前为止非常令人失望!他们在意甲19场比赛中只赢了2场，排在最后!他们的账户只有可怜的10分!是的，他们有进步的潜力，但似乎博彩公司过于强调这种潜力。，它们的xPTS数为12.99。他们的防守漏洞百出，在意甲丢了44个球!然而，通常在第一回合的情况下，赌注很高，我不期望在这里有很多进球。进球数低于2.5球的概率甚至比博彩市场估计的还要大——71%。我不认为福塔莱萨在这里会很有侵略性，甚至平局也可以。在主场，他们可能会完成任务，假设他们只需要以一球的优势获胜。

就防守质量而言，客队在这里有很大的优势!他们在意甲只丢了19个球!这比目前排名第三的豪门弗拉门戈还少。他们的防守结构很好，个人犯的低级错误很少。在进攻端，他们并不比主队强多少，因为他们缺乏创造力来突破对手的防线，不足以成为意甲前五的球队。他们最近的状态很好，两连胜，最近五场比赛中只输了一场。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场击败了国际队，根据博彩公司的说法，他们显然处于劣势。这是他们被低估的又一个例子!他们创造了1.34个预期进球(xG)，而东道主只创造了0.73个。美国队在表现不佳的情况下连输两场，信心低落。我也不相信他们的教练。在最近的11场比赛中，他们只赢了一场。最大的，有时相对聪明的博彩公司与最大的赌注限制提供约2.60的赔率，但我强烈反对!客队是最受欢迎的球队，我和我的球迷的建议赌注是福塔莱萨+0.5球，有73%的获胜机会。主场优势当然是有的，但是东道主球迷最近很失望，所以Estádio桑帕约球场的气氛可能不太好。