Fluminense RJ VS Olimpia Asuncion

Fluminense host Adana Olimpia Asuncion for this Copa Libertadores playoffs first leg battle at the iconic Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro Friday morning Beijing time. The hosts are a Brazilian team and the visitors come from Paraguay. This is the highest international South American competition. Both teams are surely very motivated and football fans and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect good entertainment here! However, there is a significant difference in pure class between the two teams. The visitors cannot match Fluminense in any area of the game. I expect the hosts to be very aggressive right from the kickoff – putting immense pressure on the visitors' rather vulnerable defense! It is important to understand that as a whole the Brazilian Serie A is of significantly better quality than the Paraguayan Primera Division. In fact, the Serie A is the best league in South America! Fluminense are playing a strong season so far. They occupy the 4th place in the standings with a total of 34 points in their pocket. Their number of expected points is even bigger – 38.02 to be precise.Olimpia Asuncion, on the other hand, have been very disappointing so far this season! They have won just one of the six games in the Primera Division and are in the second-last place! In their most recent game they faced Guairena at home as big favorites according to the betting market – priced around 1.50 to take all three points. Yes, they were the better team on the pitch and recorded more in expected goals (xG) but I was not impressed by their performance. They lacked creativity and speed on offense. Furthermore, they also looked vulnerable when the opponent won the ball and rushed into fast counter attacks. They are a bad team on the road – failing to win any of their latest away games! They seem to lack confidence to keep the and pass the ball in away matches which often results in too much pressure on their defense – causing fatigue towards the end of the game, Before the draw against Guairena they were okay against Cerro Porteno away from home and grabbed a point through a 1-1 draw. However, the hosts were far from their best level in this game.

The home advantage in this competition, between clubs from different countries, is almost always substantial, bigger than the bookmakers often realize.. This is the situation here as well! With the expected lineups – based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis, the hosts have a 76% chance of winning. The biggest, sometimes relatively smart bookies with the biggest stake limits offer odds of around 2.20 on Fluminense to win by a margin of at least two goals (-1.5 goals handicap) at the time of writing this analysis early Thursday morning Beijing time. However, I expect the odds to drop before kickoff as smart money is expected to pile up on the hosts! The chance of winning is 55%. I believe the hosts will want to crush the visitors here and keep attacking even if they take the lead. Indeed, the goal expectancy here is bigger than the bookies estimate. The probability of over 2.5 total goal to be scored is 57%. Let's not forget that Fluminense have great fans and have not lost any of the latest 21 games at home – winning most of these 21 matches! Moreover, the hosts are a much bigger club in terms of players total market value according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com. Their squad has an estimated total market value of around 77 million euros. This is a little too low in my expert opinion. Three Fluminense players are undervalued. Olimpia Asuncion players, on the other hand, have a total market value of avout 28 million which is way too high! I would set the number at around 21 million. Four of their players are overvalued. Fluminense were very strong in their latest game beating America MG 3-1 at home. They had close to 70% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal (6-3), total passes, completed passes, corner kicks (7-1), attacks and dangerous attacks - 61-27. Before this they were unlucky to lose to Gremio, a big team in Brazil, currently in 5th place in the Serie A as clear underdogs 1-2 away from home. Indeed, Fluminense had 66% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (18-11), shots on goal, shots off target, total passes, completed passes, corner kicks (8-3), attacks and dangerous attacks – 58-35. They also recorded more in expected goals (xG) 1.13-1.02. Furthermore, on the 9th of this month they were excellent at home and beat Argentinos Jrs, a big team from Argentina, 2-0 at home. They were the much better team and defended extremely well. Indeed, the visitors generated just 0.09 in xG – Fluminense's number was 1.56.

弗鲁米嫩塞VS奥林匹亚亚松森

北京时间周五上午，弗鲁米嫩塞主场迎战亚松森阿达纳奥林匹亚，将在标志性的Maracanã球场进行南美解放者杯季后赛首回合激战。东道主是巴西队，客队来自巴拉圭。这是南美洲最高级别的国际比赛。这两支球队肯定都很有动力，球迷和我们这些认真的、渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待在这里得到很好的娱乐!然而，两队在纯等级上存在显著差异。客队在比赛的任何领域都无法与弗鲁米嫩塞匹敌。我预计主队从开球开始就会很有侵略性——给客队脆弱的防线施加巨大的压力!重要的是要明白，作为一个整体，巴西甲级联赛的质量明显好于巴拉圭甲级联赛。事实上，意甲是南美洲最好的联赛!到目前为止，弗鲁米嫩塞打出了一个强劲的赛季。他们在积分榜上排名第四，总共得到34分。他们的期望值更大——准确地说是38.02分。另一方面，亚松森奥林匹亚本赛季到目前为止非常令人失望!他们在西甲联赛的六场比赛中只赢了一场，排名倒数第二!在他们最近的一场比赛中，根据博彩市场的价格，他们在主场面对瓜伊雷纳，这是一个大热门，大约1.50美元，可以获得所有三分。是的，他们在场上表现更好，预期进球也更多，但我对他们的表现并不满意。他们在进攻端缺乏创造力和速度。此外，当对手赢球并快速反击时，他们也显得很脆弱。他们是一支糟糕的客场球队——最近一场客场比赛都没赢!在客场比赛中，他们似乎缺乏控球和传球的信心，这通常会给他们的防守带来太大的压力，导致他们在比赛快结束时感到疲劳。在战平瓜伊雷纳之前，他们在客场对阵波特诺的比赛中表现不错，并在1-1战平的比赛中拿到了一分。然而，东道主在这场比赛中远没有达到最佳水平。

在这项来自不同国家的俱乐部之间的比赛中，主场优势几乎总是巨大的，比博彩公司通常意识到的要大。这里的情况也是如此!根据预期的阵容，根据我复杂的，强有力的数据分析，东道主有76%的获胜机会。在北京时间周四凌晨撰写这篇分析时，最大的、有时也是相对聪明的博彩公司给出了2.20左右的赔率，认为弗鲁米嫩塞将以至少两球(-1.5球障碍)的优势获胜。然而，我预计赔率会在开球前下降，因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在东道主身上!获胜的几率是55%。我相信主队会想在这里碾压客队，即使他们领先，他们也会继续进攻。事实上，这里的预期进球比博彩公司估计的要大。总进球数超过2.5个的概率为57%。别忘了弗鲁米嫩塞有很棒的球迷，他们在最近的21场主场比赛中没有输过一场，而且赢得了这21场比赛中的大部分!此外，根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，从球员的总市值来看，东道主是一家大得多的俱乐部。这支球队的总市值估计在7700万欧元左右。以我的专业意见，这有点太低了。弗鲁米嫩塞的三名球员被低估了。另一方面，奥林匹亚亚松森球员的总市值约为2800万美元，这实在太高了!我把这个数字定在2100万左右。他们的四名球员被高估了。弗鲁米嫩塞在最近的比赛中非常强大，他们在主场以3-1击败了美国MG。他们的控球率接近70%，并且有更多的进球尝试、射门次数(6比3)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、角球次数(7比1)、进攻和危险进攻(61比27)。在此之前，他们不幸输给了格雷米奥，一支巴西强队，目前在意甲排名第五，客场1-2明显处于劣势。事实上，弗鲁米嫩塞拥有66%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球次数(18胜11负)、射正、射偏、总传球次数、完成传球次数、角球次数(8胜3负)、进攻和危险进攻(58胜35负)。他们的预期进球数(xG)也更高，为1.13-1.02。此外，在本月9日的主场比赛中，他们表现出色，在主场以2比0击败了阿根廷的强队阿根廷人。他们是一支更好的球队，防守也非常好。事实上，访问者在xG中只产生了0.09，而弗鲁米嫩塞的数字是1.56。