Dortmund VS FC Köln

Dortmund host FC Köln for this German Bundesliga round 1 battle at the iconic Signal Iduna Park very early Sunday morning Beijing time. This is the third-best on the planet after the English Premier League and the Spanish LaLiga. We can expect a match of pretty high level here between a top-team and a mediocre team! Last season Dortmund finished in 2nd place with a fine 71 points to their account. However, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they were a little lucky. Even so, they were clearly the second-best team in this league. They will play in the biggest club competition, the UEFA Champions League, this season and must be very confident, excited and eager to start the season! Champions League games will surely affect their game negatively in the autumn but not yet! Their focus is purely on the Bundesliga now. Bayern Munich are, boosted by the arrival of one of the best strikers in the world,  deadly Harry Kane, of course, the biggest favorites to lift the trophy once again but Dortmund may be able to make them work hard.. Dortmund would have taken the championship had they won the last game against Mainz at home but it was a 2-2 draw despite huge domination! Indeed, Dortmund generated 3.12 in expected goals (xG) and also recorded a whopping 30 goal attempts! Not winning was very unlucky and annoying for Dortmund and will surely be very motivated this season. Indeed, Bayern, too, took 71 points last season. Bayern had a better score difference though. Dortmund did not have any clear weaknesses in their game and netted the ball a whopping 83 times in 34 Bundesliga games. This was the second-biggest number in his league. Their defense, too, was good and well-organized in most games throughout the season - and almost in every home match. They allowed 44 goals – the fourth-lowest number in the Bundesliga. I believe they can improve in this area of the game this season. I trust the Dortmund players and their excellent coach, Edin Terzic! Terzic is a smart coach in terms of tactics and also a great leader. He is often underrated in the football media and this might affect the odds a bit here as well...

Probably most of my fans are aware of the fact that Dortmund have lost Jude Bellingham and this does, of course, hurt them. He was sold to Real Madrid for over 100 million euros! Yes, Bellingham is an elite player but losing Bellingham seems to have been given massively too much emphasis by the bookies! This is probably one of the main reasons behind the hosts being underrated here! They are very big favorites and have a 56% chance of winning by a margin of at least two goals and bringing my fans and me yet another winner. Indeed, with the current odds of around 2.10-2.15 offered by the biggest, sometimes rather bookies - with the biggest stake limits -  is the obvious smart bet for us here! We have won 9/10 of the latest picks - at the time of posting this preview! Let's not forget that the hosts still have a lot of quality in the squad – Can, Malen, Reus, Brandt and Haller to name a few! However, they have also bought an interesting new player, central midfielder Felix Nmecha from Wolfsburg for 30 million euros. Ahead of this game Can and Nmecha are questionable at the time of writing this analysis early Saturday morning Beijing time though. Duranville, Meunier and Reyna are out – all three are unfortunately injured. Köln, on the other hand, are without the injured Dietz, Maina, Selke, Thielmann and Uth. When analyzing this match we must realize that Dortmund have clearly the best fans in Germany – in fact the atmosphere at their stadium is definitely among the top-5 in the whole world! The first home game of the season is a massive thing for the fans and the home advantage is usually slightly bigger in the first home match than on average. Let's remember that Dortmund were incredibly strong winning in front of their ecstatic fans - winning 14 of the 17 Bundesliga games at this stadium!- Their goal difference at home was amazingly good – 55:17 to be precise! Köln, on the other hand, were pretty bad on the road – winning just four games. Moreover, they also had a weak score difference – 21:34. They are often too passive away from home which leads to too much pressure on their defense. I expect Dortmund to be very aggressive here right from the kickoff!

FC Köln are a pretty ”boring” team without clear weaknesses - or strengths.. Mediocre is the word to best describe them. They finished in 11th place last season with a total of 42 points but I would not be surprised to see them doing worse this season.. Their score difference was pretty bad – 49:54.. I do not fully trust their coach, S. Baumgart ahead of this game. He is not known for being too good at organizing the defense. Let me be very clear here - Köln will almost certainly be forced to defend a lot here.. I need to remind my fans that the teams last locked horns on the 18th of March and Dortmund crushed Köln 6-1!  What a humiliation for Köln.. They have surely not forgotten this and it is expected to affect their confidence.. Dortmund have been in terrific form for months and have not lost any of their latest 17 games – winning most of them! In their most recent game, they totally dominated Schott Mainz away from home in a DFB Pokal game – winning 6-1. The hosts are, of course, a very small team though. Köln, on the other hand, were disappointing four days ago, also in a DFB Pokal match despite beating VFL Osnabruck 3-1 away from home after extra time. They were priced around 1.40 to win after the 90 minutes of play. However, the hosts had 52% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts (16-12), shots on goal, shots off goal, free kicks and dangerous attacks! Osnabruck could easily have won this battle! Lastly, I want to mention that according to a reliable and well-known source, a German website Transfermarkt.com, the Dortmund squad is valued at around 461 million euros. The visitors' players are valued at 94 million which is too high in my opinion.

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多特蒙德VS FC Köln

北京时间周日凌晨，多特蒙德主场迎战FC Köln，在标志性的信号伊杜纳公园进行德甲第一轮比赛。这是仅次于英超和西甲的世界第三好的联赛。我们可以期待一场顶级球队和平庸球队之间的高水平比赛!上赛季多特蒙德以71分的积分排名第二。然而，就期望点(xPTS)而言，他们有点幸运。即便如此，他们显然是联盟中第二好的球队。本赛季他们将参加最大的俱乐部比赛，欧洲冠军联赛，他们必须非常自信，兴奋和渴望开始新赛季!欧冠比赛肯定会在秋天对他们的比赛产生负面影响，但现在还不是时候!他们现在的注意力完全放在德甲联赛上。拜仁慕尼黑，受到了世界上最好的前锋之一，致命的哈里凯恩的到来的鼓舞，当然，最大的希望再次举起奖杯，但多特蒙德可能会让他们努力工作……如果多特蒙德上一场主场战胜美因茨，他们就会获得冠军，但尽管他们占据了巨大的优势，但最终还是以2比2战平!事实上，多特蒙德创造了3.12个预期进球(xG)，并且还记录了惊人的30次射门!没有赢球对多特蒙德来说是非常不幸和烦恼的，我们本赛季一定会很有动力。事实上，拜仁上赛季也拿到了71分。不过拜仁的比分差距更大。多特蒙德在比赛中没有任何明显的弱点，在34场德甲比赛中有83次进球。这是他所在联赛的第二名。在整个赛季的大多数比赛中，他们的防守也很好，组织得很好，几乎在每一场主场比赛中都是如此。他们丢了44个球，这是德甲第四低的数字。我相信本赛季他们可以在这方面有所提高。我相信多特蒙德的球员和他们优秀的教练，埃丁·特齐奇!在战术方面，泰尔齐奇是一个聪明的教练，也是一个伟大的领袖。他经常被足球媒体低估，这可能也会影响到这里的赔率……

也许我的大多数球迷都知道多特蒙德失去了贝灵汉，这当然对他们造成了伤害。他以超过1亿欧元的价格被卖给了皇马!是的，贝灵汉是一名精英球员，但失去贝灵汉似乎被博彩公司过于重视了!这可能是这里的主人被低估的主要原因之一!他们非常受欢迎，有56%的机会以至少两个进球的优势获胜，并为我和我的球迷带来另一个赢家。事实上，目前的赔率约为2.10-2.15，由最大的博彩公司提供，有时甚至是最大的赌注限制，对我们来说显然是明智的赌注!我们已经赢得了9/10的最新选择-在发布这个预览的时候!让我们不要忘记东道主的阵容中仍然有很多优秀的球员——詹、马伦、罗伊斯、勃兰特和哈勒等等!然而，他们也以3000万欧元的价格从沃尔夫斯堡买到了一名有趣的新球员，中场球员菲利克斯·恩米查。在北京时间周六凌晨写这篇分析的时候，在这场比赛之前，Can和Nmecha是值得怀疑的。杜兰维尔、莫尼耶和雷纳都缺席了——不幸的是，他们三人都受伤了。另一方面，Köln队没有受伤的迪茨、梅纳、塞尔克、蒂勒曼和乌斯。在分析这场比赛时，我们必须意识到多特蒙德显然拥有德国最好的球迷——事实上，他们球场的气氛绝对是世界前五名之一!本赛季的第一场主场比赛对球迷来说是一件大事，主场优势通常比平均水平要大一些。让我们记住，多特蒙德在他们欣喜若狂的球迷面前取得了令人难以置信的胜利——在这个球场赢得了17场德甲比赛中的14场!他们在主场的净胜球大得惊人——准确地说是55:17 !Köln，另一方面，我们在客场非常糟糕，只赢了四场比赛。此外，他们也有一个微弱的比分差距——21:34。他们在客场常常过于被动，这导致他们的防守压力太大。我希望多特蒙德从开球开始就会很有侵略性!

FC Köln是一支非常“无聊”的球队，没有明显的弱点或优势。用平庸这个词来形容他们再合适不过了。上赛季他们以42分的成绩排在第11位，但如果他们本赛季表现更差，我不会感到惊讶。他们的分差相当大——49:54..在这场比赛之前，我并不完全信任他们的教练S.鲍姆加特。他不是以太出名的

善于组织辩护。让我在这里非常明确- Köln几乎肯定会被迫在这里防守很多…我需要提醒我的球迷，两队上一次交锋是在3月18日，多特蒙德6-1击败Köln !对Köln来说真是个耻辱…他们肯定没有忘记这一点，预计这将影响他们的信心。多特蒙德在最近的17场比赛中没有输过一场，而且赢了大部分!在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场以6-1的比分战胜了肖特-美因茨。当然，东道主是一支非常小的球队。科隆,另一方面,也令人失望的四天前,在足协突然比赛尽管击败VFL奥斯纳布吕克3:1离家后额外的时间。在90分钟的比赛后，他们的价格在1.40左右。然而，主队有52%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数(16-12次)、射正、射偏、任意球和危险进攻!奥斯纳布吕克可以轻松地赢得了这场战斗!最后，我想提一下，根据一个可靠和知名的消息来源，德国网站Transfermarkt.com，多特蒙德队的价值约为4.61亿欧元。客队球员的身价是9400万，在我看来太高了。