VPS vs SJK

VPS welcome visitors from the small city of Seinäjokif or this Veikkausliiga battle at Lemonsoft Stadion in Vaasa very early Thursday morning Beijing time. This is the highest tier of Finnish football but it is - as a whole - of low level by European standards. It has, however, improved quite a lot in the last approximately 7-10 years. Football fans and us serious profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of good level by Veikkausliiga standards between these two good teams! Most importantly, we have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity here! As I have mentioned before, even the biggest bookies, sometimes pretty sharp bookies, put much more time and resources on the biggest leagues played in the summer - for example the Brazilian Serie A, the Argentinian Liga Pro and also on the MLS where even the legendary Leo Messi now shines with Inter Miami. Luckily for my fans and me the bookies make a lot of mistakes with their odds in Veikkausliiga matches. The biggest bookies, who accept the biggest bets from customers, see the visitors as solid favorites here, offering them odds of around 2.25-2.35 to take all three points. This is definitely too low. Based on my expert opinion, as a Finnish professional bettor, I see the match as a coin toss – a 50-50% game without an actual favorite. This means that with the expected lineups the obvious smart bet is VPS +0.5 goals handicap here. Unfortunately for VPS, defenders Mikko Pitkänen and  Juhani Pikkarainen are suspended due to too many yellow cards. This does unarguably hurt VPS but taking a look at the odds it seems that the betting market has overreacted to these absentees. These missings do affect the number of expected goals as well but again in my opinion missing Pikkarainen and Pitkänen hurts less than the bookies believe. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 59%. The draw would most certainly not surprise anyone and the probability of this result is 32%. As for SJK, midfielder Valentin Gasc and goalkeeper Matti Haukioja are out. Matias Vainionpää and Markus Uusitalo have been training but probably will not play – at least for the full 90 minutes. Let's take a closer look at this match..

SJK are definitely better than VPS by pure class and  the visitors do deserve to be in the 3rd place in the power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. However, they are not that better than AC Oulu (4th in the standings),  the under-performing but also unlucky in terms of xPTS points, Honka, Inter Turku and VPS  -in their current amazing form! In terms of players' total market value, according to a well-known and respected German website, Trasnsfermarkt.com the difference between the two teams is not big. The VPS squad has a total market value of around 3.1 million euros. As for the visitors the total market value is slightly below four million euros. This is a bit too high in my opinion.. SJK lost to HJK, the best team in Finland, in their most recent game 1-2 at home. The match was a very interesting one and had a lot of drama! I believe it met the expectations of football fans and brought my fans and me a tasty winner! SJK were surprisingly strong in the first half and forced HJK to defend very hard. Also in the first half, HJK's Dejan Iliev got injured and was replaced by young and pretty unknown Alex Ramula,18, who had last played a match in February! This clearly shocked HJK and played a role in SJK keeping on dominating the even on the pitch in the first half. Ramula cannot be, however, blamed – in any way - for the 1-0 goal late in the first half. He played a good match as a whole and clearly does have some talent.. Yes, SJK could have scored even more goals. The match changed completely, mainly thanks to the HJK coach Korkeakunnas bringing in one of the new guys Midfielder Rogic, midfielder Hetemaj and striker Olysanya. The latter scored the 2-1 winning goal for HJK. Rogic and Hetemaj started to dominate the midfield! HJK were the much better team in the 2nd half despite SJK having a few chances to score. SJK became way too passive leading 1-1. HJK proved their class and mental edge, as I wrote in the very long free preview! HJK are a strong team but somehow I am not fully convinced that SJK will be at their best at the end of the season when stakes are sky-high. SJK did defeat Inter Turku before losing to HJK 2-1 away from home as solid favorites, priced around 2.30 to win when the match kicked off. I need to mention that Inter were far from their optimal in this game.. Yes, SJK were slightly the better team on the pitch but it could easily have been a draw – 1-1 or 2-2 - as well.. Before this SJK were disappointing to say the least away from home against FC Lahti as very clear favorites according to the bookies - priced around 1.90-2.00 to win.. They had more ball possession than Lahti, who are a pretty lowly team, but the hosts even recorded more shots on target! 

SJK have 35 points in their pocket and are in 3rd place in the league table but their number of xPTS is just 29.97! SJK being lucky in many games this season must be the main reason behind them being overvalued here – once again. VPS, on the other hand, occupy the 6th place in the standings with 24 points to their account but would have deserved more in terms of xPTS. At the moment they are definitely among the top-5 teams in this league! SJK have netted the ball "only'' 22 times in Veikkausliiga. VPS, too, have scored 22 goals. SJK and VPS last locked horns on the 8th of June in Seinäjoki and the match was a very balanced one despite the hosts being very clear favorites – priced around 1.80 to win when the match started. VPS recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal (6-3), shots off goal dangerous attacks  - 69-59. SJK did have more attacks though. In June VPS were playing pretty well but were constantly unlucky in terms of expected goals (xG). In fact, this was the situation in most of their games until the start of July.. They have now won a stunning six games in a row and have allowed just one goal in these six games. What an amazing record! I want to mention especially the match that was played on the 8th of July in Kuopio, against KuPS. KuPS are the second-best team in Finland but VPS won 1-0 as big underdogs - priced over 4.00 to win by the bookies! They had 57% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts (14-7), shots off goal (6-1), corner kicks (10-1), attacks and dangerous attacks – 83-39. VPS are very high in confidence, have a great coach and according to my sources their team spirit is also excellent. Moreover, they won five of these six games by a margin of more than one goal! The stadium is expected to be sold out so the home advantage here is bigger than on average in Veikkausliiga. I am not sure if the bookies fully realize this. In terms of defensive quality SJK do have an edge but not very clear, after all. VPS have allowed 19 goals in Veikkausliiga and their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 18.02. I want to highlight that SJK's number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 16.02 but they have allowed just 12 goals.. Last season they finished only in 6th place and were not much better than VPS.. SJK have a big number of the same players in the squad as last season and many of them have played above their normal level this season..

VPS vs SJK

北京时间周四凌晨，VPS在瓦萨的柠檬软球场欢迎来自小城市Seinäjokif的观众。这是芬兰足球的最高水平，但从整体上看，以欧洲标准来看，它的水平很低。然而，在过去的大约7-10年里，它有了很大的改善。足球迷和我们这些极度渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待这两支优秀球队之间的比赛，以维克考斯利加的标准来看，这是一场高水平的比赛!最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有利可图的赌博机会!正如我之前提到的，即使是最大的博彩公司，有时是相当精明的博彩公司，也会把更多的时间和资源投入到夏季最大的联赛上，比如巴西甲级联赛、阿根廷职业联赛，以及美国职业足球大联盟，就连传奇人物里奥·梅西现在也在迈阿密国际效力。幸运的是，对于我和我的球迷来说，博彩公司在维克考斯利亚联赛的赔率上犯了很多错误。最大的博彩公司接受客户最大的赌注，他们认为访客在这里是最受欢迎的，为他们提供了2.25-2.35的赔率，以获得全部三分。这肯定太低了。根据我的专业意见，作为一名芬兰职业投注者，我认为这场比赛就像抛硬币一样——五五开，没有真正的赢家。这意味着，在预期的阵容中，显然明智的赌注是VPS +0.5的进球障碍。不幸的是，VPS的后卫米科Pitkänen和尤哈尼·皮卡莱宁因黄牌过多而停赛。这无疑对VPS造成了伤害，但看看赔率，博彩市场似乎对这些缺席反应过度。这些缺阵确实也影响了预期进球的数量，但在我看来，皮卡莱宁和Pitkänen缺阵的伤害没有博彩公司认为的那么大。总进球数少于2.5个的概率为59%。这个平局肯定不会让任何人感到惊讶，这个结果的概率是32%。至于SJK，中场球员瓦伦丁·加斯克和门将马蒂·豪基奥贾将缺席。马蒂亚斯Vainionpää和乌西塔洛一直在训练，但可能不会上场——至少不会打满90分钟。让我们仔细看看这场比赛。

SJK绝对比VPS强，客队的实力排名应该排在第三位，这反映了球队的实力。然而，他们并不比AC奥卢(排名第4)好到哪里去，这支表现不佳但在积分方面也不太走运的球队，还有洪卡、国米图尔库和VPS——他们目前的状态令人惊叹!在球员总市值方面，根据德国知名网站transnsfermarkt.com的数据，两支球队的差距并不大。这支球队的总市值约为310万欧元。至于游客，总市场价值略低于400万欧元。在我看来这有点太高了。在最近的一场比赛中，SJK主场1-2输给了芬兰最好的球队HJK。这场比赛非常有趣，有很多戏剧性的场面!我相信它满足了球迷的期望，给我和我的球迷带来了美味的赢家!SJK在上半场出人意料的强势，迫使hkk防守非常艰难。同样在上半场，jk的德扬·伊利耶夫受伤，被18岁的年轻而不知名的亚历克斯·拉穆拉取代，他上一次参加比赛是在2月份!这显然震惊了沪江，也让沪江在上半场的比赛中占据了主导地位。然而，无论如何，拉穆拉都不能因为上半场1-0的进球而受到指责。总的来说，他打了一场不错的比赛，显然还是有一些天赋的。是的，SJK本可以进更多的球。比赛完全改变了，主要是由于hkk教练科尔基阿库纳斯引进了一名新人中场罗吉奇，中场赫特马吉和前锋奥利桑亚。后者为hkk打进了2-1的制胜球。罗吉奇和赫特马伊开始统治中场!尽管有几次进球的机会，但香港在下半场的表现要好得多。SJK在1-1领先时太被动了。hkk证明了他们的等级和精神优势，正如我在很长的免费预览中所写的!hkk是一支强大的队伍，但不知怎的，我不完全相信SJK会在赛季结束时处于最佳状态，因为赌注很高。SJK击败了国际图尔库，但在客场1 - 2负于hkk之前，SJK是最受欢迎的球队，比赛开始时，SJK的胜率在2.30左右。我需要提到的是，国米在这场比赛中远没有达到最佳状态。是的，SJK在球场上稍微好一点，但也可以很容易打成平局——1-1或2-2。在此之前，SJK至少可以说是令人失望的客场对阵

SJK现在有35分，排在联赛第三，但是他们的积分只有29.97分!SJK在本赛季的许多比赛中都很幸运，这肯定是他们在这里被高估的主要原因——再一次。另一方面，VPS在积分榜上排名第六，他们的账户上有24分，但在xPTS方面应该得到更多。现在他们绝对是这个联盟的前五名球队之一!SJK在维克考斯利加“仅”打进22球。VPS也进了22个球。SJK和VPS的最后一次交锋是在6月8日的Seinäjoki，尽管主队很明显是夺冠热门——比赛开始时定价在1.80左右，但这场比赛还是非常平衡的。VPS的进球次数、射正次数(6胜3负)、危险射门次数(69胜59负)更多。不过SJK确实有更多的攻击。在6月，VPS踢得很好，但在预期进球(xG)方面总是不走运。事实上，在7月初之前，他们的大部分游戏都是如此。他们已经取得了惊人的六连胜，并且在这六场比赛中只丢了一个球。多么惊人的记录啊!我想特别提一下7月8日在库奥皮奥对阵尤普斯的比赛。up是芬兰第二好的球队，但VPS以1比0的比分赢了，因为他们是大输家——博彩公司开出的赔率超过4.00 !他们有57%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数(14胜7负)，射门次数(6胜1负)，角球次数(10胜1负)，进攻和危险进攻——83胜39负。VPS非常自信，有一个伟大的教练，根据我的消息来源，他们的团队精神也很出色。此外，他们在这六场比赛中赢了五场，比分超过一球!球场预计将售罄，所以这里的主场优势比维克考斯利加的平均优势更大。我不确定博彩公司是否完全意识到这一点。就防守质量而言，SJK确实有优势，但毕竟不是很明显。VPS在韦克考斯利甲丢了19个球，他们的预期失球数(xGA)是18.02。我想强调的是，SJK的预期失球数(xGA)是16.02，但他们只丢了12个球。上赛季他们只排在第6位，比VPS强不了多少。SJK有很多和上赛季一样的球员，他们中的许多人本赛季的表现都超过了正常水平。