Accrington Stanley VS Bradford City

Accrington welcome Bradford for this English EFL Cup – also known as Carabao Cup – battle at The Wham Stadium early Wednesday Beijing time. Both teams play in the League Two, the fourth-tier of English football. The visitors play in the League One. Football fans and us serious football bettors cannot expect a relatively good-quality match here – even by this competition's not very high standards.. At this stage of the season most teams' offense is still pretty far from its best level - defending is, in general, much less complicated than attacking. Even so, the goal expectancy here is not exceptionally low, but I still see the match as more low-scoring than the bookmakers do.. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 58%. I want to highlight that his competition is not the main priority for either team this season and some squad rotating from both teams' managers would not surprise me – even despite the fact that the season has just started.. The League Two is a surprisingly demanding league with a lot of physical games – with intense fighting for every ball.. Avoiding injuries and getting too tired is important in this Carabao Cup game..

In matches where neither team are presumably quite 100% motivated – or do not play with the best starting eleven at least for the full 90 minutes – the home advantage is often bigger than usual but as a professional bettor I have taken this into account... Furthermore, I of course do realize  that the home advantage in England is bigger than in many other countries, for example Sweden, Norway or Finland. However, Accrington do not have very good fans by English standards.. I must disagree with the biggest, sometimes pretty smart bookies, who accept the biggest bets from their customers. These bookies see Accrington as the favorites here – offering them odds of around 2.50 to beat the visitors. Indeed, based on my sophisticated, in-depth expert analysis Bradford deserve favorites to win with the expected lineups1 The Accrington players total market value according to Transfermarkt.com, a well-respected and well-known source, is around 2.6 million euros which is a very low number even by League Two standards! The Bradford squad, on the other hand, is valued at some 5.1 million which is still too low in my opinion! The visitors have much more talent than Accrington in the squad and do have an edge in all areas of the game!

Last season Accrington played in the League One and finished in 23rd place in the League Two with only points 44 in their pocket. Their number of expected points (xPTS) was, however, even lower – 39.02 to be precise. It was clear that they are a way too weak team to play in the League One. I do not expect them to be a top-6 team even in the League Two.. I do nut fully understand why the bookies respect them this so much.. Their defense was abysmal last season and they conceded 77 goals in League One. Furthermore, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) was even higher – 82.02 and their defense does have some weaknesses even taking into account that the strikers on average are worse in the League Two than in the League One.. Bradford were strong last season and ended up in the 6th place in the League Two with 76 points and were very disappointing as a whole. I see them being at big risk of being even a little better this season. Their number of xPTS last season was 78.04.. There is some true talent in their squad and I don't 100% trust their manager though..They lost their most recent game 0-1 in the hands of Crawley away from home as favorites – priced around 2.00 to win. They were a little disappointing as a whole – no denying that.. The bookies, however, seem to have overreacted to this result! The match was, after all, a relatively balanced one. The visitors recorded many more shots on goal, corner kicks (4-2) attacks(56-46). The hosts did generate a little more in xG though – 1.12-0.93. Accrington, on the other hand, beat Newport as favorites at home in their most recent game 3-0. This result, however, is extremely misleading! Newport, who are not a great team, generated 1.98 in expected goals (xG) – the hosts managed just 1.07! Moreover, Newport recorded more goal attempts, shots of goal and attacks – 58-37. Both teams managed just 58 attacks in this pretty low-level encounter.

阿克灵顿斯坦利VS布拉德福德城

北京时间周三凌晨，阿克灵顿将在威猛球场迎来布拉德福德的英格兰联赛杯之战。两支球队都在英乙联赛踢球，这是英国足球的第四梯队。客队参加甲级联赛。球迷和我们这些认真的足球投注者不能指望这里有一场相对高质量的比赛——即使以这项比赛的标准不是很高。在这个赛季的这个阶段，大多数球队的进攻还远远没有达到最佳水平——防守，一般来说，比进攻要简单得多。即便如此，这里的进球预期并不是特别低，但我仍然认为这场比赛比博彩公司认为的更低。总进球数少于2.5个的概率为58%。我想强调的是，他的竞争并不是这两支球队本赛季的首要任务，而且两支球队的主教练轮换出场并不会让我感到惊讶——即使赛季才刚刚开始。英乙是一个要求非常高的联赛，有很多身体对抗的比赛，每个球都有激烈的争夺。在这场卡拉宝杯比赛中，避免受伤和过度疲劳是很重要的。

在两队都不是百分百斗志昂起的比赛中——或者至少在90分钟内都没有最好的首发11人——主场优势往往比平时更大，但作为一名职业投注者，我已经考虑到了这一点……此外，我当然意识到英格兰的主场优势比许多其他国家都要大，比如瑞典、挪威或芬兰。然而，按照英国的标准，阿克灵顿并没有很好的球迷。我必须反对那些最大的，有时是相当聪明的赌徒，他们接受客户最大的赌注。这些博彩公司认为阿克灵顿在这里是最受欢迎的，他们提供了2.50左右的赔率来击败访客。事实上，根据我老练而深入的专家分析，凭借预期的阵容，布拉德福德应该是最受欢迎的。根据Transfermarkt.com，一个备受尊敬和知名的来源，阿克灵顿球员的总市值约为260万欧元，即使按照英乙的标准，这也是一个非常低的数字!另一方面，布拉德福德的阵容价值510万英镑，在我看来还是太低了!客队比阿克灵顿有更多的天赋，在比赛的各个方面都有优势!

上个赛季，阿克灵顿在英甲踢球，仅以44分的成绩排在英乙第23位。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)甚至更低，准确地说是39.02。很明显，他们是一支太弱的球队，无法在英甲比赛。我不指望他们能进入前六，即使是在英乙。我不能完全理解为什么博彩公司如此尊重他们…上个赛季他们的防守糟透了，他们在英甲丢了77个球。此外，他们的预期失球数(xGA)甚至更高——82.02个，他们的防守确实有一些弱点，即使考虑到他们的前锋在英乙的平均水平比英甲还要差。布拉德福德上赛季很强大，以76分的成绩排在英乙第6位，整体上非常令人失望。我认为他们本赛季可能会有很大的风险。他们上赛季的得分是78.04。他们的阵容中有一些真正的天才，但我不是100%相信他们的教练，他们最近的一场比赛在客场0-1输给了克劳利，他们被认为是最受欢迎的球队，他们的胜率在2.00左右。他们整体上有点令人失望——不可否认……然而，博彩公司似乎对这个结果反应过度了!毕竟，这场比赛是一场相对平衡的比赛。客队有更多的射门和角球(4比2)，进攻(56比46)。不过，主机在xG中确实产生了更多——1.12-0.93。另一方面，阿克灵顿队在最近的一场比赛中以3比0击败了纽波特队。然而，这个结果极具误导性!纽波特，这支不怎么优秀的球队，产生了1.98个预期进球(xG)，而东道主只打入了1.07个!此外，新港队的进球次数、射门次数和进攻次数都更多——58比37。在这场低级别的交锋中，两支球队都只有58次进攻。