Sutton United VS Cambridge United

Sutton United and Cambridge United lock horns in this English EFL Cup – also known as Carabao Cup - clash at Gander Green Lane in London early Wednesday Beijing time. The hosts play in the League Two, the fourth-tier of English football. The visitors play in the League One but the difference between these leagues is not very big. We can expect a relatively low-quality match here – even by this competition's standards.. In the early season most teams' offense is still far from the best level - defending is, in general, much easier than attacking. Even so, the goal expectancy here is not exceptionally low, but I still see the match as more low-scoring than the bookmakers do.. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 57%. This competition is not the main priority for either team and some squad rotating from both teams' manager would not – even despite the fact that the season has just started. The League One and Two are surprisingly demanding leagues with a lot of physical games where players are expected to fight hard for every ball.. Avoiding injuries and fatigue is important in this cup game. In games where neither team are possibly quite 100% motivated – or do not play with the best starting eleven – the home advantage is often bigger than on average.. We must also remember that the home advantage in England is bigger than in many other countries, for example Sweden or Finland. The fans must be excited about the season starting and do not want to see their favorites not fighting very hard at home. Furthermore, Sutton do have demanding and loyal fans who offer a massive boost for them. I must disagree with the biggest, sometimes pretty smart bookies, who accept the biggest bets from customers. The bookies see Cambridge as favorites here – offering them odds of around 2.55-2.60 to emerge victorious. . Based on my in-depth expert analysis Sutton are narrow favorites to win with the expected lineups. I do expect their odds to go down before the kick off though as sharp money is expected to pile up on them.

Last season Sutton finished in 14th place in the League Two with 58 points to their account. Their number of expected points (xPTS) was, however, much higher – 62.03 to be precise. I do expect to be a little better this season than last season when they were sometimes pretty lame offensively – netting the ball just 46 times in 46 League Two matches. Their number of expected goals (xG) was, however, 51.12. I expect them to be more productive this season.. They do have some talented, pretty creative players in the squad. They should move the ball faster and the midfielders should be more active in defending for them to make it to the top-10.. Their defense, on the other hand, was pretty solid last season and they allowed 58 goals in the League Two, just four more than Salford who ended up in 7th place! However, they should be able to improve further a little in this area of the game.- Cambridge in the 20th place in the League One with 46 points and were very disappointing as a whole. I see them being at big risk of being relegated after this season..  Their number of xPTS was only 42.33. There is not much true talent in their squad and I don't really trust their manager..They won their most recent game 2-0, beating Oxford United at home as underdogs – priced around 3.50 to win. The match, however, was a relatively balanced one. The visitors even had 70% ball possession and recorded many more corner kicks (9-2), attacks(120-89) and dangerous attacks - 46-37. Cambridge generated just 0.21 in xG, Oxford recorded even less though – 0.16.. The visitors would have deserved a point and it seems that the betting market has overreacted to this pretty lucky win Cambridge managed to escape with.. Sutton were on fire in their most recent game crashing a good team, Notts County 5-1 at home. They had just 30% ball possession but recorded more shots on goal – 6-3. Moreover, Sutton generated 1.34 in xG – the visitors managed just 0.39 but did receive a red card in the first half. Sutton were clear underdogs in this game – priced close to 4.00 to take all three points. It was clear that the betting market had, once again, underestimated this small club from London!

萨顿联队VS剑桥联队

北京时间周三凌晨，萨顿联队和剑桥联队将在英格兰联赛杯(也被称为卡拉宝杯)上交锋。东道主在英乙联赛踢球，这是英国足球的第四梯队。客队参加的是英甲联赛，但这两个联赛之间的差距不是很大。我们可以期待一场质量相对较低的比赛——即使按照这项赛事的标准。在赛季初期，大多数球队的进攻还远没有达到最好的水平——通常来说，防守要比进攻容易得多。即便如此，这里的进球预期并不是特别低，但我仍然认为这场比赛比博彩公司认为的更低。总进球数少于2.5个的概率为57%。这场比赛对任何一支球队来说都不是最重要的，即使赛季刚刚开始，两队主教练轮换的一些阵容也不会是最重要的。英甲和英乙的要求非常高，有很多身体对抗的比赛，球员们需要为每一个球拼搏。在这场杯赛中，避免受伤和疲劳是很重要的。在两支球队都不是百分百有动力的比赛中，或者不是拥有最好的首发11人的比赛中，主场优势往往大于平均水平。我们还必须记住，英格兰的主场优势比许多其他国家都大，比如瑞典或芬兰。球迷们一定对新赛季的开始感到兴奋，不想看到他们最喜欢的球队在主场打得不好。此外，萨顿确实有苛刻和忠诚的粉丝，他们为他们提供了巨大的支持。我必须反对那些最大的，有时是相当聪明的赌徒，他们接受客户最大的赌注。博彩公司认为剑桥队在这里是最受欢迎的，他们开出的胜率约为2.55-2.60。根据我深入的专家分析，根据预期的阵容，萨顿队获胜的可能性很小。我确实预计他们的赔率会在开球前下降，尽管预计会有大量资金涌入他们身上。

上赛季萨顿在英乙联赛中以58分排名第14。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)要高得多——准确地说是62.03。我确实希望这个赛季能比上赛季好一点，上赛季他们的进攻很差劲，在46场英乙比赛中只有46次进球。然而，他们的预期进球数(xG)为51.12。我希望他们这个赛季能更有效率。他们确实有一些很有天赋，很有创造力的球员。为了进入前十，他们应该更快地转移球，中场球员应该更积极地防守。另一方面，上赛季他们的防守相当稳固，他们在英乙联赛中丢了58个球，只比排名第七的索尔福德多4个!然而，他们应该能够进一步提高一点在这个领域的游戏。剑桥以46分排在英甲联赛第20位，整体表现非常令人失望。我认为他们在这个赛季之后很有可能降级。他们的xPTS数量只有42.33个。他们的阵容中没有多少真正有天赋的球员，我也不太相信他们的教练。他们最近的一场比赛以2比0的比分赢了牛津联队，当时他们处于下风，胜率在3.5英镑左右。然而，这场比赛是一场相对平衡的比赛。客队甚至拥有70%的控球率，并且创造了更多的角球(9比2)、进攻(120比89)和危险进攻(46比37)。剑桥大学在2010年的数据仅为0.21，牛津大学的数据更少，为0.16。客队本应得到一分，但似乎赌博市场对剑桥队侥幸获胜反应过度了。萨顿在最近一场比赛中火力全开，主场5-1击败了一支强队诺茨郡。他们只有30%的控球率，但射门次数更多——6比3。此外，萨顿在比赛中创造了1.34个进球，而客队在上半场只创造了0.39个进球，但却领到了一张红牌。萨顿在这场比赛中明显处于下风，价格接近4.00，可以拿到全部三分。很明显，博彩市场再一次低估了这家来自伦敦的小俱乐部!