Huddersfield Town VS Middlesbrough

Huddersfield and Middlesbrough lock horns in this English EFL Cup – also known as Carabao Cup - clash at John Smith's Stadium early Wednesday Beijing time. Both teams in the Championship, the second-tier of English football. We can expect a relatively high-quality match here – by this competition's standards I mean. In the early season most teams' offense is still far from the maximum level - defending is much easier than attacking. Even so, the goal expectancy here is not particularly low but I still see the match as more low-scoring than the betting market does.. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 55%. This competition is not the main priority for either team and some squad rotation is expected – even despite the fact that the season has just started. The Championship is a very demanding league with a lot of physical games.. Avoiding injuries and fatigue is important. In games where neither team are perhaps quite 100% motivated – or does not play with the best starting eleven – the home advantage is usually bigger than on average. We must also take into account that the home advantage in England is bigger than in many other countries. The fans are excited about the season starting and do not tolerate their favorites not to fight hard at home. Furthermore, Huddersfield do have loud and loyal fans who offer a big boost for them. Moreover, they have not lost any of their latest seven games at home – winning most of these seven games! I have to disagree with the biggest, sometimes pretty smart bookies, who offer the biggest betting limits, who see Middlesbrough as very clear favorites. The odds on the visitors to win are at around 2.00 at the time of writing this analysis Tuesday evening Beijing time. I see them having a probability of 40% to win with the expected lineups. I do expect their odds to go up before the kick off though as smart money is expected to pile up on the hosts. Huddersfield with the +0.5 goals handicap is the obvious smart bet for my fans and me! 

The visitors do have an edge in all areas of the game and their squad's total market value, according to Transfermarkt.com, is higher than that of the hosts'. Last season they finished in 4th place in the Championship with 75 points to their account. Their number of expected points (xPTS) was 71.02 and I expect to be worse this season than last season when they were strong, especially offensively – netting the ball 84 times but their number of expected goals (xG) was ”only! 77.12. I expect them to be less efficient this season.. Their defense, on the other hand, was surprisingly leaky last season and they allowed 56 goals in the Championship, more than Stoke who ended up in the 14th place! However, they should be able to improve a little in this area of the game. Huddersfield finished last season in the 18th place with 54 points but have the potential to improve this season.  Their number of xPTS was 56.34. There is talent in their squad and they have a good manager too! They lost their most recent game 1-3 against Plymouth as underdogs. The match, however, was a pretty balanced one. The visitors even recorded many more corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks - 45-19. The hosts generated 1.79 in xG, Huddersfield managed 1.76. They would have deserved a point and it seems that the betting market has overreacted to this loss.. Middlesbrough were were lame in their most recent game losing to Millwall 0-1 at home. Their offense lacked speed, creativity and passing accuracy near the opponent's goal. Both teams recorded just two shots on goal. Moreover, Milwall generated 1.45 in xG – poor Middlesbrough managed just 0.49!

哈德斯菲尔德VS米德尔斯堡

哈德斯菲尔德和米德尔斯堡将在北京时间周三早些时候在约翰史密斯球场进行英格兰联赛杯(也被称为卡拉宝杯)的比赛。两支球队都参加了英冠联赛，这是英国足球的二级联赛。我们可以期待一场相对高质量的比赛——我的意思是按照这项比赛的标准。在赛季初，大多数球队的进攻还远没有达到最高水平——防守比进攻容易得多。即便如此，这里的进球预期并不是特别低，但我仍然认为这场比赛比博彩市场更低。总进球数少于2.5个的概率为55%。这场比赛对两支球队来说都不是首要任务，尽管赛季才刚刚开始，但还是会有一些轮换。英冠是一个要求很高的联赛，有很多身体对抗的比赛。避免受伤和疲劳很重要。在比赛中，如果两支球队的积极性都不是100%，或者首发阵容不是最好的11人，主场优势通常会大于平均水平。我们还必须考虑到英格兰的主场优势比其他许多国家都大。球迷们对新赛季的开始感到兴奋，不能容忍他们的最爱在主场不努力。此外，哈德斯菲尔德确实有响亮而忠诚的球迷，他们为他们提供了巨大的支持。此外，他们在最近的7场主场比赛中没有输过一场，而且赢得了这7场比赛中的大部分!我不同意最大的，有时是相当聪明的赌徒，他们提供最大的赌注限制，他们认为米德尔斯堡是非常明显的热门。在北京时间周二晚上写这篇分析时，客队获胜的赔率约为2.00。我认为他们在预期的阵容下有40%的获胜概率。我确实预计他们的赔率会在开球前上升，因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在东道主身上。哈德斯菲尔德有+0.5个进球障碍，对我和我的球迷来说显然是明智的赌注!

客队在比赛的各个方面都有优势，根据Transfermarkt.com的数据，客队的总市场价值高于主队。上个赛季，他们以75分的成绩在积分榜上排名第四。他们的预期得分(xPTS)是71.02，我预计本赛季会比上赛季更糟糕，上赛季他们很强，尤其是进攻端，他们有84次进球，但他们的预期进球(xG)是“只有!”77.12. 我预计他们本赛季的效率会降低。另一方面，他们的防守在上个赛季出人意料地漏洞百出，他们在英冠联赛中丢了56个球，比排在第14位的斯托克城还多!然而，他们应该能够在这方面有所提高。哈德斯菲尔德上赛季以54分排名第18位，但本赛季有提升的潜力。xPTS数为56.34个。他们的队伍里有很多天才，而且他们有一个很好的教练!他们在最近的一场比赛中以1-3输给了普利茅斯队。然而，这场比赛还是相当平衡的。客队甚至创造了更多的角球、进攻和危险进攻——45胜19负。主机在xG中生成1.79,Huddersfield生成1.76。他们本应该得到一分，但似乎赌博市场对这场失利反应过度了。米德尔斯堡在最近一场主场0-1输给米尔沃尔的比赛中表现不佳。他们的进攻缺乏速度、创造力和在对手球门附近传球的准确性。两支球队都只射门两次。此外，米尔沃尔在上赛季攻入1.45球，而可怜的米德尔斯堡只攻入0.49球!