Renofa Yamaguchi VS Oita Trinita

Renofa Yamaguchi welcome Oita Trinita for this Japanese J2 League round 29 battle at Ishin Me-Life Stadium Sunday evening Beijing time. This league is of relatively low-level by international standards.  The difference compared to the J1 League, the first tier, is big.. Football lovers and us serious profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of pretty mediocre level even by J2 League standards between these two teams. Results-wise Renofa Yamguchi are having a disappointing season in the J2 League so far and currently occupy the 19th place in the standings with a total of 22 clubs. However, they are just two points behind Vegalta Sendai who are currently in 14th place.. The hosts have taken only 31 points so far. In my power rating that reflects the teams pure class they are currently in 14th place. Oita Trinita, on the other hand, are in 9th place in this rating. They currently occupy the 7th place in the standings and have 45 points to their account. Last season they finished in 5th place but have been clearly worse this season! The bookies do not seem to have fully realized this and subsequently overvalue them – once again! Even so, they are the better team here, of course, but my point is that the difference between them and Renofa Yamaguchi is smaller than the betting market estimates. Indeed, the biggest, sometimes relatively sharp bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers see the visitors as pretty clear favorites here – offering them odds of around 2.20 to travel home with all three points. I have to disagree and see Oita Trinita only as very narrow favorites! The obvious smart bet here is the +0.5 goals handicap on the hosts! The home advantage here is substantial and must be given enough emphasis. The visitors have not been great on the road this season and have a weak goal difference of 14:17 away from home. 

The draw would most probably not surprise anyone and the probability of this result is high by this league's standards – 32% to be precise. Furthermore, the goal expectancy here is much lower than in this league on average but the bookies, too, realize this and my estimation on the under 2.5 total goal to be scored is only modestly bigger than that of the bookmakers'. Yes, the hosts suffered an ugly defeat in their most recent game in the hands of Chiba away from home 0-4 as big underdogs on the betting market. Chiba were the better team on the pitch but the final score is still misleading! Renofa Yamaguchi had 58% ball possession and they,too, had their chances to score! Indeed, they recorded eight goal attempts and more shots off goal, total passes and completed passes than Chiba. The hosts recorded just two more attacks - 82-80. In a match before this they lost to Blaublitz 1-2 at home despite 70% ball possession. They have conceded a total of 44 goals in this league so far which is too much to fight for a top-10 place – taking into account that they lack offensive power.. Indeed, they have netted the ball just 22 times in this league so far but their number of expected goals (xG) is much higher – 28.02 and they have potential to score more goals per game than they have so far.. Renofa Yamaguchi's number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 39.12. Furthermore, their number of expected points (xPTS) is 36.01.

Before the two losses mentioned above the hosts played six games in a row without a defeat – winning three of these six matches! Quite amazingly they did not allow any goals in these six games! Oita Trinita, on the other hand, have 45 points to their account which is much more than they would have deserved in terms of xPTS! Quite interestingly, they even have a negative score difference – 34-35 to be precise. They have been in poor form winning just one of their latest seven matches and losing 4/5 of their most recent games. In their latest game they lost to Montedio Yamagata 0-1 at home as slim favorites according to the bookies. They did have chances to score but lacked offensive creativity and passing accuracy at critical moments - only recorded two shots on target.. Before this they lost to Iwaki, currently in 18th place, 1-2 at home as solid favorites on the betting market. It was a very disappointing performance and they would need to improve from these two games - or get lucky - to take a win here..

山口雷诺法VS大分三一

北京时间周日晚，山口Renofa将在Ishin Me-Life体育场迎来日本J2联赛第29轮比赛的大田三田。按照国际标准，这个联赛的水平相对较低。与第一梯队J1联赛相比，差距很大……足球爱好者和我们这些极度渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待这两支球队之间的比赛，即使按照J2联赛的标准，也是相当平庸的水平。截止目前，雷诺法在J2联赛的表现令人失望，目前在共有22家俱乐部的J2联赛中排名第19位。然而，他们只落后仙台Vegalta两分，后者目前排在第14位。东道主目前只拿到31分。在我的纯实力排名中，他们目前排在第14位。另一方面，大ita Trinita在这一排名中排名第九。他们目前在积分榜上排名第七，有45分。上赛季他们排名第五，但本赛季显然更糟了!博彩公司似乎没有完全意识到这一点，随后又高估了他们的价值!即便如此，他们在这里当然是更好的球队，但我的观点是，他们与山口雷诺法之间的差距比博彩市场估计的要小。事实上，那些接受客户最大赌注的最大的、有时相对精明的博彩公司认为，在这里，游客显然是最受欢迎的——给他们提供2.20左右的赔率，让他们带着全部三分回家。我不同意，认为大ita Trinita只是一个非常小的热门!显然明智的赌注是东道主的+0.5个进球障碍!主场优势是巨大的，必须给予足够的重视。客队本赛季在客场表现不佳，客场净胜球仅为14:17。

这个平局很可能不会让任何人感到惊讶，以联赛的标准来看，这个结果的概率很高——准确地说，是32%。此外，这里的进球预期远低于这个联赛的平均水平，但博彩公司也意识到了这一点，我对总进球数低于2.5的估计只比博彩公司的估计略高。是的，东道主在最近的一场比赛中以0比4惨败于千叶，在博彩市场上被视为大输家。千叶队在球场上表现更好，但最终比分仍然误导人!山口雷诺法有58%的控球率，他们也有机会得分!事实上，他们的进球次数为8次，射门次数、总传球次数和完成传球次数都比千叶多。东道主只记录了两次攻击——82比80。在此之前的一场比赛中，他们在主场1-2输给了Blaublitz，尽管控球率为70%。到目前为止，他们在联赛中总共丢了44个球，考虑到他们缺乏进攻力量，这对争夺前十的位置来说太困难了。事实上，到目前为止，他们在联赛中只有22次进球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)要高得多，达到28.02个，而且他们有潜力每场比赛进更多的球。山口雷诺法的预期失球数(xGA)为39.12。此外，它们的期望值点数(xPTS)为36.01。

在上面提到的两场失利之前，主队连续打了六场比赛，没有输过一场，赢了其中的三场!令人惊讶的是，他们在这六场比赛中没有让任何进球!另一方面，大ita Trinita在他们的账户上有45分，这远远超过了他们应得的xPTS!非常有趣的是，他们甚至有负的得分差——准确地说是34-35。他们最近7场比赛只赢了1场，最近5场比赛输了4场。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场0-1输给了山形Montedio Yamagata，根据博彩公司的说法，他们的胜算很小。他们确实有进球的机会，但在关键时刻缺乏进攻创造力和传球准确性——只有2次射正。在此之前，他们输给了目前排名第18位的磐城队，主场1胜2负，是博彩市场上最受欢迎的球队。这是一场非常令人失望的比赛，他们需要从这两场比赛中有所提高，或者运气好的话，才能在这里取得胜利。