A GREAT match to bet on! $$$
2023-08-06

Tapio

外籍分析师

日乙

08/06 18:00

已完赛

解读理由:

Omiya Ardija VS Blaublitz Akita


Omiya Ardija host Blaublitz for this Japanese J2 League round 29 battle at Soyu Stadium Saturday evening Beijing time. This league is of somewhat low-level by international standards.  The difference compared to the J1 League, the first tier, is bi.. Football lovers and us profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of relatively low level by J2 League standards between these two lowly teams. Blaublitz are having a mediocre season in the J2 League so far and currently occupy the 13th place in the standings with a total of 22 clubs. Last season they finished in 13th place with 56 points to their account. They have grabbed only 35 points so far. In my power rating that reflects the teams pure class they are currently in 15th place. I have lowered their power rating from my sophisticated, in-depth - strongly data-based preseason analysis. Omiya Ardija, on the other hand, are in the 17th place in this ranking. Most of my fans probably know by now that I never let the standings fool me! Indeed, the hosts are in the 22nd place in the league table but by pure class they are a much better team! Their number of xPTS is significantly higher than the actual number of just 22.. They have massively improved their level of football in recent weeks and have not lost any of their latest three games. A low-scoring draw They have looked much more confident lately than in the spring. The bookies do not seem to have fully realized this improvement and continue to undervalue them. I cannot agree with the biggest, sometimes pretty sharp bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers. These bookies see the visitors as favorites here – offering them odds of around 2.60 to take all three points. I see the hosts, boosted by their loyal fans, as favorites – not clear though.. This means that  -  with the expected lineups -  the obvious smart bet is Omiya Ardija +0.5 goals! 

The visitors do have an edge in terms of defensive quality - they have allowed 29 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is a bit higher – 31.01 to be precise. The hosts, on the other hand, have conceded 47 goals but their number of xGA is ”only” 41.21. They have allowed just one goal in their latest three games and have significantly improved their defensive structure lately. When taking a look at both team's offensive firepower we can see that Omiya Ardija are, in fact, a little better! They have netted the ball 25 times in this league. Their number of expected goals (xG) is higher – 29.12. The visitors, on the other hand, have been very lame offensively. They have scored just 23 goals so far in J2 League. This is the second-lowest number in this league! However, they can improve in this area of the game and their number of expected goals (xG) is 27.02. Blaublitz have not been impressive at all lately and have not looked confident on the pitch in most of their recent games.. Indeed, they have won just two of their latest 13 matches!

In their most recent game the visitors were the better team on the pitch at home against Kusatsu but lacked speed, creativity and especially passing accuracy near the opponent's goal. It was a 0-0 draw. Blaublitz were priced weirdly low on the betting market at the time of kick off – around 1.80. Before this they did, however, beat Renofa Yamaguchi, 2-1 away from home that the bookies saw as more or less as a coin toss, a 50-50% match without a favorite.. Quite interestingly the Renofa had 70% ball possession and recorded more dangerous attacks. Blaublitz did, however, have more scoring attempts. It was a pretty low-level game as a whole and Blaublitz failed to truly impress me – once again.. Before this they were decent at home against Kumamoto, who are currently in 15th place, as solid underdogs on the betting market. However, Kumamoto played a weak game.. 

On the 5th of this July Kofu, currently in 5th place, humiliated Blaublitz 5-1 who looked incredibly vulnerable defensively! Omiya Ardija were strong in their most recent game against Kanazawa as clear underdogs according to the bookies. Even so, they had 55% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts (16-12), shots on and off goal as well as corner kicks. We can say that they deserved the win but a draw would not have been an unjustified result either. Before this they were not at their best but took a point away from home against Mito through a goalless draw as big underdogs – priced around 4.50 to win by the bookies. No goals were scored in Omiya Ardija's home game against Tochigi on the 16th of July either. It was a balanced clash despite the visitors being the favorites on the betting market..



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

大宫阿迪加VS秋田Blaublitz


北京时间周六晚,日本J2联赛第29轮比赛将在Soyu体育场举行。按照国际标准,这个联赛的水平有些低。与第一梯队J1联赛相比,差距是两倍……足球爱好者和我们这些渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待这两支低水平球队之间的比赛,以J2联赛的标准来看,这是一场相对较低水平的比赛。目前,Blaublitz在J2联赛中表现平平,共有22支球队,排名第13位。上赛季他们以56分的积分排名第13。到目前为止,他们只拿到了35分。在我的纯实力排名中,他们目前排在第15位。在季前赛的分析中,我已经降低了他们的能量等级。另一方面,Omiya Ardija在该排行榜上排名第17位。我的大多数粉丝现在可能都知道,我从不让排名欺骗我!的确,东道主在联赛中排名第22位,但从纯粹的水平来看,他们是一支更好的球队!他们的xPTS数量远远高于实际的22个。最近几周他们的足球水平有了很大的提高,最近三场比赛没有输过一场。他们最近看起来比春天时自信多了。博彩公司似乎没有完全意识到这一改善,并继续低估它们。我不同意那些最大的、有时相当精明的赌徒接受客户最大的赌注。这些博彩公司认为访客队在这里是最受欢迎的,他们提供了大约2.60的赔率来获得所有三分。我认为在忠实粉丝的支持下,东道主是最受欢迎的——尽管还不清楚……这意味着——在预期的阵容中——显然明智的赌注是奥米亚·阿迪贾+0.5个进球!

客队在防守质量上确实有优势——他们丢了29个球,但他们的预期失球(xGA)要高一些——准确地说是31.01个。另一方面,东道主丢了47个球,但他们的射门次数“只有”41.21。他们在最近的三场比赛中只丢了一个球,最近他们的防守结构有了很大的改善。当我们看一下两支球队的进攻火力时,我们可以看到,奥米亚·阿迪贾实际上要好一点!在这个联赛中他们已经25次得球。他们的预期进球数(xG)更高,为29.12。另一方面,客队在进攻端表现得很差劲。到目前为止,他们在J2联赛中只进了23个球。这是联盟第二低的数据!然而,他们在这方面还可以提高,他们的预期进球数(xG)是27.02。Blaublitz最近一点都不令人印象深刻,在最近的大多数比赛中看起来都不自信。事实上,他们在最近的13场比赛中只赢了两场!

在最近的一场比赛中,客队在主场对阵草津的比赛中表现得更好,但缺乏速度、创造力,尤其是在对手球门附近的传球准确性。这是一场0比0的平局。在开球时,Blaublitz在博彩市场上的价格出奇的低——大约1.80。然而,在此之前,他们在客场2-1击败了山口雷诺法,博彩公司认为这或多或少就像抛硬币一样,一场50-50%的比赛,没有最受欢迎的球队。非常有趣的是雷诺法有70%的控球率,并且记录了更多的危险进攻。然而,Blaublitz确实有更多的得分尝试。这是一款相当低级的游戏,Blaublitz也没能给我留下深刻的印象。在此之前,他们在主场对阵熊本的比赛中表现不错,熊本目前排名第15位,在博彩市场上是绝对的弱者。然而,熊本打了一场弱比赛。

今年7月5日,目前排名第五的口福以5比1的比分羞辱了防守不堪一击的Blaublitz !根据博彩公司的说法,在最近与金泽的比赛中,大宫队表现强劲,显然处于劣势。即便如此,他们的控球率为55%,进球次数(16-12次)、射正、射外以及角球次数也更多。我们可以说他们配得上这场胜利,但平局也不是不公平的结果。在此之前,他们并没有处于最佳状态,但在主场对阵水户的比赛中,他们以一场0比0的平局拿到了一分。在7月16日的主场对阵枥木的比赛中,奥米亚·阿迪贾也没有进球。尽管客队在博彩市场上最受欢迎,但这是一场势均力敌的比赛。

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