V-Varen Nagasaki VS Roasso Kumamoto

V-Varen Nagasaki host Kumatoto for this Japanese J2 League round 28 battle at Transcosmos Stadium Nagasaki Saturday evening Beijing time. This league is of somewhat low level by global standards. The bookmakers seem to make quite a lot of mistakes with their odds in J2 League – maybe because they put more resources on the big leagues that are played in the summer – such as the Brazilian Serie, Argentinian Ligo Pro A and the MLS where even the legendary Leo Messi plays now! The difference compared to the J1 League, the first tier, is considerable. Football fans and us profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of a slightly better than average level by J2 League standards between these two teams. V-Varen Nagasaki and Kumamoto last locked horns in March and the then visitors escaped with a undeserved 2-0 win. Kumamoto were the better team but were very inefficient offensively recording just one shot on goal. V-Varen managed two shots on goal. Kumamoto had 66% ball possession and also recorded many more attacks (74-55) and dangerous attacks (44-35) They would have deserved at least a point. I believe that the result of this match affects the odds too heavily here! Indeed, most of the biggest, sometimes quite sharp bookies with the biggest betting limits see this match as a very balanced one offering both teams odds of around 2.65 to take all three points. The odds on Kumamoto have unsurprisingly dropped a lot from the starting odds of over 3.50. With the expected lineups the visitors deserve to be solid favorites here! I see the goal expectancy as more low-scoring than the betting market does and the probability of under 2.5 total goals is 54%. Neither team have really convinced me offensively lately. Furthermore, a draw would certainly surprise noone and the probability of this result is 31%. Most importantly it would be enough to bring my fans and me yet another winner with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap option on Kumamoto!

Kumamoto currently occupy the 14th place in the standings with a total of 32 points in their pocket. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is much higher – 39.78 to be precise! Most of my fans probably already know that I never let the league table fool me which is, in fact, one of the key things in profitable football betting! Kumamoto can, and I believe will, improve in all areas of the game as the season progresses! They have the players to do so! Let's not forget that last season they finished in 4th place with a respectable 67 points and a good goal difference of 58:48. Moreover they comfortably defeated V-Varen twice in this league last season - 3-1 and 2-0. There is, however, no denying the fact that they have been, compared to my sophisticated and in-depth preseason analysis, disappointing as a whole this season.. They have netted the ball 35 times in J2 League which is more than for example Oita Trinita, currently in 5th place. They have allowed 31 goals – also less than Oita Trinita, so it is rather weird that they have not been able to take more points. Even so, their defense has been the biggest disappointment this season despite the fact that their number of goals allowed (xGA) is just 27.98. Their defenders made too many silly individual mistakes especially in the early season.. They are in the 7th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. The hosts, on the other hand, are only in the 11th place in this ranking.

Despite the two consecutive losses in their most recent two games Kumamoto have looked better than the hosts on the pitch. In their latest game Kumamoto were extremely unlucky to lose to Okayama, currently in 9th place, 1-2 at home as slim favorites according to the bookies. Indeed, they had 56% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (20-9), shots in goal, total passes, completed passes as well as dangerous attacks. Obviously their level of confidence is not at its peak after a difficult season which is illustrated by difficulties in scoring. However, the betting market seems to give this factor too much emphasis.. The hosts have been a positive surprise this season but also have had a lot of luck on their side. They are in the 7th place with 42 points to their account but their number of xPTS is just 34.78. They have netted the ball 42 times and do have some firepower but let's keep in mind their number of expected goals (xG) is just 34.03! With the expected lineups they cannot match Kumamoto in any area of the game! Their defense has not been solid at all lately.. I expect Kumamoto to hurt them especially with fast counter attacks in this game. They do not also have the best fans in J2 League but of course the home advantage is still there.. They have won just one of their latest five games and were abysmal in their latest match – losing 1-5 away from home to Montedio Yamagata as underdogs according to the bookmakers. Yes, the match was more balanced than the final score suggests but their defense was a complete mess and would have to improve a lot in this area of the game to beat Kumamoto.. Before this they were the worst team on the pitch away from home against Okayama but grabbed a somewhat lucky point through a 2-2 draw. Furthermore, on the 9th of this month they were lame losing to Renofa yamaguchi, currently in 18th place, as solid favorites 0-1 at home. Last season they finished in 11th place with 56 points and a  weak score difference of 50:54. By pure class they should be at about the same level this season too and will almost certainly drop down in the standings during the remainder of the season! Many of their players have played above their normal level so far this season..

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长崎varen VS熊本roaso

北京时间周六晚，日本J2联赛第28轮比赛将在长崎Transcosmos体育场举行，长崎V-Varen主场迎战熊本。按照国际标准来看，这个联赛的水平比较低。博彩公司在J2联赛的赔率上似乎犯了很多错误——也许是因为他们把更多的资源放在了夏季举行的大联赛上——比如巴西甲级联赛、阿根廷甲级联赛和美国职业足球大联盟，现在连传奇人物里奥·梅西都在那里踢球!与第一梯队J1联赛相比，差距相当大。足球迷和我们这些渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待这两支球队之间的比赛比J2联赛的平均水平略好。长崎和熊本上一次交锋是在三月份，当时的客队以2:0的比分侥幸逃脱。熊本是一支更好的球队，但是进攻效率很低，只有一次射门。V-Varen射正了两脚。熊本拥有66%的控球率，并且有更多的进攻(74胜55负)和危险进攻(44胜35负)，他们至少应该得到一分。我相信这场比赛的结果对赔率的影响太大了!事实上，大多数最大的，有时是相当敏锐的博彩公司，他们的投注限额最大，认为这场比赛是一场非常平衡的比赛，为两支球队提供2.65左右的赔率来获得所有三分。不出所料，熊本获胜的赔率已经从最初的超过3.50的赔率大幅下降。有了预期的阵容，客队理应成为这里最受欢迎的球队!我认为进球预期比博彩市场更低，总进球数低于2.5的概率为54%。两支球队最近在进攻端都没有让我信服。此外，平局肯定不会让人感到意外，这种结果的概率是31%。最重要的是，这将足以给我和我的球迷带来另一个胜利，并推荐熊本+0.5进球障碍选项!

熊本目前以32分的积分排名第14位。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)要高得多——准确地说是39.78 !我的大多数球迷可能已经知道，我从不让积分榜欺骗我，事实上，这是盈利足球博彩的关键因素之一!熊本可以，而且我相信，随着赛季的进展，他会在比赛的各个方面都有所提高!他们有这样的球员!别忘了上赛季他们以67分和58:48的净胜球排名第四。此外，他们上赛季在联赛中两次轻松击败V-Varen - 3-1和2-0。然而，不可否认的事实是，与我对季前赛的深入分析相比，他们整个赛季都令人失望。他们在J2联赛中进球35次，比目前排名第五的大田三丽塔还要多。他们丢了31个球，也比大田三丽塔少，所以他们没能拿更多的分是很奇怪的。尽管如此，他们的防守是本赛季最令人失望的，尽管他们的失球数(xGA)只有27.98个。他们的后卫犯了太多愚蠢的个人错误，尤其是在赛季初。他们在我的力量排名中排名第七，这反映了球队的纯粹等级。另一方面，东道主仅排在第11位。

尽管在最近两场比赛中连续两场失利，但熊本在球场上的表现比东道主要好。在他们最近的比赛中，熊本非常不幸地输给了冈山，冈山目前排名第9，根据博彩公司的说法，主场1-2是微弱的希望。事实上，他们有56%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数(20-9次)、射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数以及危险进攻。很明显，在经历了一个艰难的赛季后，他们的信心并没有达到顶峰，这可以从进球的困难中看出。然而，博彩市场似乎过于强调这一因素。东道主本赛季给我们带来了惊喜，但他们也有很多运气。他们以42分排在第7位，但他们的xPTS数量只有34.78。他们有42次进球，并且确实有一些火力，但让我们记住他们的预期进球数(xG)只有34.03!以他们预期的阵容，他们在比赛的任何领域都无法与熊本相匹敌!他们的防守最近一点都不稳固。我希望熊本能在这场比赛中用快速反击来打击他们。他们在J2联赛中也没有最好的球迷，但当然主场优势仍然存在。的

他们在最近的五场比赛中只赢了一场，在最近的一场比赛中表现糟糕——根据博彩公司的数据，他们客场1-5输给了山形Montedio Yamagata。是的，这场比赛比最终比分显示的更加平衡，但他们的防守完全是一团糟，要想击败熊本，他们必须在这方面有很大的提高。在此之前，他们是客场对阵冈山的比赛中表现最差的球队，但在2-2战平后幸运地拿到了一分。此外，在本月9日，他们在主场0-1输给了目前排名第18位的山口雷诺法(Renofa yamaguchi)。上个赛季，他们以56分的成绩排在第11位，分差只有50:54。从纯粹的等级来看，他们本赛季也应该处于相同的水平，在本赛季剩下的时间里，他们的排名几乎肯定会下降!本赛季到目前为止，他们许多球员的发挥都超过了正常水平。