Tokyo Verdy vs Mito Hollyhock

Verdy welcome Mito for this Japanese J2 League round 28 battle at Ajinomoto Stadium Saturday afternoon Beijing time. This league is of relatively low-level by international standards. The bookies seem to make quite a lot of mistakes with their odds in this league – perhaps they put more resources on the big leagues that are played in the summer – such as the Brazilian Serie A and the MLS where even Leo Messi plays for Inter Miami now! The difference compared to the J1 League, the first tier, is significant. Football fans and us profit-orientated football bettors can expect a match of a little better than mediocre level by J2 League standards between these two teams. Even so, there is a considerable difference in pure class here. I expect the hosts to be aggressive right from the kickoff and control the events on the pitch for the most of the 90 minutes!

Verdy's home results this season have not been overly impressive but they have also been pretty unlucky in many balanced games at Ajinomoto Stadium so far this season. They do have good and loyal fans but this league's standards.. Verdy currently occupy the 3rd place in the standings and I do see them having a good chance of finishing in the top-3. Verdy have 48 points to their account but their number of expected points (xPTS) is 50.34. They have been better than I expected in my in-depth preseason analysis. The bookies, however, still keep on underestimating them and we must take advantage of this! Odds of around 1.80-1.88 are widely offered by the biggest, sometimes pretty sharp bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers – at least at the time of writing this analysis Thursday afternoon Beijing time. I do expect the odds on the hosts to come down by the time of the start of the match as smart money should pile up on the hosts.. I see them having a 60-61% chance of winning unless new crucial information on the absentees appears. 

Verdy have netted the ball 38 times so far and have conceded just 21 goals. This means that, in fact, their goal difference is the third-best in this league. Their offense has no clear weaknesses but sometimes they should pass the ball faster near the opponent's goal to create more goal-scoring chances against a well-organized defense. Furthermore, the midfielders could be a little more active offensively. Their defense, on the other hand, has been excellent this season and they have allowed just one more goal than the current leaders, Machida, who have 54 points to their account. Their talented coach has found a way to organize the defense very well and silly individual mistakes are rare. Mito will probably mainly have to rely on fast counter attacks, corner kicks or a possible penalty to score here but Verdy are good at defending against counter attacks - perhaps except for a situation where they take massive risk trying to score a last-minute equalizer. They were strong in their most recent game beating Vegalta Sendai 4-3 away from home. They recorded more shots on goal and goal attempts and the hosts were a bit lucky to score three goals. After R. Kato's 4-2 goal on the 46th Verdy became a bit too passive though and allowed the hosts to build up a little too much pressure.. Before this they were not at their best though and it was a 0-0 draw against Tokushima at home despite Verdy recording more goal attempts, shots off goal and dangerous attacks. I want to highlight that Tokushima defended very well in this game, but in honesty Verdy lacked some creativity offensively in this game. 

Mito and Verdy last locked horns in April and Verdy took a comfortable 2-0 away win after having 60% ball possession and recording more shots on goal, total passes, attacks and dangerous attacks (60-49). In a match before this, between the two teams, they also beat Mito last September 2-1 away from home. Moreover, they were much better than Mito last season finishing in 9th place – Mito ended up in the 13th place. This season Mito have been disappointing and are in the 16th place in the league table. They are in the 18th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. They have just 31 points in their pocket and their number of xPTS is just 29.16. Their defense has been very leaky and they have allowed 46 goals so far in J2 League! This is the second-highest number in this league.. I would not be surprised to see Verdy possibly scoring even more than two goals here! Mito were lame in their most recent game - it was a 0-0 draw as pretty big favorites against the rock-bottom team, Omiya Ardija, at home! They were the better team but only recorded three shots on target. Before this they played above their normal level beating Montedio Yamagata 3-1 at home as solid favorites. Before this they, however, lost two games allowing a total of six goals and looked like a very poorly-organized team!

东京Verdy vs水户蜀葵

北京时间周六下午，Verdy在味之本体育场欢迎水户参加日本J2联赛第28轮的比赛。按照国际标准，这个联赛的水平相对较低。博彩公司似乎在这个联赛的赔率上犯了很多错误——也许他们把更多的资源放在了夏天举行的大联赛上——比如巴西意甲和美国职业足球大联盟，现在连梅西都在迈阿密国际效力!与第一梯队J1联赛相比，差距很大。足球迷和我们这些以利润为导向的足球投注者可以期待这两支球队之间的比赛比J2联赛的标准要好一点。即便如此，这里的纯粹阶级还是有相当大的差别。我希望主队从开球开始就积极进取，在90分钟的大部分时间里控制球场上的局势!

Verdy本赛季的主场成绩并不是特别出色，但他们本赛季至今在味之素球场的许多比赛中都表现不佳。他们确实有优秀忠诚的球迷，但是这个联盟的标准…Verdy目前在积分榜上排名第三，我认为他们很有可能进入前三。Verdy在他们的账户上有48分，但他们的预期分数(xPTS)是50.34。他们比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好。然而，博彩公司仍然继续低估他们，我们必须利用这一点!赔率在1.80-1.88左右，这是最大的、有时相当精明的博彩公司普遍开出的赔率，他们接受客户的最大赌注——至少在北京时间周四下午写这篇分析时是这样。我确实预计东道主的赔率会在比赛开始时下降，因为聪明的钱会堆积在东道主身上。我认为他们有60-61%的获胜机会除非出现关于缺席的新关键信息。

到目前为止，威尔迪队已经打进38球，只丢了21球。这意味着，事实上，他们的净胜球在联赛中排名第三。他们的进攻没有明显的弱点，但有时他们应该在对手的球门附近更快地传球，以创造更多的进球机会。此外，中场球员可以在进攻端更积极一点。另一方面，他们本赛季的防守非常出色，只比目前的领头羊町田多丢了一个球，町田积54分。他们才华横溢的教练找到了一种很好的组织防守的方法，愚蠢的个人失误很少。水户可能主要依靠快速反击，角球或可能的点球来得分，但Verdy擅长防守反击-也许除了他们冒着巨大风险试图在最后一刻扳平比分的情况。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场4-3击败了仙台维加尔塔。他们记录了更多的射门和射门尝试，东道主打入三球有点幸运。加藤在第46分钟打进4比2的进球后，Verdy变得有些被动，给主队带来了太多的压力。在此之前，他们并没有处于最佳状态，主场0-0战平德岛，尽管威尔迪有更多的进球尝试、射偏和危险的进攻。我想强调的是，德岛在这场比赛中的防守非常好，但老实说，Verdy在这场比赛中缺乏一些进攻创造力。

水户和威尔迪上一次交锋是在4月份，威尔迪在60%的控球率、射门次数、传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数(60比49)都更多的情况下，以2比0的比分轻松取胜。在此之前的一场比赛中，两队也在去年9月客场2-1击败了水户。此外，他们比上个赛季的第9名水户要好得多——水户最终排名第13。本赛季水户的表现令人失望，目前在联赛中排名第16位。在我的实力排名中，他们排在第18位，这反映了球队的纯粹实力。他们的口袋里只有31分，他们的得分只有29.16分。他们的防守漏洞百出，在J2联赛中他们已经丢了46个球!这是联盟第二高的数据。我不会惊讶于看到Verdy可能在这里进两个以上的球!水户在最近的一场比赛中表现不佳，他们在主场以0比0战平了排名垫底的大宫队。他们是一支更好的球队，但只射正了三次。在此之前，他们在主场以3-1击败山形Montedio Yamagata