Gremio (RS) VS CR Flamengo

Gremio and Flamengo lock horns in this Copa do Brazil (Brazilian Cup) first leg clash at Arena do Grêmio Thursday morning Beijing time. Football fans and us serious profit-hungry bettors can expect a high-level clash between these two good Brazilian teams. Both teams play in the Serie A which is as whole probably the best league at the moment when the big European leagues are on a summer break. This league is pretty low-scoring on average and we must keep in mind that the first leg is often pretty cautious football, especially between good and pretty balanced teams. Indeed, in my opinion the goal expectancy here is definitely lower than the betting market estimates. Based on my sophisticated, in-depth - strongly data-based analysis the probability of under 2.5 total goal to be score is 61%. Especially the first half is expected to be defensive football during which both teams avoid scoring a goal and aim at spotting weaknesses in the opponent’s formation/ overall game. Even if one team ends up trailing by a margin of one goal of one goal they are unlikely to massively increase the risk level as there is still the second leg left to play.. Gremio currently occupy the 2nd place in the Serie A with a total of 29 points in their pocket. They have been better than I would have expected in my preseason analysis. Even so, I do not expect them to finish in the top-4 and I would not be at all surprised to see them dropping outside the top-6.. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is just 23.12.

Yes, Gremio are a traditional, pretty big club in Brazil but we must not let the standings fool us – as most of my fans probably know I never let happen! They were promoted back to the first tier for this season. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com their team has a total market value of around 61 million euros which is too high. I would set the number at around 53-54 million. The market values can, of course, be misleading, but still reflect the teams’ level on the pitch pretty well! The Flamengo squad has a massively bigger market value, about 173 million. This is slightly too high though.. Gremio have scored 25 goals in Serie A so far – Flamengo have netted the ball 28 times and have a clear edge in this area of the game! Defensively the difference between the teams is smaller but still worth mentioning. Flamengo have taken a total of 28 points but their number of xPTS is 33.12! Taking the relatively big home advantage in Brazil Flamengo are only slim favorites though.. The bookies, rather weirdly see the hosts as favorites here, offering them odds of around 2.50 to win.. Flamengo have been impressive lately and have not lost any of their latest eight games! They look confident and very organized on the pitch, allowing very few goals! I expect them to hurt the hosts here for every mistake and they should not lose this match..

格雷米奥VS弗拉门戈

北京时间周四上午，格雷米奥和弗拉门戈将在巴西杯首回合的比赛中在体育馆Grêmio展开对决。足球迷和我们这些极度渴望利润的投注者可以期待这两支优秀的巴西球队之间的高水平冲突。两支球队都在意甲比赛，当欧洲各大联赛都在夏季休息时，意甲可能是目前最好的联赛。这个联赛的平均得分很低，我们必须记住，第一回合通常是非常谨慎的足球，特别是在优秀和平衡的球队之间。事实上，在我看来，这里的进球预期肯定低于博彩市场的估计。根据我复杂的、深入的、强有力的数据分析，总进球低于2.5分的概率是61%。特别是上半场预计将是防守足球，在此期间，两支球队都避免进球，并致力于发现对手阵型/整体比赛的弱点。即使一支球队最终以一球或一球的差距落后，他们也不太可能大幅增加风险水平，因为还有第二回合比赛要打。格雷米奥目前以29分的积分排名意甲第二。他们比我在季前赛分析中预期的要好。即便如此，我也不指望他们能进入前四，如果他们跌出前六，我也不会感到惊讶。他们的期望值(xPTS)只有23.12。

是的，格雷米奥在巴西是一个传统的，相当大的俱乐部，但我们不能让排名欺骗我们-因为我的大多数球迷可能知道我从来没有让这种事情发生!他们在这个赛季被提升回一级联赛。根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，他们球队的总市值约为6100万欧元，这太高了。我估计这个数字在5300万到5400万之间。当然，市场价值可能会误导人，但仍然很好地反映了球队在球场上的水平!弗拉门戈队的市值要大得多，约为1.73亿欧元。这有点太高了…到目前为止，格雷米奥已经在意甲打进了25球，弗拉门戈已经打进了28球，并且在这个区域有明显的优势!防守方面，两队之间的差距较小，但仍然值得一提。弗拉门戈总共拿到了28分，但是他们的得分是33.12分!在主场优势相对较大的巴西，弗拉门戈只是微弱的热门。奇怪的是，博彩公司把东道主视为最受欢迎的球队，给出了2.50左右的赔率。弗拉门戈最近的表现令人印象深刻，他们最近的八场比赛没有输过一场!他们看起来很自信，在球场上很有组织，很少失球!我希望他们每犯一个错误都能伤害东道主，他们不应该输掉这场比赛。