Hafnarfjordur VS Fylkir

Hafnarfjordur host Fylkir for this Icelandic Besta Deild Karla round 16 clash at Kaplakriki early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This is the first tier of Icelandic football. Superettan is of very low level by European standards – even worse than the Finnish Veikkausliiga. The best Icelandic players usually leave the country at a young age to play elsewhere in Europe. Some players in this league are not even full-time professional footballers. There is a significant difference between the two clubs here. The hosts have a clear advantage in all areas of the game. Football fans and us serious football bettors can expect a match of mediocre level by this league’s standards. I expect the hosts to be very aggressive right from the kick off and control the events on the pitch for the most of the 90 minutes. The home advantage in this league is on average lower than in most big European leagues. However, Hfanafjordur have been very strong in front of their loud and enthusiastic fans – by Icelandic standards at least. Indeed, they have won five of the six home games in this league this season and have a fine score difference of 16:6 at home! Fylkir, too, have been okay at home but away from home they have been abysmal! Indeed, they have failed to win a single game in this league so far this season. Their goal difference away from home is 6:15. They are usually clearly too passive and defensive on the road which often results in the opponent being able to build up way too much pressure and create many dangerous scoring chances. Many of the Fylkir players also look shy and insecure on the pitch away from home. They have just 13 points to their account and are in the 11th place in this league with a total of 12 clubs. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is just 11.46. I do not see them having much room for improvement as the season progresses. They are a small club in terms of financial resources even by this league’s standards. Indeed, according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com their players have a total market value of just 980 000 euros. As for the hosts the same number is around 1.90 million which is still too low in my view. The fair number would be around 2.50 million.

The visitors defense has been very shaky this season which is not a surprise though. Together with Fram (10th place) Fylkir have allowed the biggest number of goals so far - 35 to be precise. I would not be at all surprised to see the host scoring even more than two goals here. Fylkir do have some offensive potential though - they have netted the ball 22 times in this league so far. However, their number of expected goals is just 17.12. Defensively the difference between the hosts and Fylkir is smaller than offensively as Hafnafjordur’s defenders sometimes make silly mistakes which results in conceding “cheap” goals. They have allowed 27 goals in this league but the number of expected goals is”only” 22.09.I see this match as more high-scoring than the betting market does. The odds on the host winning are around 1.80-1.83 and are very lucrative as with the expected lineups I see them having a 63-64% chance to send the visitors home empty-handed. In their most recent match they lost to strong KR Reykjavik 0-1 away from home as clear underdogs but the match was pretty balanced and a draw would probably have been a fair result.. At home they have won seven of eight most recent games in all competitions! They have 21 points to their account and their xPTS is 23.89. Fylkir have been very bad lately and have not won any of their most recent eight matches - losing five of them! In their most recent game they faced Kopavogur at home as clear favorites – priced around 2.05 to win but it was a 0-0 draw. Fylkir only recorded one shot on goal! They did not look confident in this game - even in front of their fans..

哈夫纳峡湾VS费基尔

北京时间周二凌晨，哈夫纳峡湾东道主费基尔将在卡普拉里克与冰岛贝斯塔-德-卡拉的16轮比赛中交锋。这是冰岛足球的第一梯队。按照欧洲的标准，Superettan的水平很低，甚至比芬兰的Veikkausliiga还差。冰岛最好的球员通常在年轻的时候就离开这个国家去欧洲其他地方踢球。这个联盟中的一些球员甚至不是全职的职业足球运动员。两家俱乐部在这方面有很大的不同。东道主在比赛的各个方面都有明显的优势。足球迷和我们这些认真的足球投注者可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的平庸水平的比赛。我希望主队从开球开始就非常有侵略性，并在90分钟的大部分时间里控制球场上的局势。这个联赛的主场优势平均低于大多数欧洲大联赛。然而，Hfanafjordur在他们喧闹而热情的球迷面前表现得非常强大——至少以冰岛的标准来看是这样。事实上，他们在本赛季联赛的6场主场比赛中赢了5场，并且在主场有16:6的好比分!费基尔队在主场表现也不错，但在客场表现糟糕透了!事实上，本赛季到目前为止，他们还没有在联赛中赢得一场比赛。他们在客场的净胜球差是6:15。显然，他们在比赛中过于被动和防守，这往往会导致对手施加太大的压力，创造出很多危险的得分机会。在远离家乡的球场上，许多费基尔球员看起来也很害羞和缺乏安全感。他们的积分只有13分，在联赛中排名第11位，总共有12家俱乐部。他们的期望值(xPTS)只有11.46。随着赛季的进行，我不认为他们有很大的提升空间。即使以联赛的标准来衡量，他们在财力方面也是一个小俱乐部。事实上，根据一家知名且受人尊敬的德国网站Transfermarkt.com，他们的球员的总市值只有98万欧元。至于主机，同样的数字是190万左右，在我看来还是太少了。合理的数字应该在250万左右。

客队本赛季的防守非常不稳定，这并不令人意外。和弗拉姆(第10名)一起，费基尔进了最多的球，确切地说是35个。如果看到东道主在这里进两个以上的球，我一点也不会感到惊讶。费基尔确实有一些进攻潜力，他们目前在联赛中已经打进22球。然而，他们的预期进球数只有17.12个。东道主和费基尔在防守上的差距比进攻上要小，因为哈夫纳约杜尔的后卫有时会犯一些愚蠢的错误，导致“廉价”进球。他们在联赛中丢了27个球，但预期进球“只有”22.09个。我认为这场比赛比赌博市场更能赢得高分。东道主获胜的赔率在1.80-1.83左右，这是非常有利可图的，因为根据预期的阵容，我认为他们有63-64%的机会让访客空手而归。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们客场0-1输给了强大的雷克雅未克KR，显然处于劣势，但这场比赛相当平衡，平局可能是公平的结果。在主场，他们赢得了最近8场比赛中的7场!他们的账户上有21分，他们的xPTS是23.89。费基尔最近的表现非常糟糕，他们最近的8场比赛一场也没赢，输了5场!在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场面对科帕沃古尔，这是一个明显的热门，他们的胜率在2.05左右，但结果是0-0的平局。费基尔只射门一次!他们在这场比赛中看起来并不自信——即使是在他们的球迷面前。