Although away wins in Ligue1 are generally hard to come by, this case today is outstanding for 1 reason. Metz will be playing its’ 3rd game in 7 days. They have had back to back fixtures against Monaco (in Ligue1 and in the French Cup), with the latter game being played on April 6th - just 2.5 days, basically, ago.

Furthermore, it went into overtime, so Metz had to do 120 minutes and still lose/get knocked out from the competition. Emotionally they are going to be worn out and clearly not fresh physically.

What’s more, Metz have failed to hit the net for 2 games straight and have lost 3 official games in a row (twice to Monaco and earlier to Rennes). Their European chances are fading and it’s hard to say, anyway, if they really had those ambitions in the first place.

Lille, in turn, pulled off a shock win against PSG last weekend to move +3 pts clear of the reigning champion. They are bound to ride a wave of enthusiasm now following that result and there is no way they’d be accepting anything but a win tonight. Otherwise, all the effort from last week will be basically neutralized.

Lille haven’t been too impressive results wise recently in the league, however, given the situation Metz find themselves in before the game tonight - I feel the emotional edge + physical freshness are going to seal the deal for Ligue 1 leaders.