Deep analysis Gold Cup pick 金杯赛 墨西哥VS巴拿马
2023-07-16

Milos

外籍分析师

解读理由:

In a decade-defining moment, Panama finds themselves in the Gold Cup final, with an opportunity to claim their first-ever CONCACAF title. They will face Mexico at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, on Sunday.


Mexico, known as El Tri, will appear in the final for the 11th time after a convincing 3-0 victory over Jamaica in the semifinals. Panama, on the other hand, secured their spot in the final by defeating the reigning champions, the USA, in a penalty shootout.


Heading into the tournament, Mexico wasn't considered a top contender, which is unusual considering their track record. They had reached the final in three of the previous four Gold Cups, winning the title twice and becoming champions a record eight times. Under the guidance of coach Jaime Lozano, who led the Mexican Under-23 team to a bronze medal at the 2019 Pan American Games, Mexico has found success, winning four out of five matches under his interim tenure. Notably, they have not conceded a goal in the knockout stage of the competition.


Mexico's impressive form under Lozano has reinstated belief in the team, which seemed to be lacking prior to the Gold Cup. Moreover, they have never lost consecutive Gold Cup finals, and their only defeat in recent years came in the 2021 final against the United States, where they were defeated 1-0 in extra time. Additionally, Mexico has a remarkable record in Gold Cup finals, having only lost to the United States. They have triumphed against Brazil on two occasions and defeated Jamaica 3-1 to claim the title in 2015.


Although Mexico has a strong historical advantage against Panama, winning 13 out of their previous 15 encounters, they have lost two of their last three Gold Cup matches against them, including a 2-1 defeat in both the group stage and semifinals in 2013.


Panama's journey has been remarkable, from narrowly missing a World Cup qualifying playoff berth to reaching the semifinals of the CONCACAF Nations League and now standing on the verge of their first-ever Gold Cup triumph. In the semifinals against the USA, Panama displayed an impressive defensive performance, holding off their opponents for 90 minutes and limiting them to just three shots on target throughout the entire match.


While Panama's victory was unexpected, their underlying numbers suggest that they deserved to advance. They had 56% possession against the USA, have scored in eight out of 12 matches against them in the Gold Cup, and completed 288 passes in the first half alone, the most by any opponent against the USA in a Gold Cup match since 2013. However, Panama has struggled to score against Mexico, having been shut out in four of their last five meetings.


Panama's resilience has been evident in the tournament, with four of their five goals conceded occurring beyond the 90th minute. Nevertheless, they showed their resolve in the shootout against the USA. A victory in the final would mark their first trophy since winning the now-defunct Copa Centroamericana in 2009, and they would become the first Central American nation to win the Gold Cup.


In terms of team selection, Lozano made one change to the lineup against Jamaica, with Erick Sanchez replacing Edson Alvarez. Notable performers for Mexico in the tournament include Henry Martin, Luis Chavez, Roberto Alvarado, and Guillermo Ochoa, who has recorded three clean sheets.


In the previous encounter between these two sides in the Nations League third-place playoff, Mexico secured a victory with Jesus Gallardo scoring the only goal of the match. However, Panama holds a memorable victory over Mexico in the Gold Cup, as they won 1-0 in July 2013, with Alberto Quintero winning a penalty that led to their goal, while Gabriel Torres scored a brace in a 2-1 triumph.


Considering the significant quality gap between the two teams, it is expected that Mexico will emerge victorious within regular time.



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在十年的决定性时刻,巴拿马发现自己进入了金杯决赛,有机会获得他们的第一个中北美洲足球锦标赛冠军。他们将于周日在加利福尼亚州英格尔伍德的SoFi体育场迎战墨西哥队。


被称为“El Tri”的墨西哥队在半决赛中以令人信服的3-0击败牙买加队,将第11次进入决赛。另一方面,巴拿马在点球大战中击败了卫冕冠军美国队,确保了他们在决赛中的席位。


在进入世界杯之前,墨西哥并没有被认为是最有力的竞争者,考虑到他们的历史记录,这是不寻常的。他们在之前的四届金杯中有三次进入决赛,两次获得冠军,并创纪录地八次成为冠军。在曾带领墨西哥u23代表队在2019年泛美运动会(Pan American Games)上获得铜牌的教练杰米·洛萨诺(Jaime Lozano)的指导下,墨西哥取得了成功,在他的临时任期内,墨西哥取得了五场比赛中的四场胜利。值得注意的是,他们在淘汰赛阶段没有失球。


在洛萨诺的带领下,墨西哥队令人印象深刻的状态恢复了人们对这支球队的信心,在金杯之前,这支球队似乎缺乏信心。此外,他们从未在金杯决赛中连续失利,近年来唯一一次失利是在2021年的决赛中对阵美国队,当时他们在加时赛中以0比1被击败。此外,墨西哥在金杯决赛中有着出色的战绩,只输给过美国。他们曾两次战胜巴西,并在2015年以3-1击败牙买加夺得冠军。


尽管墨西哥队对巴拿马队有着强大的历史优势,在之前的15场比赛中取得了13场胜利,但他们在最近的三场金杯比赛中输掉了两场,包括2013年小组赛和半决赛的2-1失利。


巴拿马队的征战历程是非凡的,从与世界杯预选赛的附加赛擦肩而过,到进入CONCACAF国家联赛的半决赛,现在又站在他们第一次获得金杯冠军的边缘。在半决赛对阵美国的比赛中,巴拿马展现了令人印象深刻的防守表现,在90分钟内阻挡住了对手,并在整场比赛中限制对手只有三次射门。


虽然巴拿马的胜利出乎意料,但他们的基本数据表明,他们应该晋级。在对阵美国队的比赛中,他们的控球率为56%,在与美国队的12场比赛中,他们有8场进球,仅在上半场就完成了288次传球,这是自2013年以来在金杯比赛中对阵美国队的最多对手。然而,巴拿马队在对阵墨西哥队的比赛中一直难以进球,在最近五次交锋中有四次被淘汰出局。


巴拿马的韧性在本届比赛中表现得很明显,他们的5个失球中有4个发生在第90分钟之后。尽管如此,他们在与美国队的点球大战中表现出了自己的决心。在决赛中获胜将标志着他们自2009年赢得现已解散的中美洲杯(Copa Centroamericana)以来的第一个奖杯,他们将成为第一个赢得金杯的中美洲国家。


在阵容选择方面,洛萨诺在对阵牙买加的比赛中对阵容进行了一次调整,用埃里克·桑切斯替换了埃德森·阿尔瓦雷斯。墨西哥队在本届比赛中表现出色的球员包括亨利·马丁、路易斯·查韦斯、罗伯托·阿尔瓦拉多和三次零封对手的吉列尔莫·奥乔亚。


在这两支球队之前在国家联赛第三名的季后赛中相遇时,墨西哥队凭借盖拉多打进的唯一进球取得了胜利。然而,巴拿马在2013年7月的金杯上以1比0战胜了墨西哥,他们赢得了一场令人难忘的胜利,阿尔贝托·金特罗赢得了一个点球,帮助他们进球,而加布里埃尔·托雷斯打进两球,帮助他们以2比1获胜。


考虑到两队之间的巨大实力差距,预计墨西哥队将在常规时间内取得胜利。

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