Copa Oro final where I see Mexico favorite.

Mexico has been improving during the tournament, and now are in their best moment. Started with some irregular performances, winning Honduras, Haiti, losing (undeservedly and with rotations) against Qatar, but then made very good performances against Costa Rica and Jamaica in 1 ⁄ 2 finals.

Must mention that they have not conceded a goal (and very few chances) in their last two games against Jamaica (0:3) and Costa Rica (2:0). Against Jamaica they played their best match since the World Cup. Lots of rhythm, pace, pressure… A very complete game, outplaying their rival at 100% and gaining a lot of confidence for the final.

Coach Lozano (although his continuity is not confirmed yet) has found a good lineup, with some changes which has been a great decision like Vazquez as CB.

Several players have been improving also during the tournament, such as Sanchez, Chavez, Vazquez, Romo… Edson Alvarez, former Ajax midfielder is their most valuable player (37MM euros) but Romo, who replaced him against Jamaica, showed that is a very good replacement as well.

Right now Mexico is in their best moment in a while. They know exactly what and how to do it, starting the games very strong and controlling the rivals. This match and this final is coming at the best moment possible for them.

On the other hand, Panama has been the surprise of the tournament. They deservedly beat Costa Rica and Martinica (both 1:2), but made an equal game against El Salvador (2:2) where guests had more expected goals (xG) with 1.29 against 1.09 for Panama. Then in ¼ finals were lucky to play against the weak national team of Qatar (4:0) and against the USA in the semi-finals made an amazing game, a perfect performance (with some luck too).

Against the USA Panama showed their plan to face big teams: be defensive, solid at the back, and be dangerous at counters. They showed that they know to struggle, compete, and don't lose their nerves.

But I need to mention the lack of experience that this team has, who use to miss concentration in key moments. In the first three games against Costa Rica, Martinica and Honduras, they conceded a late goal in the stoppage time (94’, 91’, 92’), whilst against the USA they conceded also in the last action of the first half in the ET (105’).

Panama is without their best and most valuable player - defender Michael Murillo (from RSC Anderlecht, 3MM Euros value) who was injured in the game against Martinica. He played just two games in this tournament (Martinica and Costa Rica), scoring one goal + giving one assist (remember he is defender), and being one of the best players in those games.

Panama’s value is just 15MM euros, with the majority of players from lower south american leagues and none of them playing in top european teams. Only Alberto Carrasquilla (from Houston Dynamo and whose value is 2.5MM) made great performances so far and showed quality. So they are lacking quality and experience. The value of Mexico is more than 10 times more: 167MM euros, with a lot of experience and several players in top European teams (Ajax, Espanyol, Feyenoord…)

Mexico has much more experience here, as they are a classic team in this competition along with the USA (11 titles and 3 times runners-up), whilst Panama has played just two finals in 2005 and 2015, losing both against the USA.

This will be a very intense game, where Panama won’t change their plan to be competitive and try to attack. Mexico has much more quality, experience and confidence to win here. Panama has been the surprise of the tournament and nobody expected them to play the final, whilst Mexico has always been the title contender along with the USA.

Mexico is the favorite to win and I believe they’ll do it, seeing their performances so far and especially their last game against Jamaica which was a big boost.

One last thing - Mexico won the last two games played against Panama recently, both 1:0. One in the WC qualifiers in 2022 (with another goal disallowed by VAR) and another one in the CONCACAF Nations League for the third position just one month ago.

奥罗杯决赛，我认为墨西哥最受欢迎。

墨西哥队在世界杯期间一直在进步，现在正处于他们最好的时刻。一开始表现不稳定，赢了洪都拉斯，海地，输给了卡塔尔(不合理的和轮换的)，但随后在1 / 2决赛中对阵哥斯达黎加和牙买加时表现非常出色。

必须提到的是，他们在最近两场对阵牙买加(0:3)和哥斯达黎加(2:0)的比赛中没有失球(机会也很少)。对牙买加的比赛是他们自世界杯以来最好的一场比赛。节奏，节奏，压力……一场非常完整的比赛，百分百击败对手，为决赛赢得了很多信心。

洛萨诺教练(虽然他的连续性还没有确定)找到了一个很好的阵容，做了一些改变，这是一个伟大的决定，比如巴斯克斯作为后卫。

几名球员在比赛中也有所进步，比如桑切斯、查韦斯、巴斯克斯、罗莫……前阿贾克斯中场埃德森·阿尔瓦雷斯(Edson Alvarez)是他们最有价值的球员(3700万欧元)，但在对阵牙买加的比赛中取代他的罗莫也证明了他是一个很好的替补。

现在墨西哥正处于一段时间以来最好的时刻。他们知道该做什么，该怎么做，一开始就很强势，控制对手。这场比赛和这场决赛对他们来说是最好的时机。

另一方面，巴拿马一直是本届杯赛的惊喜。他们当之无愧地击败了哥斯达黎加和马提尼察(均为1:2)，但在对阵萨尔瓦多(2:2)的比赛中，他们以1.29比1.09的比分赢得了更多的进球(xG)。然后，在四分之一决赛中，我们幸运地对阵了实力较弱的卡塔尔国家队(4:0)，在半决赛中对阵了美国队，这是一场令人惊叹的比赛，完美的表现(也有一些运气)。

在对阵美国的比赛中，巴拿马展示了他们面对强队的计划:防守，防守稳固，反击时要有威胁。他们表现出他们知道要奋斗、要竞争，而且不会失去勇气。

但是我需要提到的是这支球队缺乏经验，他们常常在关键时刻无法集中注意力。在前三场对阵哥斯达黎加、马蒂尼察和洪都拉斯的比赛中，他们在补时阶段(94 '、91 '、92 ')丢了一个球，而在对阵美国的比赛中，他们也在上半场最后一个动作丢了球(105 ')。

巴拿马失去了他们最好也是最有价值的球员——后卫迈克尔·穆里略(来自安德莱赫特，价值300万欧元)，他在对阵马蒂尼察的比赛中受伤。他在本届杯赛中只打了两场比赛(马提尼卡和哥斯达黎加)，进了一个球，送了一个助攻(记住他是后卫)，并且是这些比赛中最好的球员之一。

巴拿马的身价仅为1500万欧元，大多数球员来自南美较低的联赛，没有人在欧洲顶级球队效力。只有卡拉斯奎拉(来自休斯顿迪纳摩，价值2.5毫米)目前表现出色，表现出了实力。所以他们缺乏素质和经验。墨西哥队的身价是墨西哥队的10倍多:1.67亿欧元，经验丰富，有几名球员效力于欧洲顶级球队(阿贾克斯、西班牙人、费耶诺德……)

墨西哥在这里有更多的经验，因为他们和美国一起是这项赛事的经典球队(11次冠军和3次亚军)，而巴拿马在2005年和2015年只参加了两次决赛，都输给了美国。

这将是一场非常激烈的比赛，巴拿马不会改变他们的竞争计划，并试图进攻。墨西哥有更强的实力、经验和信心在这里取胜。巴拿马一直是本届世界杯的惊喜，没有人预料到他们会进入决赛，而墨西哥和美国一直是冠军的竞争者。

墨西哥队是夺冠热门，我相信他们会赢，看看他们目前的表现，尤其是他们上一场对阵牙买加的比赛，那是一次巨大的鼓舞。

最后一件事-墨西哥最近赢得了与巴拿马的最后两场比赛，都是1:0。一次是在2022年世界杯预选赛上(另一个进球被VAR判无效)，另一次是在一个月前的中北美洲和加勒比地区国家联赛中获得第三名。