In my opinion Sao Paulo have bigger chances to avoid loss than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

In first game Sao Paulo won 1:0 at home and that was fully deserved win as they played better than Palmeiras. Last year Sao Paulo knocked them in round of 16 in this competition. Good mental advantage on their side.

Sao Paulo coming for this game full of confidence - they went unbeaten in last 4 matches in all competitions and even not conceded a single goal during that run. Looks like it's very important game for the team, coach Dorival Junior not used the strongest possible line up in last league match. Team is fresh and ready to go.

For sure freshness is not on Palmeiras side - they used best possible squad in last league match 4 days ago, but they failed to win at home against Flamengo. I believe league have bigger priority for them as they are title defenders. 3 days after this game big match on away against Internacional so I expect some rotation and that should have impact on their performance. In addition to that, Palmeiras is not in good form at the moment - they failed to win in 5 of last 6 matches in all competitions (3 times failed to score during that run).

Sao Paulo didn't lost in 8 of last 10 matches at this stadium. On those circumstances I see excellent value on away side.

在我看来，圣保罗有更大的机会避免损失比博彩公司想给我们建议的赔率。

第一场比赛圣保罗主场1:0获胜，这是他们应得的胜利，因为他们比帕尔梅拉斯踢得更好。去年，圣保罗在16强淘汰了他们。他们有很好的心理优势。

圣保罗对这场比赛充满信心——他们在最近4场比赛中保持不败，甚至没有失球。看起来这场比赛对球队来说非常重要，在上一场联赛中，主教练小多利瓦尔没有使用最强的阵容。队伍已经整装待发。

可以肯定的是，帕尔梅拉斯队没有新鲜感——他们在4天前的联赛中使用了最好的阵容，但他们没能在主场战胜弗拉门戈。我相信联赛对他们来说更重要，因为他们是冠军捍卫者。在这场比赛之后的3天，我们将在客场对阵国际，所以我预计会有一些轮换，这应该会对他们的表现产生影响。除此之外，帕尔梅拉斯目前的状态也不太好——他们在所有赛事的最近6场比赛中有5场没有获胜(其中3场没有进球)。

圣保罗队在这个体育场进行的最近10场比赛中有8场没有输。在这种情况下，我认为客场有很大的价值。