A good pick for the Gold Cup!
2023-07-09

Borja

外籍分析师

美金杯

07/10 05:00

已完赛

解读理由:

Both teams are very weak and won’t be easy, but Jamaica has a much better team here.

Guatemala is playing the Copa Oro ¼ finals for the first time since 2011, after the suspension from international tournaments by FIFA between 2017 - 2019, and the defeat in group stage in 2021.

They have a very weak squad, whose value is below 8MM euros, with the majority of the players playing in the local league of Guatemala. Furthermore, a key player is suspended for this match - midfielder Rodrigo Saravia, starter on all games. Their most valuable player is Aaron Herrera from Montreal (Canada league) whose value is just 2MM euros.

In their previous fixtures they achieved a deserved victory against Cuba (very weak team) in the opening game. Then, they were outplayed by Canada but achieved their target: a point to play for everything in the last round against Guadalupe.

Against Guadalupe, they managed to come back the game winning 2:3 undeservedly, as Guadalupe missed a penalty at 88’ and had almost the double of xG. And Guadalupe is a similar team to them in quality.

For Guatemala, to be here in ¼ finals is already a big success.

On the other hand, Jamaica has clearly much more quality here. They have a squad value of 94,5MM Euros, which is more than 10 times higher than Guatemala. They have some top players playing in the major leagues. Their attack is especially strong: striker Michail Antonio, who is the current UEFA Conference League winner with West Ham and scored 14 goals this season, Demarai Gray who is playing in the Everton (and scored 6 goals this season), and Leon Bailey (whose value is 28MM euros) from Aston Villa.

Although Demarai Gray and Michail Antonio were born in England (and have been playing there their whole career), they managed to be nationalized with Jamaica and play with this national team.

They also have more players in the Premier League, such as defender Ethan Pinnock (Brentford), midfielder Bobby De Cordoba-Rei (Fulham), defender Amari’i Biel (Luton Town); others from U23 English teams; other European leagues and MLS (Damion Lowe in Philadelphia Union, Javain Brown in Vancouver Whitecaps and Cory Burke in New York Red Bulls).

Players like defender Kemar Lawrence have a lot of experience with 20 games in Copa Oro, followed by Je-Vaughn with 17. But one of their most important players is the goalkeeper Andre Blake (Philadelphia Union), winner in 2017 of the Copa Oro “Golden Glove”.

So they have a very talented squad, with much more quality and experience. They had a very easy tournament so far, playing against two of the worst teams (Saint Kitts and Nevis, Trinidad and Tobago) winning 5:0 and 4:1, but against the USA they drew 1:1 missing a penalty and conceding a late goal at 89’, playing a great game.

In the Copa Oro they already managed to play the final in 2015 and 2017, and they are clearly a national team who is growing in recent years. They also have a great coach - the Iceland Heimir Hallgrímsson, who managed to qualify Iceland for the first time in their history to the World Cup (Russia 2018).

So Jamaica has much more quality and experience here. They have ambitions to reach the final stages, while Guatemala has a very weak squad and for them to be here is already a big success. Quality difference is huge.

Guatemala’s plan will be the same as against Canada - just defend. But Jamaica has upfront their strongest point, so surely will find a way to score some goal. Upfront Guatemala has nothing, so I don't see them able to achieve a positive result here.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

两支球队都很弱,很难取胜,但牙买加在这里的表现要好得多。

危地马拉自2011年以来首次参加美洲杯决赛,此前国际足联在2017年至2019年期间暂停参加国际锦标赛,并在2021年小组赛中失利。

他们的阵容非常弱,价值低于800万欧元,大多数球员在危地马拉当地联赛踢球。此外,本场比赛的一名关键球员——中场罗德里戈·萨拉维亚将停赛,他将在所有比赛中首发出场。他们最有价值的球员是来自蒙特利尔(加拿大联赛)的阿隆·埃雷拉,他的价值只有2万欧元。

在他们之前的比赛中,他们在揭幕战中击败了古巴(一支非常弱的球队),取得了当之无愧的胜利。然后,他们被加拿大击败,但实现了他们的目标:在最后一轮对阵瓜达卢佩的比赛中,他们可以获得一分。

在对阵瓜达卢佩的比赛中,由于瓜达卢佩在第88分钟错失点球,并且几乎是xG的双杀,他们设法以2:3逆转了比赛。瓜达卢佩在质量上与他们相似。

对于危地马拉来说,进入四分之一决赛已经是一个巨大的成功。

另一方面,牙买加的质量显然要高得多。他们的总身价为94.5亿欧元,比危地马拉高出10倍以上。他们有一些顶级球员在大联盟打球。他们的攻击力尤其强大,有代表西汉姆联队获得欧足联联赛冠军并打入14球的前锋安东尼奥、效力于埃弗顿的德马莱·格雷(本赛季打入6球)、来自阿斯顿维拉的利昂·贝利(身价2800万欧元)。

虽然德玛莱·格雷和迈克尔·安东尼奥出生在英国(他们的整个职业生涯都在那里踢球),但他们成功地与牙买加一起被国有化,并在这支国家队效力。

他们在英超也有更多的球员,比如后卫伊森·平诺克(布伦特福德),中场博比·德·科尔多瓦-雷(富勒姆),后卫阿马里·伊·贝尔(卢顿镇);其他来自U23英格兰球队;其他欧洲联赛和美国职业足球大联盟(费城联盟的达米恩·洛维、温哥华白头队的贾万·布朗和纽约红牛队的科里·伯克)。

像后卫凯马尔·劳伦斯这样的球员在奥罗杯有20场比赛的经验,其次是杰·沃恩,有17场比赛的经验。但他们最重要的球员之一是守门员安德烈·布莱克(费城联盟),他是2017年奥罗杯“金手套”奖得主。

所以他们有一支非常有天赋的球队,有更多的质量和经验。到目前为止,他们的比赛非常轻松,对阵两支最差的球队(圣基茨和尼维斯,特立尼达和多巴哥),他们以5:0和4:1获胜,但对阵美国,他们1:1战平,在89 '时丢了一个点球,踢了一场精彩的比赛。

在2015年和2017年的奥罗杯上,他们已经成功打进了决赛,很明显,他们是近年来正在成长的国家队。他们还有一位伟大的教练——冰岛海米尔Hallgrímsson,他带领冰岛队历史上首次晋级世界杯(2018年俄罗斯世界杯)。

所以牙买加有更多的素质和经验。他们有野心进入决赛阶段,而危地马拉的阵容非常弱,对他们来说,来到这里已经是一个巨大的成功。质量差异很大。

瓜地马拉的计划和对付加拿大一样——防守。但是牙买加已经有了他们最强大的优势,所以肯定会找到办法进一些球。危地马拉什么都没有,所以我不认为他们能在这里取得积极的结果。

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