In my opinion New England Revolution have bigger chances to avoid loss than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

New England have big mental advantage before this game because they didn’t lost against Cincinnati in last 7 matches in a row. Last match between both teams at this stadium finished with their win 3:2.

New England coming for this game full of confidence as they won last 3 matches in a row. They didn’t lost in 6 consecutive matches. Offensive formation works really well as they scored more than one goal in 5 of last 6 matches. On the road so far they didn’t lost in 6 of 9 away matches.

Cincinnati is favorite because they won all 10 home league matches so far, but they had a lot of luck. In those matches they conceded only 5 goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 10.5. In last round they recorded very painful 0:3 loss on away against DC United so for sure their confidence is not on the highest possible level. In addition to that today their central midfielder Moreno is unavailable – it’s huge blow because he is one of the best player in the team.

I see value on away side. They should be able to score and stop Cincinnati great streak at home.

在我看来，新英格兰革命队有更大的机会避免损失，而不是赌徒给我们的赔率。

新英格兰队在这场比赛之前有很大的心理优势，因为他们在过去的7场比赛中没有输给辛辛那提队。两队在这个体育场的最后一场比赛以3:2获胜告终。

新英格兰队对这场比赛充满信心，因为他们赢得了最近的3场比赛。他们连续6场比赛没有输。进攻阵型非常有效，他们在最近6场比赛中有5场进球超过1球。到目前为止，他们在9场客场比赛中有6场没有输。

辛辛那提是最受欢迎的，因为他们赢了所有10个主场联赛到目前为止，但他们有很多运气。在这些比赛中，他们只丢了5个球，但根据预期丢球模型，他们应该丢10.5个球。上一轮他们客场0比3惨败于华盛顿联队，所以他们的信心肯定没有达到最高水平。除此之外，今天他们的中场莫雷诺不能上场——这是一个巨大的打击，因为他是球队中最好的球员之一。

我看到了对方的价值。他们应该能够得分并在主场阻止辛辛那提的连胜。