In my opinion NYCFC have bigger chances to avoid loss than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

Guests coming for this game with big mental advantage as they didn’t lost against Montreal in 15 of last 17 matches. Last match between both teams at this stadium finished with NYCFC 3:1 away win.

NYCFC improved in last matches, they didn’t lost in last 5 matches in a row. In last two rounds they played against stronger teams than Montreal (Atalanta and Columbus) – both matches finished with draw, but twice NYCFC had higher expected goals scored number than their opponents.

I saw Montreal in their last match on away against Charlotte and I wasn’t impressed. Match finished with 0:0 draw, but that wasn’t deserved result at all: Charlotte had couple big chances and finished with 1.41 expected goals scored. Montreal have impressice run at home – they won last 6 league matches in a row at home and not conceded a single goal, but they had a lot of luck. According to the expected goals scored model they should conceded 1.03 against Nashville, 1.20 against Minnesota, 0.94 against Miami, 0.32 against Toronto, 0.89 against Orlando and 1.59 against Red Bull. So they had 6.37 expected goals conceded in those 6 matches, but they not conceded a single one..

I believe NYCFC is good enough to score today and that should be enough to avoid loss and continue great streak against Montreal.

在我看来，NYCFC有更大的机会避免损失比博彩公司想要建议我们在他们的赔率。

这场比赛的客人有很大的心理优势，因为他们在过去的17场比赛中有15场没有输给蒙特利尔。两队在这个球场的上一场比赛以NYCFC 3:1客场获胜告终。

NYCFC在最近几场比赛中有所进步，他们在最近5场比赛中没有输球。在最近的两轮比赛中，他们面对的是比蒙特利尔更强的球队(亚特兰大和哥伦布)——两场比赛都以平局结束，但两次NYCFC的预期进球数都高于对手。

我看了蒙特利尔上一场客场对阵夏洛特的比赛，我没有被打动。比赛以0:0结束，但这根本不应该是这样的结果:夏洛特队有两个很好的机会，最终以1.41个预期进球结束。蒙特利尔在主场的表现令人印象深刻——他们在过去的6场联赛中在主场取得了连胜，而且没有失球，但他们运气很好。根据预期进球模型，他们对纳什维尔应该丢1.03球，对明尼苏达应该丢1.20球，对迈阿密应该丢0.94球，对多伦多应该丢0.32球，对奥兰多应该丢0.89球，对红牛应该丢1.59球。所以他们在这6场比赛中有6.37个预期失球，但他们没有丢一个球。

我相信NYCFC今天有足够的能力得分，这应该足以避免输球，并继续对蒙特利尔的连胜。