Croatia vs Spain

Croatia and Spain lock horns in the UEFA Nations League (League A) finals at De Kuip in Rotterdam, in the Netherlands. This is, of course, not the most prestigious tournament but I am positive both teams are motivated here, despite the long and tiring season the players, especially the ones playing for the very biggest clubs and also played in the World Cup. We can expect a high-level clash here between these two top European teams! The finals in many tournaments are usually pretty low-scoring. Here both teams do have scoring power but I still see this match as lower-scoring than the betting market estimates. The probability of under 2.5 total goals being scored is 66%. Furthermore, the probability of a draw is pretty high – 32% to be precise. There is no doubt about  the fact that Spain are the better team here. On paper they look clearly better - the same is true when taking a look at each team's players' total market value on a well-respected and well-known German website, Transfermarkt.com. Croatia, too, have some world-class talent in the team, of course. Croatia's golden generation – led by the timeless and still very dangerous Luka Modric, who indeed defied his age and then some in the semi-finals – will now be presented with a shot at an international trophy in a final for the second time. I am quite surprised to see that the bookies keep on underestimating Croatia who have proved over and over again starting from 2017 that they are a better team than the list of players would indicate! The national team is a huge thing for the people of Croatia and the players. Indeed, they reportedly have an excellent team spirit – which has not always been the case with Spain.. 

Let's not forget that Croatia made it to the 2018 World Cup final and took third place in December in Qatar playing a strong tournament! Yes, they were heavily beaten by Argentina in the semi-finals losing 0-3. Argentina fully deserved to win but the 3-0 final score still does flatter them. Before this they had to defend a lot but one cannot say that the win over the favorites to win the tournament, Brazil, was undeserved as such. They shot down Brazil's offense in an impressive way. In the bronze match they were better than I would have expected and deserved to win over Morocco recording many more shots on goal as well as goal attempts. The surprise team of the tournament, Morocco upset Spain in the semi-finals as big underdogs according to the bookies. Spain were, once again, pretty toothless against a well-organized defense. This is what they will face here as well! After this they have beaten Norway at home but lost to a pretty limited team in the EURO 2024 qualification 0-2 away from home after a sad performance as clear favorites. Three days ago they beat Italy 2-1 after a somewhat balanced battle that could have gone either way. Spain recorded 2.09 in expected goals (xG) whereas Italy generated 2.02. Croatia, on the other hand, were excellent in the semifinals four days ago recording 3.56 in expected goals, the hosts, Netherlands, generated just 1.45. The match went to extra time and Croats won 4-2 as clear underdogs on the betting market.. They are undefeated after the World Cup beating a dangerous team Turkey 2-0 away from home and taking a draw against Wales at home (1-1). They would have deserved a win after generating much more in xG. The biggest bookies offer Spain odds of around 2.00 to win in regulation time which is too low! Croatia +0.5 goals is the smart bet with a 59% chance of winning!

克罗地亚vs西班牙

克罗地亚和西班牙在荷兰鹿特丹德库伊普举行的欧足联国家联赛(联赛A)决赛中交手。当然，这不是最负盛名的比赛，但我确信两支球队在这里都很有动力，尽管这个赛季漫长而疲惫，尤其是那些效力于顶级俱乐部并参加过世界杯的球员。我们可以期待这两支欧洲顶级球队之间的高水平碰撞!许多锦标赛的决赛通常都是低分比赛。这两支球队都有得分能力，但我仍然认为这场比赛的得分低于博彩市场的估计。总进球数少于2.5个的概率是66%。此外，平局的概率相当高，准确地说是32%。毫无疑问，西班牙队在这里更胜一筹。从纸面上看，他们看起来明显更好——在德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com上看每支球队球员的总市值也是如此。当然，克罗地亚也有一些世界级的天才球员。克罗地亚的黄金一代——由永恒的、仍然非常危险的卢卡·莫德里奇(Luka Modric)领导，他确实在半决赛中挑战了自己的年龄和一些人——现在将第二次在决赛中获得国际奖杯。我很惊讶地看到博彩公司一直低估克罗地亚，他们从2017年开始一次又一次地证明他们是一支比球员名单所显示的更好的球队!国家队对克罗地亚人民和球员来说都是一件大事。事实上，据说他们有出色的团队精神——这在西班牙并不总是如此。

让我们不要忘记克罗地亚队进入了2018年世界杯决赛，并在12月的卡塔尔世界杯上获得了第三名。是的，他们在半决赛中0-3惨败于阿根廷队。阿根廷完全配得上胜利，但3比0的最终比分仍然让他们感到高兴。在此之前，他们不得不防守很多次，但我们不能说战胜夺冠热门巴西队是不值得的。他们以令人印象深刻的方式挫败了巴西队的进攻。在铜牌比赛中，他们的表现比我预期的要好，他们理应以更多的射门和射门次数战胜摩洛哥。据博彩公司称，摩洛哥是本届世界杯的意外之队，在半决赛中击败了西班牙队。面对组织严密的防守，西班牙再一次显得毫无威慑力。这也是他们在这里要面对的!在此之后，他们在主场击败了挪威，但在2024年欧洲杯预选赛中客场0比2输给了一支实力相当有限的球队。三天前，他们以2比1击败了意大利队，这是一场势均力敌的战斗。西班牙队的预期进球数为2.09个，而意大利队为2.02个。另一方面，克罗地亚在四天前的半决赛中表现出色，预计进球数为3.56，而东道主荷兰队的预期进球数仅为1.45。比赛进入加时赛，克罗地亚队以4比2获胜，在博彩市场上显然处于劣势。在世界杯上，他们客场2-0击败危险球队土耳其，主场1-1战平威尔士，至今保持不败。他们在xG上产生了更多的能量，他们本应该赢得一场胜利。最大的博彩公司提供西班牙的赔率约为2.00在规定时间内获胜，这太低了!克罗地亚+0.5球是明智的赌注，有59%的获胜机会!