Thespa Kusatsu VS Oita Trinita

Kusatsu welcome Oita Trinita for this Japanese J2 League round 20 battle at Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma in Maebashi. This is the second-highest level of Japanese football. Japan is a strong football nation but the level of this league is not very high by global standards. The level of this league is much lower than that of J1 League. Football fans and us serious football bettors can expect a match of better than average level here by J2 League standards between  these pretty good teams. Kusatsu have massively improved from last season when they finished only in the 20th place in this league. They managed to take only 42 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) was only higher – 46.12 to be precise. I expected them to improve for this season but they have still surprised me positively! I have, as a result, significantly raised their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class from the in-depth preseason analysis. Especially their offense has been much more creative and the counter attacks more dangerous than I would have guessed before the season started. They have netted the ball 22 times in the J2 League. Their number of expected goals (xG) is just 18.25 Their defense, too, has been pretty good but the structure could be better and the defenders sometimes ”panic” and just kick the ball as far as they can from their own own instead of passing the ball patiently. They have allowed 22 goals but I have to highlight that in reality their defense has been more shaky. Their number of expected points allowed (xGA) is 26.89.. They can be very happy with their season as they are in 9th place with 29 points.. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is only 26.03. They occupy the 11th place in my power rating. Indeed, it is a little surprising that the odds on Kusatsu are too high despite the statistics and data I have just mentioned above.. In fact the main rationale behind this pick is to oppose Oita Trinita..

The visitors are currently in second place but are only in the 6th place in my power rating! They have had a lot of luck on their side so far this season. They have allowed 24 goals – more than Tochigi in 17th place! Their defensive structure is far from solid and the defenders, midfielders and the goalkeeper make quite a lot of stupid individual mistakes - especially away from home. Furthermore, they have scored only 25 goals, the same number as Kanazawa in 17th place. It is very surprising that they have been able to grab 34 points! Their number of xPTS us only 29.78. Away from home they have been relatively weak – they are only the 16th best team on the road in this league so far this season with a score difference of 8:14 in nine games. Kusatsu, on the other hand, have been extremely strong at home recently and have not lost any of their latest five games in front of loud hime fans. Moreover, they have lost just one of their most recent 11 home games.!This loss happened almost three months ago against Vegalta Sendai, a dangerous team. 1-2 was the final score.

There is no doubt about the fact that the visitors are the stronger team here by pure class. Even with the substantial home advantage they deserve to be the favorites here - but only marginal – based on my sophisticated in-depth analysis. The odds offered on the Oita Trinita to win by the biggest bookies with the largest betting limits are around 2.20 at the time of writing this analysis Saturday afternoon Beijing time and this is definitely too low! Unless some unexpected news about the starting lineups appears I expect the odds on the recommended bet, +0.5 goals handicap on Kusatsu, to drop as smart money should pile up on them.. Oita Trinita have won just one of their latest six games and have been in clear decline compared to their level early season.. On Wednesday they lost to a very small team, Verspah Oita, 0-1 in an Emperor's Cup game at home. Oita Trinita were big favorites in this game – priced around 1.50 to win in regulation time. Kusatsu played surprisingly well on Wednesday, also in the Emperor's Cup, despite losing 1-2 away from home against a strong team Tokyo Verdy through an own goal in the 83rd minute. With some luck they could even have won despite being very clear underdogs on the betting market!  Before this they faced Kanazawa, also away from home, as pretty clear underdogs. They were not at their best but defended well and it was a 1-1 draw after a pretty low-level battle.

草津社VS大分三一

草津队欢迎大太三田参加日本J2联赛第20轮的比赛，比赛将在前桥的群马正田正宇体育场举行。这是日本足球的第二高水平。日本是一个强大的足球国家，但以全球标准来看，这个联赛的水平不是很高。这个联赛的水平比J1联赛低得多。足球迷和我们这些认真的足球投注者可以期待一场高于J2联赛平均水平的比赛。与上赛季相比，草津已经有了很大的进步，上赛季他们只排在联赛的第20位。他们只拿到了42分，但他们的期望分数(xPTS)只比这高一点，准确地说是46.12分。我期望他们在本赛季有所提高，但他们仍然给我带来了积极的惊喜!因此，我从季前赛的深入分析中大大提高了他们的力量评级，这反映了球队的纯粹等级。特别是他们的进攻更有创造力，反击比我在赛季开始前想象的更危险。他们在J2联赛中取得了22次进球。他们的预期进球数(xG)也只有18.25，他们的防守也很好，但结构还可以更好，后卫有时会“恐慌”，他们只是把自己的球踢得尽可能远，而不是耐心地传球。他们丢了22个球，但我必须强调的是，实际上他们的防守更加不稳定。他们的期望得分(xGA)是26.89。他们可以对自己的赛季非常满意，因为他们以29分排名第9。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)只有26.03。它们在我的能量评级中排名第11位。的确，有点令人惊讶的是，尽管我刚刚提到的统计数据和数据，草津的赔率还是太高了。事实上，这个选择背后的主要理由是反对大分三一…

访客目前排在第二位，但在我的能量评级中只排在第六位!本赛季到目前为止，他们运气很好。他们丢了24个球，比排在第17位的枥木还多!他们的防守结构很不稳固，后卫、中场和门将都犯了很多愚蠢的个人错误，尤其是在客场。此外，他们只进了25个球，与排名第17位的金泽一样。他们能拿到34分真是令人惊讶!他们的xPTS数量只有29.78。在客场，他们的表现相对较弱——本赛季到目前为止，他们在联盟的客场比赛中仅排在第16位，9场比赛的比分差距为8:14。另一方面，草津队最近在主场的表现非常强劲，最近五场比赛在主场球迷面前没有输过一场。此外，他们最近11场主场比赛只输了一场。这场失利发生在近三个月前，对手是一支危险的球队——仙台维加尔塔。1比2是最后的比分。

毫无疑问，客队是本场比赛中实力较强的球队。即使在主场有巨大的优势，他们也应该是最受欢迎的球队——但根据我复杂的深入分析，这只是边际。在北京时间周六下午写这篇分析时，最大的博彩公司以最大的投注限额提供的大分三一的赔率约为2.20，这绝对太低了!除非出现一些关于首发阵容的意外消息，否则我预计推荐的赔率会下降，因为聪明的钱应该会堆积在他们身上。大分三一在最近的6场比赛中只赢了一场，与赛季初的水平相比，他们的表现明显下滑。周三，他们在主场的皇杯比赛中以0比1输给了一支非常小的球队维斯帕·大田。大分三一在这场比赛中是大热门，在规定时间内的价格约为1.50美元。草津在周三的比赛中表现出色，同样是在天皇杯比赛中，尽管在第83分钟被强队东京维尔迪(Tokyo Verdy)乌龙球以1-2不敌，但还是出人意料。如果运气好的话，他们甚至可以赢得比赛，尽管在博彩市场上他们显然处于劣势!在此之前，他们面对金泽，同样远离家乡，是相当明显的劣势。他们没有达到最佳状态，但防守很好，在一场相当低水平的战斗之后，他们以1比1战平。