Valladolid vs Getafe

Valladolid and Getafe lock horns in this Spanish LaLiga round 38 battle at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero very early Monday morning Beijing time. This is the final round of play. LaLiga, is in my opinion, the second-best league in the world after the English Premier League. Football fans and us serious football bettors cannot, unfortunately, expect a very high-level or game by LaLiga standards here. In fact, I expect an anxious, defensive match with a lot of emotions. Several bookings or even a red card would not be a surprise at all. Most importantly, my fans and I have yet another very promising betting opportunity here! We have won seven picks in a row in this league at the time of posting this analysis. The long term results are also very convincing! Moreover, we are on a winning streak of six picks at the time of writing preview! The situation ahead of this game is very clear. Valladolid need at least a point here to save themselves from the cruel fate of being relegated. However, even a win might not be enough for them. Their fate depends on Almeria, who are currently in 16th place with 40 points. Celta Vigo, too, have 40 points to their account. If they hear bad news from these two games involving Almeria and Celta their motivation could drop a lot! If they are forced to go for three points to save their place in LaLiga I think Getafe will have a very good chance to hurt them through dangerous counter attacks. Indeed, Valladolid's situation is grim.. The players have not looked confident at all on the pitch in most games recently and sometimes shout at each other aggressively creating a negative atmosphere. I also do not trust their coach.. Getafe, on the other hand, have a tactically very smart coach and I also trust him as a leader!

When betting on the last round of LaLiga it is important to realize that if points are tied at the end of the competition, head-to-head matches will be the tie-breaker. The teams who finish 18-20th are relegated to LaLiga2 for next season. Valladolid are having an abysmal season and have grabbed just 36 points. They are in the 18th place in the league table. By pure class they are not much better than Elche, the rock-bottom team with just 24 points in their pocket! Valladolid's number of expected points (xPTS) is just 31.21. It is hard to say anything positive about their game. Their offense lacks basically everything needed to score enough goals at this level. The structure is poor and the midfielders do not take enough part in attacking. Their strikers are also not very creative and lack speed and passing accuracy near the opponents' goal. They have scored just 33 goals in LaLiga. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is a little bigger. Their defense, too, has been very bad and they have conceded 63 goals. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is significantly higher – 73.11! Getafe have allowed just 45 goals which is much less than for example Girona have, in 9th place have conceded! Getafe, too, have struggled offensively and relied mainly on their defense to take points and have netted the ball just 34 times. Their number of xG, however, is much bigger – 40.02 to be precise. Getafe are in 14th place with 41 points in their pocket but have been lucky in terms of xPTS. They would have deserved about 46 points. They are almost certainly safe from relegation but need a point to secure their place in LaLiga in case all three - Valencia, Almeria and Celta were to win their games.. I expect them to defend very hard, be physical and even waste time and allow the desperate hosts to control the ball for most of the game. The biggest bookies with the largest stake limits see Valladolid as clear favorites here offering them odds of around 2.20 to take all three points.. This is way too low. However, I expect their odds to go up though as smart money is expected to pile up on Getafe.. I must strongly disagree with the betting market here! The visitors are clearly the better team in all areas of the game but taking the substantial home advantage I see - based on my in-depth, strongly data-based analysis - this match as a coin toss without an actual favorite. Indeed, with the current odds this is one of the best bets in June so far! With the recommended bet of +0.5 goals handicap option on the visitors we have a big chance of winning - once again!

Valladolid were lame in their most recent game despite taking a point away from home against Almeria. It was a goalless draw. Almeria were the much better team on the pitch recording many more goal attempts (23-8), shots on goal (7-2), shots off goal (10-2), attacks and dangerous attacks. The hosts also generated much more in xG – 1.82 – 0.39. Getafe have been in fine form lately winning two games in a row. Furthermore, they have lost just one of their latest five matches! In their most recent game they were impressive and beat a strong team Osasuna 2-1 at home. Getafe recorded many more goal attempts (16-10), shots on goal (6-2), shots off goal, attacks (149-104) and dangerous attacks – 45-29.. The hosts also generated much more in xG – 2.67 – 0.59! Before this they beat a very good team, Real Betis (6th place) away from home as clear underdogs according to the bookies 1-0 after an impressive defensive performance. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com Valladolid squad has a total market value of only around 67 million euros which is still too high! Getafe are a much bigger club "on paper” and their players are valued at almost 137 million  - which is marginally too high in my opinion though.. The total market value can, of course, sometimes be misleading but is still a relatively good indicator of a team's level in real action on the pitch! The football (player) market is, after all, a global one.. The biggest, usually somewhat smart bookmakers, football journalists/analysts and particularly professional football bettors pay increasingly more attention to teams' total market values these days.

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巴利亚多利德vs赫塔菲

北京时间周一凌晨，巴利亚多利德和赫塔菲将在西班牙西甲联赛第38轮的比赛中在曼纽尔球场Martínez瓦莱罗展开较量。这是最后一轮比赛。在我看来，西甲是仅次于英超的世界第二好的联赛。不幸的是，球迷和我们这些认真的足球投注者不能指望在这里看到一场达到西甲标准的高水平比赛。事实上，我期待着一场焦虑的、充满情绪的防守比赛。几张黄牌，甚至一张红牌都不足为奇。最重要的是，我和我的粉丝在这里又有了一个非常有前途的投注机会!在发布这篇分析的时候，我们已经在联盟中连续赢得了七次选秀权。长期的结果也很有说服力!此外，在撰写预览时，我们正在连胜六次!这场比赛的形势非常清楚。巴利亚多利德至少需要得一分才能避免被降级的残酷命运。然而，一场胜利对他们来说可能还不够。他们的命运取决于阿尔梅里亚，后者目前以40分排名第16位。维戈塞尔塔也有40分。如果他们从阿尔梅里亚和塞尔塔的两场比赛中听到坏消息，他们的动力可能会下降很多!如果他们为了保住在西甲的位置而被迫拿到三分，我认为赫塔菲将有很好的机会通过危险的反击来伤害他们。事实上，巴利亚多利德的情况很严峻。在最近的大多数比赛中，球员们在球场上看起来一点也不自信，有时还会互相怒吼，营造出一种消极的气氛。我也不相信他们的教练。赫塔菲，另一方面，有一个战术上非常聪明的教练，我也相信他是一个领导者!

在下注最后一轮西甲时，重要的是要意识到，如果在比赛结束时得分相等，那么正面交锋将是决胜局。排名18-20的球队下赛季将被降级到西甲。巴利亚多利德本赛季表现糟糕，只拿到了36分。他们在联赛中排名第18位。从纯粹的水平来看，他们并不比埃尔切好多少，埃尔切是一支只有24分的垫底球队!巴利亚多利德的预期点数(xPTS)只有31.21。很难对他们的比赛说什么积极的话。他们的进攻基本上缺乏在这种水平上取得足够进球所需要的一切。球队的结构很差，中场球员在进攻中没有发挥足够的作用。他们的前锋也缺乏创造力，在对手的球门附近缺乏速度和传球准确性。他们在西甲只进了33球。然而，他们的预期目标数量(xG)要大一些。他们的防守也很糟糕，他们丢了63个球。他们的预期进球(xGA)要高得多——73.11个!赫塔菲只丢了45个球，比排在第九位的赫罗纳少得多!赫塔菲在进攻端也很挣扎，主要依靠防守来得分，只有34次进球。然而，它们的xG数量要大得多——准确地说是40.02。赫塔菲目前积41分排在第14位，但在积分方面还算幸运。他们应该得到大约46分。他们几乎肯定不会降级，但如果瓦伦西亚、阿尔梅里亚和塞尔塔这三家球队都能赢球，他们就需要一分来确保自己在西甲的地位。我希望他们防守非常努力，身体对抗，甚至浪费时间，让绝望的东道主在比赛的大部分时间里控制球。拥有最大赌注限制的最大博彩公司认为巴利亚多利德显然是最受欢迎的，他们提供了2.20左右的赔率来获得所有三分。这太低了。然而，我预计他们的赔率会上升，因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在赫塔菲身上。我必须强烈反对这里的博彩市场!客队显然在比赛的各个方面都表现得更好，但我认为，基于我深入的、强有力的数据分析，客队占据了主场优势，这场比赛就像掷硬币一样，没有真正的赢家。事实上，以目前的赔率来看，这是6月份迄今为止最好的赌注之一!根据对客队+0.5个进球障碍的建议投注，我们有很大的机会再一次获胜!

巴利亚多利德在最近的一场比赛中表现不佳，尽管他们在客场对阵阿尔梅里亚的比赛中拿到了一分。这是一场0比0的平局。阿尔梅里亚在球场上表现得更好，他们的进球次数(23-8)、射正(7-2)、射偏(10-2)、进攻和危险进攻都更多。主机也产生了更多

在xG - 1.82 - 0.39。赫塔菲最近状态不错，连赢两场比赛。此外，他们最近五场比赛只输了一场!在最近的一场比赛中，他们给人留下了深刻的印象，在主场2-1击败了强大的奥萨苏纳。赫塔菲的进球次数(16胜10负)、射正(6胜2负)、射偏、进攻(149胜104负)和危险进攻(45胜29负)更多。主机在xG - 2.67 - 0.59中也产生了更多!在此之前，他们在客场击败了一支非常优秀的球队，皇家贝蒂斯(第6名)，根据博彩公司的统计，他们在防守表现出色后以1-0的比分明显处于劣势。据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com报道，巴利亚多利德队的总市值只有6700万欧元左右，这仍然太高了!赫塔菲是一家“纸面上”更大的俱乐部，他们的球员价值近1.37亿美元——在我看来这个数字有点高了。当然，总市值有时可能会被误导，但仍然是球队在球场上实际行动水平的一个相对较好的指标!足球(球员)市场毕竟是一个全球性的市场。如今，最大的、通常有些精明的博彩公司、足球记者/分析师，尤其是职业足球投注者，越来越关注球队的总市值。