Elche vs Cadiz

Elche host Cadiz for this Spanish LaLiga round 38 clash at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero very early Monday morning Beijing time. This is the last round of play. LaLiga, is in my opinion, the second-best league in the world after the English Premier League. Football fans and us serious football bettors cannot, unfortunately, expect a very high-level or game by LaLiga standards here between these lowly teams. Most importantly, my fans and I have yet another extremely promising betting opportunity here! We have won seven picks in a row in this league and the long term results are also very strong! Moreover, we are on a winning streak of six picks at the time of writing this! The situation ahead of this game is very clear. Indeed, neither team has anything left to play for.. In these kinds of games the home team usually has a bigger chance of taking points than in a normal midseason game. Elche will be relegated – this has been a certainty for a long time already. 

Although Elche will want to quickly forget the 2022-23 season, Elche have experienced a new lease of life since their relegation was confirmed with a 1-2 defeat against Almeria. Indeed, they have not lost any of their most recent four games. They will surely want to thank their loyal fans for their support by giving their best here and at least not lose.. I see this match as more high-scoring than the betting market does as neither team has an actual reason to defend hard - entertaining the fans by scoring goals surely interests the players here! The probability of over 2.5 total goals to be scored is 57% here. The Cadiz defense has, in fact, been very shaky this season and they have conceded 52 goals. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is extremely high -  70.12! Elche's defense has been leaky as well. Their defense doesn't have the best structure but too many individual mistakes have been their biggest problem so far..

Cadiz, on the other hand, have achieved their goal of avoiding relegation and can be happy with their season. They are, after all, a very small team in terms of financial resources and historical success. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com their squad has a total market value of only 62.40 million euros. Elche players are valued at 60.70 million  - which is marginally too high in my opinion though. Cadiz occupy the 15th place in this league with a total of 20 clubs. They have 41 points to their account but their number of expected points (xPTS) is just 36.03. Elche are the rock-bottom team in LaLiga. They have taken just 24 points but are a much better team than the standings would suggest. Their number of expected points is 34.38. Despite the releagation they have a good team spirit according to my sources. In their most recent match they took a fine win away from home over a strong team – especially at home - Atletico Bilbao, who are currently in 8th place with 50 points. Elche were priced close to 10.00 to win on the betting market! This is yet another example of Elche being underrated by the bookies! The biggest bookies with the largest stake limits see Cadiz as favorites here offering them odds of around 2.55 to take all three points. I expect their odds to go up though as smart money is expected to pile up on Elche.. I must strongly disagree with the betting market here!

Cadiz are missing Alzaraz, Cala, Chust, Fernandez, Garrido, Ocampo and Zaldua. At the time of writing this analysis Sunday morning Beijing time Elche have many questionable players but only Alamo and Clerc are confirmed absentees. By pure class Cadiz are marginally the better team but taking the substantial home advantage into account Elche deserve to be solid favorites! With the recommended bet of +0.5 goals handicap on the hosts we have a big chance of winning - once again! Cadiz beat a struggling team, Celta Vigo, as solid favorites according to the bookies, in the most recent game but this match could have gone either way. The visitors recorded more shots on goal and dangerous attacks and had 51% ball possession. Cadiz did generate more in xG though and grabbed a 1-0 home win after a pretty low-level game. Before this win they lost three out of four games – without scoring a single goal in these three matches!

埃尔切vs加的斯

北京时间周一凌晨，埃尔切主场迎战加的斯，这场西甲第38轮比赛将在曼纽尔球场Martínez瓦莱罗举行。这是最后一轮比赛了。在我看来，西甲是仅次于英超的世界第二好的联赛。不幸的是，球迷和我们这些认真的足球投注者不能指望在这些低级球队之间进行一场非常高水平的西甲比赛。最重要的是，我和我的粉丝在这里又有了一个非常有前途的投注机会!我们在这个联赛中已经连续赢得了七次选秀权，长期的结果也非常强劲!而且，在写这篇文章的时候，我们已经连续赢了6次了!这场比赛的形势非常清楚。的确，两队都没有什么可争的了。在这种类型的比赛中，主队通常比在正常的赛季中期比赛中有更大的机会得分。埃尔切将会降级——这已经确定了很长时间了。

虽然埃尔切希望尽快忘记2022-23赛季，但埃尔切在1-2击败阿尔梅里亚后确认降级，因此获得了新生。事实上，他们在最近的四场比赛中没有输过一场。他们一定会想要感谢他们忠实的球迷们的支持，他们在这里竭尽全力，至少不会输。我认为这场比赛比赌球市场上的得分更高，因为两支球队都没有真正的理由去努力防守——通过进球来娱乐球迷肯定会让这里的球员感兴趣!总进球数超过2.5个的概率是57%。事实上，加的斯的防守本赛季非常不稳定，他们已经丢了52个球。然而，他们的预期进球(xGA)是非常高的——70.12!埃尔奇的防守也有漏洞。他们的防守没有最好的结构，但是太多的个人失误是他们目前最大的问题。

另一方面，加的斯已经实现了他们的保级目标，并且可以对他们的赛季感到满意。毕竟，就财务资源和历史成就而言，他们是一支非常小的团队。根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，这支球队的总市值只有6240万欧元。埃尔切球员的身价是6070万英镑——在我看来这个数字有点高了。加的斯在这个联赛中排名第15位，共有20家俱乐部。他们的账户上有41分，但他们的期望分数(xPTS)只有36.03分。埃尔切是西甲垫底的球队。虽然他们只拿到了24分，但他们比积分榜上的表现要好得多。他们的期望值是34.38分。根据我的消息来源，尽管关系紧张，但他们有很好的团队精神。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场战胜了一支强大的球队，尤其是在主场——毕尔巴鄂竞技，后者目前以50分排名第8。在投注市场上，Elche的价格接近10.00美元!这又是一个埃尔切被庄家低估的例子!拥有最大赌注限制的最大博彩公司认为加的斯在这里是最受欢迎的，他们提供的赔率约为2.55，可以获得所有三分。我预计他们的赔率会上升，因为预计聪明的钱会堆积在埃尔奇身上。我必须强烈反对这里的博彩市场!

加的斯缺少阿尔萨拉兹、卡拉、查斯特、费尔南德斯、加里多、奥坎波和扎尔杜瓦。在北京时间周日早上写这篇分析的时候，埃尔切有很多有问题的球员，但只有阿拉莫和克莱克被确认缺席。从纯粹的等级来看，加的斯稍微好一点，但考虑到主场的优势，埃尔切应该是最受欢迎的球队!在东道主的建议赌注+0.5个进球障碍下，我们有很大的机会获胜-再一次!在最近的一场比赛中，加的斯击败了一支处境艰难的球队维戈塞尔塔，根据博彩公司的说法，这支球队是最受欢迎的球队，但这场比赛可能会有两种结果。客队的射门和危险进攻次数更多，控球率为51%。加的斯在xG确实产生了更多，在一场相当低水平的比赛后，他们主场1-0获胜。在这场胜利之前，他们输掉了四场比赛中的三场——在这三场比赛中没有进一球!