Corinthians VS Atletico-MG

Corinthians welcome Atletico-MG for this Copa do Brazil (Brazilian Cup) battle at Neo Quimica Arena in Sao Paulo Thursday morning Beijing time. I expect a pretty entertaining and high-level match here as the Brazilian Serie A is the best league in South America and is of pretty high level by global standards. Neither Corinthians nor Atletico-MG are among the very best teams in Brazil but are still capable of fine football. Corinthians have had a disappointing start to the season and I have, as a result, lowered their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. Even so, it seems the bookies have reacted to this too heavily and now undervalue Corintinthians. I want to mention that according to a very well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the Corinthians players have a total market value of just around 96 million euros. In my opinion this is still a little too high. I would set the number at around 93 million.. . The visitors' players have a total market value of approximately 102 million which is slightly too high as well! My point is that the teams should be somewhat equal "on paper".. However, the total market value can, of course, sometimes be misleading but is still a pretty good indicator of a team's level in real action on the pitch.. The football (player) market is, after all, a global one.. The smart bookmakers, football journalists/analysts and particularly professional football bettors pay increasingly more attention to teams' total market values these days.. However, if two players are equally capable and one of them is 25 years old and the other one is 35, the younger one is, of course, much more valuable.. For example, World Champion Leo Messi or Barcelona's Polish super star Robert Lewandowski do not have even close to the highest current market value despite being top-8 players on the planet! 

Let's not forget that last season Corinthians finished in 4th place with 65 points to their account. They had a good score difference of 44:36. I do not expect them to be significantly worse this season. The potential is there and they can improve in all areas of the game. Atletico-MG, on the other hand, ended up in 7th place – seven points behind Corinthians! The visitors currently occupy the 4th place in the standings with 14 points in their pocket but their number of expected points (xPTS) is a little lower. Yes, they were the better team in the first leg winning 2-0. However, they played better than normally - Corinthians were worse than their average level. Today even a loss by a margin of one goal would be enough for the visitors to qualify. Despite being the better team with the massive home advantage the hosts should be the favorite here - unlike the biggest bookies seem to believe as they offer both teams odds of around 2.75 to win at the time of writing this analysis. Atletico-MG were not too impressive in their most recent match against Palmeiras at home as solid favorites – priced around 2.25 to win by the bookies. The visitors had more goal attempts -12-9 and also generated more in expected goals (xG) – 1.45-0.73. Corinthians are in the 14th place in the Serie A with eight points but their number of xPTS is 10.02. They took a fine win over a dangerous team Fluminense, currently in 8th place, in their latest game 2-0 at home. They did not dominate the game but did deserve the win after generating more in xG 1.43-1.03.

科林蒂安VS马竞

北京时间周四上午，科林蒂安在圣保罗新基米卡体育馆欢迎马竞参加巴西杯之战。我期待一场非常有趣和高水平的比赛，因为巴西甲级联赛是南美洲最好的联赛，以全球标准来看是相当高水平的。科林蒂安和马竞都不是巴西最好的球队，但他们仍然有能力踢出漂亮的足球。科林蒂安本赛季的开局令人失望，因此我降低了他们反映球队纯粹等级的能量评级。即便如此，博彩公司似乎对此反应过度，现在低估了科林蒂安的价值。我想说的是，根据一家非常知名和受人尊敬的德国网站Transfermarkt.com，科林蒂安球员的总市值约为9600万欧元。在我看来，这个价格还是有点太高了。我估计这个数字在9300万左右。客队球员的总市值约为1.02亿，这也有点太高了!我的观点是，两支球队在“纸面上”应该是平等的。当然，总市值有时可能会误导人，但它仍然是球队在球场上实际表现水平的一个很好的指标。足球(球员)市场毕竟是一个全球性的市场。如今，聪明的博彩公司、足球记者/分析师，尤其是职业足球投注者，越来越关注球队的总市值。然而，如果两个能力相当的球员，其中一个25岁，另一个35岁，那么年轻的那个当然更有价值……例如，世界冠军梅西或巴塞罗那的波兰超级巨星罗伯特·莱万多夫斯基虽然是世界排名前八的球员，但他们的市值却远不及目前的最高水平!

让我们不要忘记上赛季科林蒂安以65分的积分排名第四。他们的比分相差44:36。我不认为他们本赛季会变得更糟。潜力是存在的，他们可以在比赛的各个方面都有所提高。另一方面，马竞排名第七，落后科林蒂安7分!客队目前以14分的成绩排在积分榜第4位，但他们的期望积分(xPTS)略低。是的，他们在第一回合以2比0获胜时表现更好。然而，他们踢得比平时好——科林蒂安比他们的平均水平差。今天即使只输一球也足以让客队出线。尽管拥有巨大的主场优势，但东道主应该是最受欢迎的球队——不像最大的博彩公司似乎认为的那样，因为在撰写本文时，他们为两支球队提供了2.75左右的赔率。马竞- mg在最近主场对阵帕尔梅拉斯的比赛中并没有给人留下太深刻的印象，他们的夺冠概率在2.25左右。客队有更多的进球尝试-12-9，也产生了更多的预期进球(xG) - 1.45-0.73。科林蒂安虽然积8分排在意甲第14位，但他们的积分是10.02分。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场以2比0战胜了目前排名第8的危险球队弗鲁米嫩塞。他们没有控制比赛，但在1.43-1.03的比赛中创造了更多的机会，赢得了比赛。