In my opinion Nurnberg have bigger chances to avoid in this game than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

Nurnberg have excellent streak against Paderborn as they didn’t lost against them in last 5 matches in a row. Nurnberg made 7 points in last 3 matches at this stadium, they also won at home first match of the season between both teams.

Paderborn simply plays for nothing as they safe in the table. On the other hand Nurnberg is still involved in fight to avoid relegation so for sure they will give absolutely everything to avoid loss here. Motivation is on the highest possible level.

I believe Nurnberg is able to make some points here because they have all required tools to score at least one goal today. Paderborn defensive formation at the moment is extremely unstable as they failed to keep clean sheet in last 5 matches in a row. In 4 of those matches they conceded more than one goal. On the other hand Nurnberg scored 5 goals in last 3 matches. Also they scored at least one goal in all 7 matches against Paderborn, 5 times they scored more than one.

Guests have good chances to not concede more than one goal here and that should be enough to avoid loss. In last two matches their defensive formation looked solid: against Magdeburg on away they had 0.73 expected goals conceded, in last round at home against Hansa they finished with only 0.27 expected goals conceded. Improvement is really visible.

I see good value on away side which coming here with big motivation.

在我看来，纽伦堡在这场比赛中有更大的机会避免，而不是赌徒给我们的赔率。

纽伦堡在对阵帕德博恩的比赛中表现出色，他们在最近的5场比赛中都没有输过。纽伦堡在这个球场的最近3场比赛中得到7分，他们还在主场赢得了两队本赛季的第一场比赛。

帕德博恩只是在牌桌上坐稳了，什么也不打。另一方面，纽伦堡仍然在为保级而战，所以他们肯定会尽一切努力避免在这里输球。动机是尽可能高的。

我相信纽伦堡能够在这里取得一些积分，因为他们今天拥有至少一个进球所需的所有工具。帕德博恩目前的防守阵型非常不稳定，他们最近5场比赛都没能保持零封。其中有4场他们丢了不止一个球。另一方面，纽伦堡在最近3场比赛中打进5球。在对帕德博恩的7场比赛中，他们都至少进了一个球，其中5次进球超过一个。

客人有很好的机会不丢一个以上的球，这应该足以避免损失。在最近两场比赛中，他们的防守阵型看起来很稳固:客场对阵马格德堡时，他们的预期失球数为0.73，上一轮主场对阵汉萨时，他们的预期失球数仅为0.27。进步是显而易见的。

我在客场看到了很好的价值，他们带着巨大的动力来到这里。