The most logical bet from Serie A today 贝内文托vs帕尔马
2021-04-03

Przem

外籍分析师

意甲

04/03 21:00

已完赛

解读理由:

In my opinion Parma have really good chances to make at least one point in today's match up.

I believe Parma have much bigger motivation to get something from that game. At the moment they are in relegation zone, 4 points behind safe place and only 10 rounds left. In my eyes they have much bigger potential than that and they should be able to avoid relegation. On the other hand Benevento is in pretty safe spot - 7 points above relegation zone, but I don't see them as a better team than Parma in overall.

Benevento won in last round on away against Juventus - on the paper that's looks like great result, but that was extremely lucky. Expected goals for Juve 2.18, for Benevento 0.40. 21 against 7 in shots and 73% ball possession for Juventus. Worth to mention that was first win for Benevento in last 12 matches..

On the other hand Parma in 2021 plays much better football than Benevento, but they were very unlucky as they dropped already 14 points from winning position this year (the highest number from all big European leagues). Anyway, they didn't lost in 4 of last 6 matches. Even when they lost in last round against Genoa at home (1:2) they played better than their opponents - expected goals scored for Parma 2.31, for Genoa 1.04. In last away match they get one point against Fiorentina, but they should win - expected goals scored for Parma 2.56, for Fiorentina 1.33.

If Parma continues to play on this level they should make some points here. For me this is the most logical bet from Serie A today.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

在我看来,帕尔马在今天的比赛中有很好的机会至少得一分。

我相信帕尔马有更大的动力从那场比赛中得到一些东西。目前他们处于保级区,落后安全区4分,只剩下10轮了。在我看来,他们有更大的潜力,他们应该能够避免降级。另一方面,贝内文托处于一个相当安全的位置——比降级区高出7分,但我不认为他们是一支比帕尔马更好的球队。

贝内文托在上一轮客场对阵尤文图斯的比赛中取得了胜利——从报纸上看,这是一个不错的结果,但这是非常幸运的。预计尤文进球2.18,贝尼文进球0.40。21对7的投篮命中率和73%的控球率。值得一提的是,这是贝内文托在过去12场比赛中的第一场胜利。

另一方面,帕尔马在2021年的表现要比贝内文托好得多,但他们非常不幸,因为他们今年已经离冠军位置下降了14分(欧洲所有大型联赛中得分最高的球队)。不管怎样,他们在过去6场比赛中没有输掉4场。即使在上一轮主场1:2输给热那亚的比赛中,他们的表现也比对手要好——帕尔马的进球是2.31,热那亚的进球是1.04。在上一场客场对阵佛罗伦萨的比赛中,他们只拿了一分,但是他们应该会赢——帕尔马的进球是2.56,佛罗伦萨的进球是1.33。

如果帕尔马继续在这个水平上踢球,他们应该在这里取得一些成绩。对我来说,这是今天意甲最合理的赌注。

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