A fine match to bet on! 公开赛杯 洛杉矶FCVS洛城银河
2023-05-24

Tapio

外籍分析师

美公开赛

05/24 10:30

已完赛

解读理由:

Los Angeles FC VS Los Angeles Galaxy


Los Angeles Fc and Los Angeles Galaxy lock horns in this US Open Cup 1/8-finals battle at Banc of California Stadium  Wednesday morning Beijing time. The level of football in the MLS league where both teams play has improved considerably during the past 10 or so years. Most teams play entertaining, aggressive and offensive football – at least in the regular season games. Entertaining the often big crowd is considered important in the US and Canada – the same is true in the NBA and NHL. The football fans and us bettors can expect good entertainment today. This competition is not the main priority but both teams would still love to beat their one the main rivals in this Los Angeles derby! I expect both teams to be a little more defensive than in a normal MLS game here. I believe the visitors coach understands very well that they are unlikely to beat Los Angeles FC in an open ”goal-scoring contest” kind of game. Indeed, I see the results of under 2.5 to be scored here as more probable than the betting market does. Based strongly on data-based analysis the probability is 41%. The home advantage is surely there but it is almost always - in all the big football leagues – smaller in derbys than in a ”normal” game.

There is no doubt about the fact that the hosts are the better team here. They do have an edge in all areas of the game. Even so, the current odds of around 1.60 on the hosts to win during the 90 minutes of play offered by the usually pretty smart bookies that offer the biggest betting limits are way too low! We will, however, go with the +1.5 goals handicap option with a very good chance of winning. Los Angeles FC have not fully impressed me recently and have won just one of their latest five games during the 90 minutes of play. Furthermore. They have won just one of their latest five matches by a margin of more than one goal. LA Galaxy have suffered a defeat by a difference of more than one goal just once in their most recent five games. Yes, it is true LA Galaxy are having a difficult season and are the rock-bottom team in the Western Conference where both teams play. They have nine points to their account but would have deserved more in terms of expected points (xPTS). The bookies seem to have lost faith in them already and undervalue them here. This competition is a good chance for them to boost morale and perhaps even win something this season.. They will surely improve as the season progresses! Let's not forget that last season they finished in 4th place after the regular season with a respectable number of points – 50 to be precise. Not that much has changed for this season after all.. According to a famous and well-respected German website, Transfermarkt.com the difference between the teams is not big. Indeed, the hosts' players have a total market value of around 55 million euros. LA Galaxy's squad, on the other hand, is valued at approximately 43 million. They lost their most recent match 0-3 against DC United away from home.. However, the match was much more balanced than the final score suggests. The visitors had 53% ball possessession and even recorded more shots on goal. They should have scored at least once after generating 1.02 in expected goals (xG). The hosts number was 1.43. This loss probably affects the odds too much here..



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

洛杉矶FC VS洛杉矶银河


北京时间周三上午,美国公开赛1/8决赛将在加州银行体育场举行,洛杉矶Fc和洛杉矶银河队将展开激战。两支球队都参加的美国职业足球大联盟的足球水平在过去10年左右的时间里有了很大的提高。大多数球队踢的是娱乐性强、进攻性强的足球——至少在常规赛中是这样。在美国和加拿大,娱乐观众通常是很重要的,在NBA和NHL也是如此。球迷和我们这些投注者今天可以期待很好的娱乐了。这场比赛不是最重要的,但两支球队仍然希望在这场洛杉矶德比中击败他们的主要对手!我希望两支球队在这里比在一场正常的大联盟比赛中更加防守。我相信客队的教练很清楚,他们不可能在一场公开的“进球比赛”中击败洛杉矶足球俱乐部。事实上,我认为低于2.5的结果比赌博市场更有可能在这里得分。基于强烈的数据分析,概率是41%。主场优势当然是存在的,但在所有大型足球联赛中,德比的主场优势几乎总是比“正常”的比赛要小。

毫无疑问,东道主在这里是更好的球队。他们在比赛的各个方面都有优势。即便如此,在90分钟的比赛中,东道主获胜的赔率约为1.60,这是由通常非常聪明的博彩公司提供的最大投注限制,这实在太低了!然而,我们将选择+1.5个进球的障碍选项,这是一个非常好的获胜机会。洛杉矶FC最近并没有给我留下深刻的印象,在最近的五场比赛中,他们在90分钟的比赛中只赢了一场。此外。在最近的五场比赛中,他们只赢了一场超过一球的比赛。洛杉矶银河队在最近的5场比赛中只有1场以1球以上的差距落败。是的,这是真的洛杉矶银河队正在经历一个艰难的赛季,是西部联盟中垫底的球队。他们目前有9分,但从预期积分(xPTS)来看,他们应该得到更多。博彩公司似乎已经对他们失去了信心,低估了他们的价值。这场比赛对他们来说是一个鼓舞士气的好机会,甚至可能在本赛季赢得一些东西。随着赛季的进行,他们一定会进步的!别忘了上个赛季常规赛结束后,他们以可观的分数排名第四,确切地说是50分。毕竟这个赛季没有太大的变化。根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的说法,两支球队之间的差距并不大。事实上,东道主球员的总市值约为5500万欧元。另一方面,洛杉矶银河队的身价约为4300万美元。他们最近一场客场0比3输给了华盛顿联队。然而,这场比赛比最终比分显示的要平衡得多。客队有53%的控球率,甚至有更多的射门记录。在预期进球数(xG)达到1.02之后,他们应该至少进一次球。主机数为1.43。这个损失可能会影响到这里的赔率。

观点仅代表作者本人,不代表本站立场。
作者在平台、组织、网站等发表的言论,意见,倾向等都只是作者本人的观点,和平台,组织网站等第三方没有关系。