Le Havre VS Valenciennes

Le Havre and Valenciennes lock horns in this French Ligue 2 round 38 battle at Stade Océane early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This is of decent level by European standards but the difference compared to the first tier is substantial.  The stakes are gigantic in this match and I expect an intense, physical clash with a lot of emotions - and quite probably several yellow cards or even a red card. Le Havre currently top the Ligue 2 standings with a whopping 71 points to their account. They have had a very good season – no denying that. However, they have been over-rated by the betting market many times this season and this is definitely the case here as well. They have been lucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). Indeed, they would have deserved just 67.11 points. They have netted the ball just 44 times in Ligue 2 so far this season – this is not a high number at all. A total of seven teams have scored more goals. Their defense has been the main key to success this season. It has been solid and defenders make few stupid mistakes. They have conceded just 16 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is still much higher – 22.12. I want to highlight that they have not won any of their most recent 16 games by a margin of more than one goal! Furthermore, they have won just five of their most recent 10 games. Today they have a 54% chance of taking all three points.  Even a point would be  good for them here as they have a margin of five points to Metz, currently in 3rd place. The teams that finish in the top-2 are promoted! Le Havre had played 35 games so far - but Metz only have two games left of the 38 games.

In their most recent match the hosts lost to a pretty small club, Annecy, who are currently in 14th place in the standings. They were heavy favorites – priced around 1.80 by the bookies to win. They had almost 70% ball possession but struggled to create good scoring chances and the host won 1-0 Today the recommended +1.5 goals handicap on Valenciennes is a very good betting option! Valenciennes have had a difficult season and are currently in the 18th place in this league with a total of 20 clubs. The last four four teams are relegated. Even so, Valenciennes have a pretty good chance of avoiding relegation as Pau, in 16th place, have just two points more in the pocket – 41 to be precise. Valenciennes' number of xPTS is 44.56  and the bookies should respect them more! They have lost just one of their most recent four games - in April against a rich and strong team Bordeaux, currently in 2nd place. 0-2 was the final score at home but the match was, in reality, pretty balanced. The final score is indeed misleading! In their most recent match they were unlucky not to beat Pau at home. They had 59% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots on and off goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. They have lost just one of their most recent 12 games by a margin of more than one goal. I expect them to defend and fight hard today. The probability of under 2.5 goals to be scored is 64%.

勒阿弗尔VS瓦朗谢纳

北京时间周二凌晨，勒阿弗尔和瓦朗谢讷将在法国第二联赛第38轮比赛中在奥克萨丹球场展开较量。按照欧洲标准，这是一个不错的水平，但与第一级相比，差距很大。这场比赛的利害关系是巨大的，我预计会有激烈的身体冲突和很多情绪——很可能会有几张黄牌甚至一张红牌。勒阿弗尔目前以71分高居法甲积分榜榜首。他们有一个非常好的赛季，这是不可否认的。然而，他们已经被博彩市场高估了很多次，这绝对是这个赛季的情况。在期望值(xPTS)方面，他们是幸运的。事实上，他们只应该得到67.11分。本赛季到目前为止，他们在法甲联赛中只有44次进球，这个数字一点也不高。总共有七支球队的进球数比他们多。他们的防守是本赛季取得胜利的关键。防守很稳固，后卫很少犯愚蠢的错误。他们只丢了16个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)要高得多——22.12个。我想强调的是，他们在最近的16场比赛中没有赢过一球以上的比赛!此外，他们在最近的10场比赛中只赢了5场。今天他们有54%的机会拿到全部三分。即使是一分对他们来说也有好处，因为他们与目前排名第三的梅斯有5分的差距。进入前2名的球队将被提升!勒阿弗尔到目前为止踢了35场比赛，而梅斯的38场比赛只剩下两场了。

在最近的一场比赛中，东道主输给了目前排名第14位的小俱乐部安纳西(Annecy)。他们是大热门——博彩公司开出的胜率约为1.8英镑。他们有近70%的控球率，但很难创造好的得分机会，东道主以1-0获胜。今天，瓦伦西亚的胜率+1.5是一个非常好的投注选择!瓦伦西亚度过了一个艰难的赛季，目前在联赛中排名第18位，共有20家俱乐部。最后四支球队被降级。即便如此，瓦伦西亚还是有很大的机会保级，因为排在第16位的保罗只多拿了2分——准确地说是41分。瓦伦西亚的xPTS是44.56，博彩公司应该更尊重他们!在最近的四场比赛中，他们只输了一场，那是在4月份对阵一支实力雄厚的波尔多队，目前排名第二。0:2是主场的最终比分，但实际上这场比赛是相当平衡的。最后的比分确实是误导!在最近的一场比赛中，他们很不幸没能在主场击败保罗。他们有59%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数、射门次数、传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数。在最近的12场比赛中，他们只输掉了一场超过一球的比赛。我希望他们今天能努力防守和战斗。进不到2.5球的概率是64%。