Valencia VS Real Madrid

Valencia welcome Real Madrid for this Spanish LaLiga round 35 battle at Estadio de Mestalla early Monday night Beijing time. This is the second-best league in the world and we can expect a good-level and entertaining match here. However, my fans' and my goal is to make a good long-term profit and I am convinced that we have yet another great betting opportunity here! The key thing here is motivation. Real have nothing left to play for anymore. Their season has been a disappointment despite winning the Copa del Rey recently. Last season they lifted the LaLiga trophy and also won the Champions League – once again. I believe the betting market does not fully understand that this season they have been significantly worse than last season. They will finish in second place, behind their ”enemy” Barcelona. This must hurt them a lot! They have grabbed 71 points so far but have been lucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). Indeed, they would have deserved just 67.65 points. Even Atletico Madrid could still topple Real Madrid as they are only two points away. However, both teams will qualify for the UEFA Champions League group stage for next season anyway. Real have scored a good number of goals this season – 70 to be precise. Barcelona have netted the ball ”only” 65 times. However, Real's number of expected goals is ”just” 64.12. Their defense has, however, been surprisingly leaky! It does not have a good structure – for a world-class team.. The defenders have also made too many stupid individual mistakes. They have allowed 32 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is even higher – 36.11! Valencia have had a difficult season – there is not denying that. I expected much more from them – especially offensively. The stakes for them are massive here and I expect the loud fans to offer a gigantic boost here against a club they hate!

Valencia occupy the 16th place with 37 points in their pocket but have been massively unlucky in terms of xPTS. They would have deserved 48.02 points! They have scored just 38 goals but their number of xG is 48.01! The teams who finish 18-20th are relegated to LaLiga2 and this would be a catastrophe for a big team like Valencia. The players know this and have fought very well recently taking three wins and a draw and losing just once in their most recent games! In their most recent game they beat a dangerous team, Celta Vigo, 2-1 away from home as clear underdogs according to the bookies. They deserved the win after generating 1.31 in xG -the hosts number was just 0.58. The bookies – once again – underestimated Valencia. Real have not been very impressive recently despite the narrow win in the Cope del Rey final over Osasuna two weeks ago. Osasuna even recorded more shots on goal - 5-3. Real's main focus has been on the Champions League recently but they got completely crushed by Manchester City 5-1 on aggregate. At home Real were quite okay but Man City beat them 4-0 in England four days ago recording 2.98 in xG – Real managed just 0.32! Real Madrid were totally outplayed and even when the score was "only" 2-0 even Benzema and Modric seemed to lose faith in their chances of leveling the score... This is rare and reflects the fact that Real do not have the same winning mentality as last season - many key players are also pretty old already for top-level.. This loss must be very depressing for the Real players and coach Ancelotti.. He will probably rotate the squad heavily here - for example Kroos and Modric are expected to stay on the bench. If Benzema is out Real's chances of winning decrease significantly! It is hard to give an exact probability estimation as we do not know about Real's start lineup - or mental state (motivation) but with the info we have Real's current odds of around 2.20 are way too low! Valencia +0.5 goals handicap is a great betting option here!

瓦伦西亚VS皇家马德里

北京时间周一晚，瓦伦西亚将在梅斯塔利亚球场迎来西甲联赛第35轮的激战。这是世界上第二好的联赛，我们可以期待一场高水平和有趣的比赛。然而，我的粉丝和我的目标是获得良好的长期利润，我相信我们还有另一个很好的投注机会!这里的关键是动机。皇马已经没有什么可以为之奋斗的了。尽管他们最近赢得了国王杯，但这个赛季的表现令人失望。上个赛季，他们举起了西甲联赛奖杯，并再次赢得了欧洲冠军联赛。我相信博彩市场并没有完全理解他们本赛季的表现比上赛季差很多。他们将以第二名的成绩结束比赛，落后于他们的“敌人”巴塞罗那。这一定让他们很伤心!到目前为止，他们已经拿到了71分，但从预期积分(xPTS)来看，他们还算幸运。事实上，他们应该得到67.65分。即使是马竞也有可能击败皇马，因为他们只差两分。然而，无论如何，两支球队都将有资格参加下赛季的欧洲冠军联赛小组赛。皇马本赛季进了很多球——准确地说是70个。巴萨“只有”65次进球。然而，皇马的预期进球数“只有”64.12个。然而，他们的防御却出人意料地漏洞百出!它没有一个好的结构——对于一支世界级的球队来说……后卫们也犯了太多愚蠢的个人错误。他们丢了32个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)甚至更高——36.11个!瓦伦西亚度过了一个艰难的赛季——这是不可否认的。我对他们有更高的期望，尤其是在进攻端。对他们来说，这里的赌注是巨大的，我希望球迷们能在这里为他们讨厌的俱乐部提供巨大的支持!

瓦伦西亚以37分排在第16位，但在积分方面却非常不走运。他们应该得到48.02分!他们只进了38个球，但他们的进球数是48.01!排名18-20的球队将被降级到西甲，这对于像瓦伦西亚这样的豪门球队来说将是一场灾难。球员们知道这一点，他们最近打得很好，在最近的比赛中取得了三胜一平，只输了一场!在最近的一场比赛中，他们客场2-1击败了一支危险的球队维戈塞尔塔，根据博彩公司的说法，他们显然处于劣势。他们在上一场比赛中取得了1.31的进球，而东道主的得分只有0.58。博彩公司再一次低估了瓦伦西亚。尽管两周前在国王杯决赛中险胜奥萨苏纳，但皇马最近的表现并不令人印象深刻。奥萨苏纳甚至创造了更多的射门记录——5比3。皇马最近的主要注意力都放在了欧冠上，但是他们在总比分上被曼城5-1彻底击败了。在主场皇马踢得还不错，但是四天前曼城在英格兰4-0击败了他们，他们的xG数据是2.98，皇马的xG数据只有0.32!皇马完全被击败了，即使比分“仅仅”是2-0，甚至本泽马和莫德里奇似乎也对他们扳平比分的机会失去了信心。这是罕见的，反映了皇马没有上赛季那样的必胜心态——许多关键球员对于顶级联赛来说已经太老了。这场失利对皇马球员和主教练安切洛蒂来说一定非常沮丧。他可能会在球队中大量轮换阵容，比如克罗斯和莫德里奇可能会留在板凳上。如果本泽马缺阵，皇马获胜的机会将大大减少!很难给出一个准确的概率估计，因为我们不知道皇马的首发阵容，也不知道他们的精神状态(动力)，但根据我们得到的信息，皇马目前2.20左右的赔率太低了!瓦伦西亚+0.5个进球障碍是一个伟大的投注选择!