Mainz vs Stuttgart

Mainz host Stuttgart for this German Bundesliga round 33 at Mewa Arena Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the third-best league in the world but we cannot expect a particularly good game here between these medicore teams. Mainz are currently in the 9th place in this league with a total of 18 teams. They have netted the ball 51 times in this league so far this season. They have 45 points to their account. However, ther number of expected points is significantly lower – 39.45 to be precise. Furthermore, their number of expected goals (xG) is just 46.12. Mathematically they still do have a chance to topple three teams currently in places 6-8th but in reality the probability for this is minimal. At this stage of the season it is important to know that If teams finish on equal points at the end of the season, score difference will be the tie-breaker. Eintracht Frankfurt (8th with 47 points), Wolfsburg (7th with 49 points) and Bayer Leverkusen in 6th place with 49 points all have a better score difference than Mainz at the moment. The key rationale behind this pick is motivation. I have written about the importance of this factor late into the season many times in the past. In general the will to avoid relegation is the strongest motivation there is in European football - especially for a traditional club like Stuttgart! They had to fight very hard to ”save themselves” last season as well and showed awesome fighting spirit in the final minutes of the deciding game! 

Stuttgart have been one of the most unlucky clubs in the biggest European leagues this season. Indeed, they have just 29 points to their account and are in the 17th place in the standings. The teams that finish 17th and 18th are relegated to Bundesliga 2 for next season. Even so, Stuttgart do have a good chance of toppling at least Schalke, currently in 16th place with 31 points in the pocket. Bochum, in the 15th place, have taken 32 points and along with Schalke have just one more game left to play. In terms of xPTS Stuttgart would have deserved 47.12 points! They have scored 40 goals but their number of xG is 51.12. They have been in pretty good form results-wise in the Bundesliga recently but fight very hard and with some luck could easily have taken many more points than the actual six points in their latest five games in this league. In all competitions they have lost just two of their most recent eight matches. In their most recent game they fought well at home against one the best German teams this spring Bayern Leverkusen. It was a 1-1 draw - either team could have taken all three points. Before this they were very unlucky to lose to Hertha Berlin 1-2 away from home. They controlled the match for most of the 90 minutes having 62% ball possession. They recorded more scoring attempts, shots on and off goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and especially dangerous attacks - 56-21. They also generated much more in xG – 1.92 – 0-89 to be precise. Mainz have been abysmal recently losing three games in a row. Their defense has been extremely leaky and they have allowed a whopping nine goals in these three games! The defenders seem to make way too many silly mistakes. In their most recent game they got crushed away from home in the hands of Eintracht Frankfurt. 3-0 was the final score. With today's lineups Stuttgart deserve to be solid favorites with a 46% chance of winning!

美因茨vs斯图加特

北京时间周日晚，德甲第33轮美因茨主场迎战斯图加特。这是世界上第三好的联赛，但我们不能指望这两支球队之间会有一场特别好的比赛。美因茨目前在联赛中排名第9位，共有18支球队。本赛季到目前为止，他们在联赛中取得了51次进球。他们的账户上有45分。然而，他们的期望值要低得多，准确地说是39.45。此外，他们的预期进球数(xG)仅为46.12。从数学上讲，他们仍然有机会击败目前排在6-8位的三支球队，但实际上这种可能性很小。在赛季的这个阶段，重要的是要知道，如果两支球队在赛季结束时得分相等，那么得分差将是决胜局。目前，法兰克福(第8名，积47分)、沃尔夫斯堡(第7名，积49分)、勒沃库森(第6名，积49分)的积分差距都比美因茨大。这个选择背后的关键理由是动机。在过去的赛季后期，我已经多次写过这个因素的重要性。一般来说，保级的愿望是欧洲足球最强烈的动力——尤其是对于斯图加特这样的传统俱乐部!上个赛季，他们也不得不非常努力地“拯救自己”，并在决定性比赛的最后几分钟表现出了令人敬畏的战斗精神!

斯图加特是本赛季欧洲各大联赛中最倒霉的俱乐部之一。事实上，他们只拿到29分，在积分榜上排名第17位。排名第17和第18的球队下赛季将被降级到德甲乙级联赛。即便如此，斯图加特还是有很好的机会至少击败沙尔克，沙尔克目前积31分排在第16位。排在第15位的波鸿已经拿到了32分，他们和沙尔克只剩下最后一场比赛了。从积分来看，斯图加特应该得到47.12分!他们进了40个球，但是他们的进球数是51.12。他们在最近的德甲联赛中取得了不错的成绩，但是他们打得非常努力，如果运气好的话，他们可以在最近的五场比赛中轻松获得比实际的6分更多的积分。在最近的8场比赛中，他们只输掉了2场。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场击败了今年春天德国最好的球队之一拜仁勒沃库森。结果是1比1战平，任何一支球队都可以全取三分。在此之前，他们非常不幸地在客场1-2输给了柏林赫塔。在90分钟的大部分时间里，他们以62%的控球率控制着比赛。他们记录了更多的进球次数、射门次数、传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数，尤其是危险的进攻次数——56比21。他们在xG - 1.92 - 0-89中也产生了更多。美因茨队最近表现糟糕，连输三场。他们的防守漏洞百出，这三场比赛竟然丢了9个球!防守球员似乎犯了太多愚蠢的错误。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场被法兰克福击败，最终比分是3比0。根据今天的阵容，斯图加特有46%的获胜机会，应该是最受欢迎的球队!