Colo Colo vs Curico Unido

Colo Colo welcome Curico Unido for this Chilean Primera Division round 15 battle at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Santiago de Chile Friday morning Beijing time. This league is of somewhat low-level compared to many other South American leagues – for example the Brazilian Serie A and the Argentinian Liga Pro. Football fans and us bettors can expect a mediocre game by this league's standards today. However, we have a good betting opportunity here! It is very easy for anyone who follows Chilean football to realize that Colo Colo are the better the better team here. They do have an edge over the visitors in all areas of the game. However, my point here is that the difference between the two teams is definitely smaller than the betting market seems to estimate. Colo Colo currently occupy the 3rd place in the standings. They have grabbed a total of 23 points so far. However, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they have had some luck on their side. Indeed, their number of xPTS is just 20.09. They have netted the ball 20 times in this league this season but their number of expected goals (xG) is a little smaller – 18.43 to be precise. In fact, in this are of the game they have not been much better than visitors who have scored a respectable 17 goals so far. Colo Colo do have potential to improve offensively but they have lacked some creativity in offense in many games this season – often even at home. The other top-4 teams have scored many more goals than Colo Colo. I expect the visitors to play pretty defensive, perhaps even cautious football today – especially for as long as the score is level. Furthermore, I do not believe they will increase the risk level significantly even if they were to end up trailing by a difference of one goal. Colo Colo often settle for protecting a narrow lead – not giving the opponent any unnecessary chances to equalize. Their fans seem to understand this pretty well. The goal expectancy here is lower than the bookies think. Based on mu sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis the probability of under 2.5 goals to be scored is 51%.

In terms of defensive quality the host do have a decent edge over Curico Unido. The visitors have allowed 27 goals so far and their defenders sometimes make silly mistakes. Even so, their number of goals allowed is just 24.13. They currently occupy the 14th place with 13 points in the pocket. However, their number of xPTS is 17.35. Neither team have been in particularly strong form lately. Indeed, Colo Colo have won two of their latest five games. The visitors, on the other hand, have taken all three points just once in their most recent five matches. The hosts have a 60% chance to win this game but with the +1.5 goals handicap my fans and I have a very good chance of winning! Colo Colo have won just one of their latest seven games by a margin of more than one goal! Curico Unido have lost by more than a one-goal difference just once in their most recent seven games. The hosts were disappointing in their latest game against U. Espaniola away from home. It was a 1-1 draw but U. Espaniola would have deserved a narrow win. Indeed, they recordid 1.32 in xG. Colo Colo's offense was lame and they only generated 0.52 in xG. Moreover, the hosts had 55% ball possession and recorded more shots on goal (5-3), goal attempts, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Colo Colo were clear favorites in this game – prices around 2.00 to win on the betting market. Curico Unido were unlucky to lose their most recent game 0-1 at home. They generated 1.43 in xG – Palestino managed just 0.46.

Colo Colo vs Curico Unido

北京时间周五上午，科洛队在智利圣地亚哥纪念大卫·阿雷利亚诺体育场欢迎库利科·图布尔参加智利甲级联赛第15轮的比赛。与许多其他南美联赛相比，这个联赛的水平有些低，比如巴西的意甲联赛和阿根廷的职业联赛。足球迷和我们的投注者可以期待一场平庸的比赛，今天这个联盟的标准。然而，我们在这里有一个很好的下注机会!任何关注智利足球的人都很容易意识到，科洛科洛队在这里越强越好。他们在比赛的各个方面都比客队有优势。然而，我的观点是，两支球队之间的差距肯定比博彩市场估计的要小。Colo Colo目前在积分榜上排名第三。到目前为止，他们已经拿到了23分。然而，就预期积分(xPTS)而言，他们还是有一些运气的。实际上，他们的xpt数量只有20.09个。本赛季他们在联赛中取得了20次进球，但他们的预期进球(xG)要少一些，准确地说是18.43个。事实上，在这场比赛中，他们并没有比客队好多少，客队到目前为止已经打进了可观的17球。科洛-科洛在进攻端确实有提高的潜力，但是他们在本赛季的很多比赛中都缺乏一些创造力——甚至在主场也是如此。其他排名前四的球队都比科罗拉多进了更多的球。我预计客队今天会踢得很防守，甚至可能是谨慎的足球——尤其是在比分持平的情况下。此外，我不相信他们会显著增加风险水平，即使他们最终以一个进球的差距落后。科洛-科洛常常满足于保住微弱的领先优势——不给对手任何不必要的扳平比分的机会。他们的粉丝似乎很明白这一点。这里的进球预期比博彩公司想的要低。根据一项复杂的、高度基于数据的分析，得分低于2.5球的概率是51%。

在防守质量方面，主队确实比库里科维奇有很大的优势。客队到目前为止已经丢了27个球，他们的后卫有时会犯一些愚蠢的错误。即便如此，他们的失球数也只有24.13个。他们目前以13分的积分排名第14位。但是，它们的xPTS数量为17.35个。这两支球队最近的状态都不太好。事实上，Colo Colo在最近的五场比赛中赢了两场。另一方面，客队在最近的五场比赛中只拿到过一次全取三分。主队有60%的机会赢得这场比赛，但由于+1.5个进球的障碍，我和我的球迷有很大的机会获胜!科洛-科洛在最近的七场比赛中只赢了一场，领先一球以上!在最近的七场比赛中，库里科-工发队只输了一球以上。东道主在最近一场客场对阵西班牙的比赛中表现令人失望。比赛打成1-1平局，但西班牙队本应以微弱优势取胜。事实上，他们在xG的记录是1.32。Colo Colo的进攻很差劲，他们的得分只有0.52。此外，主队的控球率为55%，射门次数(5-3)、进球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。在这场比赛中，Colo Colo显然是最受欢迎的——在博彩市场上，价格在2.00左右。库里科- Unido不幸在主场0-1输掉了他们最近的一场比赛。他们在xG中产生了1.43个，而巴勒斯坦人只产生了0.46个。