AC Milan VS Inter Milan

AC Milan and Inter Milan lock horns in this UEFA Champions League semi-final first leg battle at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) early Thursday morning Beijing time. The stakes are massive here as neither team have reached even close to this stage of the competition for a long time. I expect an intense and physical clash – quite possibly with many cards today! The goal expectancy in the first leg with a lot at stake is usually low and this is the case here as well. The bookies and smart bettors, of course, know this but I see this match as even more low-scoring than the betting market does. My probability estimation on under 2.5 goals to be scored is 71%. Especially the first half is expected to be defensive, perhaps even cautious football. The draw would certainly not be a disappointment for either team. We could witness the same yesterday when both Real Madrid and Man City seemed to be satisfied with the 1-1 draw in the other semi-final clash. The probability of this result is high – 33% and would be enough to bring my fans and me a winner here with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap on AC Milan. 

There is no doubt about the fact that Inter are the better team here. They have an edge both offensive and defensively. However, the difference in class between these teams from Milan is marginal in my view! Inter have grabbed a total of 63 points and currently occupy the 4th place in the Serie A standings. The hosts, on the other hand, have a total of 61 points to their account. Both teams would have deserved more points in terms of expected points (xPTS). AC Milan have netted the ball 55 times in Serie A so far but in terms of expected goals they would have deserved 63 goals! Today I expect a lot from the French veteran striker  Olivier Giroud scored the opener in Milan’s second leg against Napoli with his fifth Champions League goal of the season. Let's hope the hosts can stop Inter's Lautaro Martínez  here. He is a deadly striker and has scored four goals across Inter’s last three games. The home advantage here is a little smaller as both teams play their home games at the same stadium but we still have to give this factor enough emphasis! In the betting market Inter are solid favorites – priced around 2.45 to win. I have to disagree – I think this match is a coin toss - a 50/50% game without a favorite.

I want to highlight that Milan were strong against Napoli in the quarter-finals! I must admit that I may have under-estimated them ahead of the first leg.. However, I do not think any professional bettor, neutral football journalists or bookie saw the matchup even close to 50-50%! Indeed, Napoli were solid favorites. Let's not forget that Napoli have been a dominant team in the Serie and have already secured the championship! I was impressed by the way Milan were able to shut down Napoli's very strong offense! Indeed they won the first leg 1-0. Napoli dominated the first 25 minutes of this game but after that Milan were in control – even without the ball. In the second leg Napoli made it 1-1 late into the second half but Milan did not panic. They truly deserved to qualify. Let's also remember that in April AC Milan beat Napoli 4-0 away from home! What a magnificent performance! Moreover, Milan have not lost any of their latest nine games. In their most recent match they were strong against a dangerous opponent, Lazio, who are currently in third place. Milan recorded 1.21 in expected goals – Lazio generated just 0.59. Milan also recorded many more shots on goal (3-0), goal attempts, total passes, completed passes and dangerous attacks - 48-24. Inter, too, have been in fine form lately taking six wins, three draws and losing just once in their most recent 10 games. In their most recent match they beat Roma 2-0 away from home but had luck on their side as the hosts recorded more in xG – 1.05-0.79.

AC米兰VS国际米兰

北京时间周四凌晨，AC米兰和国际米兰将在圣西罗球场展开欧冠半决赛首回合的激战。这里的利害关系是巨大的，因为两支球队很长时间都没有接近这个阶段的比赛。我预计会有激烈的身体冲突——今天很可能会有很多牌!第一回合的进球预期通常很低，这也是这种情况。当然，赌徒和聪明的投注者都知道这一点，但我认为这场比赛比投注市场更低。我估计进不到2.5球的概率是71%。尤其是上半场，预计将是防守，甚至可能是谨慎的足球。平局对任何一支球队来说都不会令人失望。昨天我们可以看到同样的情况，皇马和曼城似乎都对半决赛的1-1平局感到满意。这个结果的概率很高——33%，这足以让我和我的球迷在推荐的+0.5个进球的情况下赢得AC米兰。

毫无疑问，国米在这里是一支更好的球队。他们在进攻和防守上都有优势。然而，在我看来，这些球队与米兰之间的阶级差异是微不足道的!国际米兰总共拿到了63分，目前在意甲积分榜上排名第四。另一方面，东道主的账户上总共有61分。从期望积分(xPTS)的角度来看，两支球队都应该得到更多的积分。到目前为止，AC米兰在意甲联赛中打进55球，但按照预期进球数计算，他们应该打进63球!今天我对法国老将吉鲁寄予厚望，吉鲁在米兰第二回合对阵那不勒斯的比赛中破门，这是他本赛季的第五个欧冠进球。希望主队能阻止国米的劳塔罗Martínez。他是一名致命的前锋，在国米最近三场比赛中打进4球。由于两支球队的主场比赛都在同一个球场进行，所以主场优势有点小，但我们仍然必须给予这个因素足够的重视!在博彩市场上，国米是最受欢迎的球队，赔率在2.45左右。我不同意——我认为这场比赛是一场掷硬币的比赛——一场没有赢家的对半比赛。

我想强调的是，米兰在1 / 4决赛中对阵那不勒斯的表现非常强大!我必须承认在第一回合之前我可能低估了他们。然而，我不认为任何专业的投注者、中立的足球记者或博彩公司认为这场比赛接近50-50%!事实上，那不勒斯是最受欢迎的球队。让我们不要忘记那不勒斯在意甲一直是一支统治力很强的球队，并且已经获得了冠军!我对米兰能够压制那不勒斯强大进攻的方式印象深刻!事实上，他们第一回合以1比0获胜。那不勒斯控制了这场比赛的前25分钟，但在那之后米兰控制了比赛——即使没有球。在第二回合比赛中，那不勒斯在下半场将比分扳成1-1，但米兰并没有惊慌。他们确实应该晋级。让我们也记住四月AC米兰客场4-0击败那不勒斯!多么精彩的表演啊!此外，米兰在最近的9场比赛中没有输过一场。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在面对一个危险的对手拉齐奥时表现得很强势，拉齐奥目前排名第三。米兰的预期进球数为1.21，而拉齐奥仅为0.59。米兰的射门次数(3比0)、进球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数和危险进攻次数也更多——48比24。国米在最近的10场比赛中也取得了6胜3平1负的好成绩。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们客场2-0击败了罗马，但运气不错，主队的比分是xG - 1.05-0.79。