Which Italian is the favorite here?
2023-05-10

Borja

外籍分析师

欧冠

05/11 03:00

已完赛

解读理由:

For both teams it is a huge success to be here. This is the first time for Milan since 2006/07, and for Inter since 2009/10. So both teams have very little experience at this stage of the UCL.

Both teams have already met on three fixtures so far this season: Milan won 3:2 on September (Serie A), while Inter won 3:0 in the Supercup and 1:0 in Serie A. So we see a huge home advantage in their recent fixtures. Last season it’s very similar too: In the Cup Inter won 3:0 after drawing 0:0 in the first leg, and in Serie A Milan won 1:2 and drew 1:1.

Both teams have reached the semifinals in UCL being rock solid in defense. Milan has conceded just one goal in their last 6 UCL games, which was a nice strike by Napoli at 93’. They’ve rode their luck at times facing 86 shots, 27 shots on target and an xG against of 6.8 in that timeframe, but they’re allowing their opponents shots worth just 0.08 per attempt. There’s something robust about Stefano Pioli’s backline.

For Inter, the situation is pretty similar: 6 clean sheets in 10 UCL games, but must remember that in the second leg game against Benfica conceded 3 goals (3:3) and the clean sheets were against weak teams such as Plzen or Oporto. Barcelona also scored them 3 goals in the group stage game (3:3).

Since the victory against Benfica in the ¼ finals, the form of Inter has been great: 5 straight victories with 15 goals scored and just one conceded, including Juventus and Roma. But Milan aren’t in a worse situation either: since their huge victory 0:4 against Napoli (April 2th), they are unbeaten including the last weekend game against Lazio (2:0). They are showing that they are a very difficult team to beat and a really competitive side.

Rafael Leão is an injury doubt for Milan, who has here another reason to make a slow-pace game, with few goals, and keep the game close for the second leg when he returns.

Surely this will be a very tight game. Both teams will be focused on keeping the goal to nil and avoid a defeat, hoping to solve the match in the second leg. For me this is a total 50-50 game as we have been so far this season, where both teams have been performing very equal and showing a similar level. Furthermore, the home support is very important in this kind of games, so for me hosts have a slight advantage here.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

对于两支球队来说,来到这里是一个巨大的成功。这是米兰自2006/07赛季以来的第一次,也是国际米兰自2009/10赛季以来的第一次。所以这两支球队在欧冠联赛的这个阶段都没什么经验。

这两支球队本赛季迄今为止已经交锋过三次:米兰在9月的意甲联赛中3:2取胜,而国米在超级杯中3:0取胜,在意甲联赛中1:0取胜,所以我们看到他们在最近的比赛中有巨大的主场优势。上赛季的情况也很相似:在杯赛中,国米在首回合0:0战平后以3:0取胜,而在意甲,米兰以1:2取胜,1:1战平。

两队都在防守坚如磐石的情况下进入了UCL半决赛。米兰在最近的6场欧冠比赛中只丢了一个球,那是那不勒斯在93分的一个漂亮的进球。在那段时间里,他们有时会遇到86次射门,27次射正,xG值为6.8,但他们每次只给对手0.08次射门机会。皮奥利的后防线很坚固。

对于国米来说,情况非常相似:在10场欧冠比赛中6场零封,但必须记住,在第二回合对阵本菲卡的比赛中,我们丢了3球(3:3),而且零封都是对阵普莱岑或波尔图这样的弱队。巴塞罗那也在小组赛中为他们打进3球(3:3)。

自1 / 4决赛战胜本菲卡以来,国米的状态一直很好:5连胜,进15球,只丢1球,包括尤文图斯和罗马。但米兰的情况也不差:自从4月2日0:4大胜那不勒斯后,他们保持不败,包括上周末对拉齐奥的比赛(2:0)。他们证明了他们是一支很难被击败的球队,也是一支非常有竞争力的球队。

拉斐尔·莱奥对米兰来说是一个伤情的疑问,他在这里有另一个原因,让比赛节奏缓慢,进球少,并在他回归时保持比赛接近第二回合。

这肯定是一场激烈的比赛。两支球队都将专注于留住球员该球以零比分避免输球,希望能在次回合解决比赛。对我来说,这是一场50-50的比赛,就像我们本赛季到目前为止一样,两支球队都表现得非常平等,表现出相似的水平。此外,主场的支持在这类比赛中非常重要,所以对我来说,东道主在这里有一点优势。

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