AC Oulu vs KuPS

AC Oulu welcome visitors from eastern Finland for this Finnish Veikkausliiga battle at Raatin Stadion in Oulu late Tuesday evening Beijing time. This is my home country's first tier but unfortunately the level by European standards is not high to put it politely.. However, it has been gradually improving in recent years.. However, my fans and I want to make a long-term profit and for this purpose this league will surely be one of the best - especially between June and August when big European leagues are on a summer break. Bookies seem to make many mistakes with their odds on Veikkausliiga – they, understandably, put much more resources on the top-leagues. KuPS started the season very poorly - losing two of their first three games. My fans and I were able to capitalize on this against Honka in the third round when KuPS were abysmal at home losing ”only” 0-1 as solid favorites according to the bookies! This is just one example of wrong odds they sometimes offer in Veikkausliiga matches. In reality Honka dominated the game in terms of dangerous scoring chances and expected goals (xG). Honka wasted many amazing scoring chances and could easily have won 3-0.. I wrote in my preview of this match that KuPS will probably improve as the season progresses - mainly because they lost many key players after last season and have many new players this season. I also criticized their coach, the inexperienced Pasi Tuutti ahead of the game against Honka. Well, he was sacked after this game! He was replaced by Jani ”Honsu” Honkavaara, who returned to Kuopio after a few years. He won the championship with the team back in 2019 and is a much better coach than Tuutti. Even so, Kups have now become too hot on the betting market after three consecutive wins under Honsu..

We must remember that KuPS have not bought any new players in recent weeks and the fact remains – they are clearly worse than last season! Yes, there is no denying the fact that KuPS were strong in their most recent games against HJK, the reigning Finnish champions and the best team in this league. Yes, they have a very deep squad with a big number of quality players by Veikkausliiga standards but there is a limit of absences even HJK can handle without the level of football significantly dropping.. HJK had many absences last Friday in Kuopio against KuPS and the hosts caused HJK their first loss in Veikkausliiga this season – winning 2-1 in front of ecstatic fans.. The missing key defenders hurt HJK massively in this game.. A midfielder was forced to play as a defender etc.. HJK generated just 0.69 in expected goals (xG) - KuPS' number was 1.72. The hosts also recorded more shots on and off goal as well as goal attempts (11-7). My point here is that even taking into account the absences HJK were far from their normal – very high - level in this game and KuPS have received too much praise for the win in the football media. The win clearly affects the odds too much here!  Let's not forget that KuPS do not usually excel on the road – before the HJK game they did beat IFK Mariehamn 2-0 though but before this they failed to win four away games.. IFK Mariehamn are the worst team in this league and KuPS were heavy favorites in this match – priced below 2.00 to win by most bookmakers. Even so, the ball possession was 50-50% and KuPS recorded just one more shot on goal and two more scoring attempts. It was not a magnificent performance – IFK were simply too disorganized in defense in the second half.

 Before the trip to Mariehamn KuPS dominated the events on the pitch at home despite winning just 1-0. Ilves played below their normal level game but KuPS struggled offensively and Antwi managed to score the goal no sooner than in the 83rd minute. In terms of offensive quality KuPS still have a long way to go in trying to reach the level of last season - I don't think they will! I want to highlight that AC Oulu have started the season well! They have many young very talented players, for example the 18-year-old midfielder Otso Liimatta. Big European clubs are watching him closely and he will most probably not play in Veikkausliiga next season.. AC Oulu have grabbed eight points so far and have lost just once! This loss happened on the 29th of April at home against a dangerous team, SJK, 0-3. Yes, it was a horribly bad performance, no denying that! However, SJK's coach, J. Gomez, tactically humiliated the hosts' R. Duarte completely in this match. SJK, untypically for them – played very straightforward football and put massive pressure on AC Oulu's defense! The betting market has over-reacted to this performance! I want to emphasize that SJK are a very strong team and also played above their level in this match. Yes, they fully deserved the three points but the final score still does flatter them. AC Oulu were heavily criticized, even laughed at, for this match in the Finnish football media. Even so, they beat Ilves 2-1 away from home in the next game last Friday after a fine performance priced around 3.70 to win on the betting market. Indeed, they recorded many more goal attempts, shots on and off goal. Furthermore, AC Oulu generated 1.84 in xG - Ilves managed just 0.56. Before this they faced HJK in Helsinki and it was a 1-1 draw as massive underdogs, HJK priced around 1.45-1.50 to win by the bookies. Even so, AC Oulu had 52% ball possession and many more scoring attempts (11-5) and shots off goal. HJK did record more shots on goal (3-2) and overall the game was a surprisingly balanced one! The xG numbers were almost somewhat balanced. Yes, KuPS do have an edge in all areas of the game here but they are not clear favorites here! The +0.5 goals handicap on the hosts is the smart choice in this match where the probability of under 2.5 goals to be scored is higher than the bookies estimate – 62% to be precise. A draw would probably be a  satisfactory result  for both teams.

AC奥卢vs up

AC奥卢欢迎来自芬兰东部的游客，他们将于北京时间周二晚在奥卢Raatin体育场观看这场芬兰足球联赛的比赛。这是我祖国的第一梯队，但不幸的是，按照欧洲的标准，礼貌地说，水平并不高。然而，近年来情况逐渐好转。然而，我的球迷和我都想要长期盈利，为此，这个联赛肯定会成为最好的联赛之一——尤其是在6月到8月欧洲各大联赛都在夏季休息的时候。博彩公司似乎在维考斯利甲的赔率上犯了很多错误——可以理解的是，他们把更多的资源放在了顶级联赛上。这个赛季的开始非常糟糕，前三场比赛输了两场。我的球迷和我能够在第三轮对阵洪卡的比赛中利用这一点，当时up在主场的表现非常糟糕，只输了0-1，根据博彩公司的说法，他们是最受欢迎的!这只是在维甲联赛中错误赔率的一个例子。事实上，在危险得分机会和预期进球(xG)方面，洪卡主导了比赛。洪卡浪费了很多绝妙的得分机会，本可以轻松3-0取胜。我在这场比赛的预演中写道，随着赛季的进展，up可能会有所进步——主要是因为他们在上赛季之后失去了很多关键球员，而本赛季又有了很多新球员。我还批评了他们的教练，缺乏经验的帕西·图蒂在对阵洪卡的比赛前。他在这场比赛后被解雇了!他的继任者是Jani Honsu Honkavaara，几年后他回到了库奥皮奥。他在2019年带领球队赢得了冠军，是一个比图蒂更好的教练。尽管如此，在本秀秀的带领下，连续三场获胜后，up在博彩市场上变得非常热门。

我们必须记住，最近几周up没有买任何新球员，事实仍然是-他们显然比上赛季更糟糕!是的，不可否认的事实是KuPS在最近的几场比赛中都很强势，他们是芬兰的卫冕冠军，也是这个联赛中最好的球队。是的，他们有一个非常有深度的阵容，有很多高质量的球员，但如果没有足球水平的大幅下降，即使是jk也能承受的缺阵。上周五在库奥皮奥对阵尤普斯的比赛中，jk多次缺阵，东道主让jk本赛季在维克考斯利甲的首场失利——在欣喜若狂的球迷面前以2-1获胜。主力后卫的缺失对hkk造成了巨大的伤害。中场被迫踢后卫等。jk的预期进球(xG)只有0.69，而up的数字是1.72。东道主的射门次数和射门次数(11胜7负)也有所增加。我的观点是，即使考虑到缺阵的情况，jk也远没有达到他们的正常水平——在这场比赛中，他们的水平非常高，而足球媒体对这场胜利的赞扬太多了。显然，获胜对赔率的影响太大了!别忘了，up通常在客场比赛中表现不佳——在与香港的比赛之前，他们确实以2比0击败了玛丽汉姆，但在此之前，他们未能赢得4场客场比赛。IFK玛丽汉姆是这个联赛中最差的球队，而up在这场比赛中是最受欢迎的球队——大多数博彩公司的胜率都在2.00以下。即便如此，控球率仍然是50%，而卡普斯只多了一次射门和两次得分尝试。这并不是一场精彩的比赛——下半场的防守实在是太混乱了。

在前往玛丽汉之前，在主场的比赛中，尽管只有1-0的胜利，但卡普斯在场上占据了主导地位。伊尔维斯的表现低于正常水平，但卡普斯在进攻端表现不佳，安特维在第83分钟就进球了。就进攻质量而言，要达到上赛季的水平，up还有很长的路要走——我不认为他们会!我想强调的是AC奥卢已经开始季节!他们有很多非常有天赋的年轻球员，比如18岁的中场奥特索·利马塔。欧洲各大俱乐部都在密切关注他，下赛季他很可能不会在维克考斯利加踢球。AC奥卢目前已经拿到了8分，只输了一场!这场失利发生在4月29日，主场0-3输给了一支危险的球队SJK。是的，这是一场糟糕透顶的表演，不可否认!然而，在这场比赛中，SJK的教练j·戈麦斯在战术上彻底羞辱了东道主的r·杜阿尔特。SJK，对他们来说很不寻常——踢得很直截了当，给奥卢的防守施加了巨大的压力!博彩市场对这一表现反应过度了!我想强调的是，SJK是一支非常强大的球队，在这场比赛中他们的表现也超出了他们的水平。是的，他们完全配得上这三分，但最后的比分仍然让他们感到高兴。AC奥卢在这场比赛中受到了芬兰足球媒体的严厉批评，甚至嘲笑。即便如此，在上周五的下一场比赛中，他们在客场2-1击败了伊尔维斯，在博彩市场上，他们以3.7英镑的价格赢得了比赛。事实上，他们记录了更多的进球尝试，射门和射门。此外，AC奥卢在xG中获得1.84分，而伊尔维斯仅获得0.56分。在此之前，他们在赫尔辛基面对的是HJK，双方以1比1战平，被认为是一大劣势，HJK的胜率在1.45-1.50左右。即便如此，AC奥卢拥有52%的控球率，更多的得分尝试(11比5)和射门次数。hkk确实有更多的射门(3-2)，总的来说，比赛是一个令人惊讶的平衡!xG的数量几乎是平衡的。是的，up确实在游戏的所有领域都有优势，但他们在这里并不是明确的最爱!在这场比赛中，东道主的+0.5个进球障碍是一个明智的选择，因为进球数低于2.5个的概率高于博彩公司的估计——准确地说，是62%。平局很可能是一件好事。satisfactory  result 对于两支队伍。