Nantes VS Strasbourg

Nantes and Strasbourg lock horns in this French Ligue 1 battle at Stade de la Beaujoire Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the 34th round and a total of 38 rounds will be played. The stakes are sky-high for both teams here. This is the 5th-best league on the planet but seeing a particularly entertaining game would be a surprise. I expect defensive, cautious – perhaps even a little anxious football especially in the first half. Both teams have allowed a pretty high number of goals so far this season but losing this game might turn out to be fatal for both teams.. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 62% - higher than the betting market estimates..

Four teams will be relegated from this league to National for next season. A total of 20 clubs play in Ligue 1. Nantes and Strasbourg have the same number of points to their account – 32 to be precise. Even so, I see Strasbourg as the stronger team with today's expected lineups. By pure class – taking the potential into account - Nantes should, perhaps, even be the better team, but things just do not seem to work for them this season In Ligue 1. Last season they were much better and it seems now that I, the betting market and most football journalists have over-estimated them in Ligue 1. In the UEFA Europa League they played better though. Nantes’ form lately has been so disappointing that Strasbourg have a good chance of taking all three points.. I was very disappointed with Nantes' performance three days ago away from home against a pretty lowly team, Brest. The host took a 2-0 and whilst the match was more balanced Nantes’ offense was very lame and they recorded just 0.61 in expected goals (xG). Moreover, they have not won any of their latest five games. Strasbourg, on the other hand, have been in pretty okay form lately winning two of their latest five matches. They have looked much more confident on the pitch and have a good coach as well. In their most recent match, they faced a strong team, Lyon, at home and recorded more in xG 1.64-1.12 despite losing 1-2. They also recorded more goal attempts, attacks and dangerous attacks.

The probability of a draw is somewhat high – 32%. This would be enough for my fans and me to bring us a winner with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap on Strasbourg. The biggest, often somewhat sharp bookies that offer the biggest betting limits see the visitors as slim favorites here offering them odds of around 2.60 to take all three points. I have to disagree with the bookies and see the visitors as solid favorites here. In terms of expected points (xPTS) Nantes would have deserved several points more than the actual 32. However, Strasbourg have been massively unlucky this season as whole – their number of xPTS is 43.02. Especially in terms of offensive quality they should be clearly the better team here. their number of xG is 48.12 but have, in reality, netted the ball 44 times. Nantes have scored 35 goals.

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北京时间周日晚，南特和斯特拉斯堡将在博若瓦球场展开法甲联赛的激战。这是第34轮，总共将进行38轮比赛。这对两支球队来说都是巨大的赌注。这是世界上排名第五的联赛，但看到一场特别有趣的比赛将是一个惊喜。我期待的是防守，谨慎，甚至可能是有点焦虑的足球，尤其是在上半场。本赛季到目前为止，两支球队都丢了很多球，但输掉这场比赛可能对两支球队都是致命的。根据我复杂的、强有力的基于数据的分析，总进球数低于2.5个的概率是62%——高于博彩市场的估计。

下个赛季将有四支球队从这个联赛降级到全国联赛。法甲共有20家俱乐部。南特和斯特拉斯堡的积分相同——准确地说是32分。即便如此，我认为在今天的阵容中，斯特拉斯堡是一支更强的球队。从纯粹的水平来看——考虑到潜力——南特应该是一支更好的球队，但在这个赛季的法甲联赛中，事情似乎并不适合他们。上个赛季他们的表现要好得多，现在看来，我、博彩市场和大多数足球记者都高估了他们在法甲的表现。在欧联杯上，他们表现得更好。南特最近的状态太令人失望了，斯特拉斯堡很有可能全取三分。我对南特在三天前客场对阵布雷斯特的表现感到非常失望。东道主以2比0取胜，虽然比赛更加平衡，但南特的进攻非常差劲，他们的预期进球(xG)仅为0.61。此外，他们在最近的五场比赛中没有赢过一场。另一方面，斯特拉斯堡最近状态不错，在最近的五场比赛中赢了两场。他们在球场上看起来更自信了，也有了一位好教练。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场面对强大的里昂队，尽管以1比2输掉了比赛，但他们的战绩更高，为1.64比1.12。他们也记录了更多的进球尝试、进攻和危险进攻。

平局的概率有些高——32%。对于我和我的球迷来说，这足以让我们在斯特拉斯堡赢得一场建议的+0.5进球的胜利。最大的、往往有些精明的博彩公司开出了最大的投注限额，他们认为访客队在这里的胜算不大，给他们提供了2.60左右的赔率来获得全部三分。我不同意博彩公司的说法，我认为客队是最受欢迎的球队。从期望积分(xPTS)来看，南特应该比实际的32分多得几分。然而，斯特拉斯堡整个赛季都非常不走运，他们的得分只有43.02。特别是在进攻质量方面，他们显然应该是更好的球队。他们的xG数是48.12，但实际上，他们的进球次数是44次。南特进了35个球。