Profit from Poland? 波兰甲 拉多米亚克VS格里维治
2023-05-06

Tapio

外籍分析师

波兰甲

05/06 21:00

已完赛

拉多米亚克
1:0
格里维治
解读理由:

Radomiak Radom VS Piast Gliwice

Radomiak Radom welcome Piast Gliwice for this Polish Ekstraklasa round 31 clash at MOSiR stadium Saturday evening Beijing time. This league is of mediocre level by European standards. Football fans and us bettors cannot expect very good entertainment here but I am convinced that we have a lucrative betting opportunity here! The visitors currently occupy the 16th place in this league with a total of 18 clubs. Most of my fans probably know by now that I never let the standings fool me in any way. Piast have 43 points to their account at the moment but in terms of expected points (xPTS) they have been lucky so far this season. Indeed, their xPTS is just 39.12. They have netted the ball 33 goals but their number of expected goals (xG) is just 31.13. The 33 goals is not a big number – for example Korona Kielce, currently in 15th place in the standings, have scored more goals – 34 to be precise. The visitors' offense lacks creativity and individual skill. Their attacks are often pretty predictable - making it somewhat easy for the opponent to defend successfully.. The hosts, however, do not have a very strong offense either – they have scored a total of 29 goals so far but their number of goals is 30.91. With today's expected lineup I see the teams equally good in this area of the game. By pure class the visitors are marginally the better team here.

The visitors have conceded five goals less than Radomiak Radom so far and whilst the edge in this area of the game in their favor is smaller than the numbers of goals allowed would reflect the edge is still there. Piast have a slighly better defensive structure and the midfielders are more active in defending than those of the hosts.I expect a defensive, tactical battle here and see this match as even more low-scoring than the betting market does. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 71%. The biggest, often somewhat sharp bookies think that there is no actual favorite in this game, offering both teams odds of about 2.65-2.75 to win. However, based on my in-depth analysis the hosts have a 42% chance of sending Piast home empty-handed. We will however, take the +0.5 handicap option with a high chance of winning. Radomiak do not have the best fans in this league but the home advantage is still substantial and must be given enough emphasis. The hosts have lost just one of their latest five matches – at home they have last lost to Legia, a strong team, currently in 2nd place, 0-2 but had their chances and even recorded more dangerous attacks.. A draw would not have been an unjustified result and the final score is misleading. The visitors have an impressive record in their recent games but have become too hot on the betting market! They have won many matches with some luck this spring..

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

北京时间周六晚上,拉多姆将在MOSiR球场迎来与波兰Ekstraklasa的第31轮比赛。按照欧洲的标准,这个联赛处于中等水平。球迷和我们的投注者不能指望很好的娱乐在这里,但我相信,我们有一个有利可图的赌博机会在这里!目前,客队共有18家俱乐部,排在联赛第16位。我的大多数粉丝现在可能都知道,我从来不会让排名以任何方式欺骗我。目前他们的账户上有43分,但就预期积分(xPTS)而言,他们本赛季到目前为止还算幸运。事实上,他们的xPTS仅为39.12。虽然攻入33球,但期望进球数(xG)只有31.13球。33个进球并不是一个大数字,比如目前排名第15位的科罗纳·凯尔切,他的进球更多,准确地说是34个。客队的进攻缺乏创造性和个人技巧。他们的攻击通常是可以预测的,这使得对手很容易成功地防守。然而,东道主的进攻也不是很强大,他们迄今为止总共打进29球,但他们的进球数是30.91。在今天的预期阵容中,我看到两支球队在这个领域同样出色。从纯粹的水平上看,客队在这里稍强一些。

到目前为止,客队比拉多姆少丢了5个球,虽然他们在这方面的优势比被丢的球少,但这反映出他们的优势仍然存在。Piast的防守结构略好,中场防守比东道主更积极。我预计这将是一场防守和战术之战,我认为这场比赛的得分比博彩市场上的预测还要低。总进球数少于2.5个的概率为71%。最大的,往往有些敏锐的博彩公司认为这场比赛中没有真正的热门,两支球队的赔率都在2.65-2.75之间。然而,根据我的深入分析,东道主有42%的机会让皮亚斯特空手而归。然而,我们将采取+0.5障碍选项,有很高的获胜机会。拉多米亚克没有联盟中最好的球迷,但主场优势仍然很大,必须给予足够的重视。东道主在最近的五场比赛中只输了一场——在主场,他们最近输给了莱吉亚,一支目前排名第二的强队,0-2,但他们有机会,甚至有更多的危险进攻。平局不会是一个不公平的结果,最终的比分是误导性的。客队在最近的比赛中有令人印象深刻的记录,但在博彩市场上已经变得太热了!今年春天他们运气不错,赢了许多比赛。

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