Empoli vs Bologna

Empoli host Bologna for this Italian Serie A league 33 battle at Stadio Carlo Castellani early Friday morning Beijing time. This is the fourth-best league in on the planet and football fans and us football bettors can expect a somewhat good-level and entertaining encounter here. The stakes for Empoli are massive here. They currently occupy the 15th place in this league with a total of 20 clubs. They are in an intense struggle with Lecce, Verona, Spezia and tehcnically also Cremonese to avoid relegation. Empoli have grabbed 32 points so far, Lecce have taken 31 points so far, both Spezia and Verona have 27 points in their pocket. Cremonese have 21 points to their account. All these opponents listed above have played 33 games - this means that they still have five matches left. Even a dra would be a satisfactory result here and I believe that Empoli will be pretty defensive here, even in front of loud and demanding fans. The goal expectancy here is lower than the bookies estimate. Indeed, based on my sophisticated, in-depth analysis the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scores is 63%. Bologna have nothing more left to play for this season and some of their players have looked quite lazy on the pitch recently. They currently occupy the 9th place with 45 points to their account. However, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved just 46.25 points. However, Empoli, too, have been a little been lucky in terms of expected points but only marginally is their number number of xPTS is 30.98. Empoli have netted the ball 41 times in this league so far this season. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is just 35.21. In a normal. Say mid-season game they would have a pretty clear edge in this area of the game. However, as they have nothing at stake here I would not be surprised to see their coach – who is in my oponion often a bit overrated – to do somw squad rotation here. Yoiung players need chances to prove their skills on the pitch and this much would be a perfect opportunity for that. Bologna's defense is much leakier than the number of goal conceded - 40 – would reflect! Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 49.11.

The biggest, often somewhat sharp bookies think that there is not actual favorite in this game, offering both teams odds of about 2.75 to win. However, bases on my in-deoth analysis to motivated host have a 41% chance of sending Bologna home empty-handed. They have not won any of their latest matches and were lucky to get a point from Juventus in their most recent game. Bologna played above their normal level in this match but Juventus were the better team on the pitch and recorded much more in xG. Empoli have lost three games in a row but the bookies have over-reacted to these losses. They have to improve now!