Brest vs Nantes

Brest welcome Nantes for this French Ligue 1 round 33 battle at Stade Francis-Le Blé early Thursday morning Beijing time. This is the fifth-best league in the world. Football enthusiasts and us football fans can expect a good-level game. However, my fans' and my goal is to make a profit and I am convinced that we have yet another lucrative betting opportunity here. We have done very well betting on this league long-term! The goal expectancy here is lower than the betting market estimates. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 66%. The stakes are sky-high in this game and I expect both teams to be defensive – perhaps even cautious here. Especially in the first half I expect both teams to avoid big (offensive) risks. Four teams are relegated from this league to National for next season from. A total of 20 clubs play in Ligue 1. Nantes and Brest have the same number of points to their account – 32 to be precise. However, I see the visitors as clearly the stronger team with today's expected lineups. Brest will be missing Fadiga and Remy. Nantes, on the other hand, will be without Chirivell and Delort. The probability of a draw is somewhat high – 33%. This would be enough for my fans and me to bring us a winner with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap on Nantes. The biggest, often somewhat sharp bookies that offer the biggest betting limits see the hosts as solid favorites here offering them odds of around 2.40 to take all three points. I have to  disagree with the bookies and see the visitors as slim favorites with today’s expected lineups.

In terms of expected points (xPTS) Nantes would have deserved 39.12 points. They have netted the ball 35 times but have been unlucky in terms of expected goals (xG). Indeed, Nantes' xG is 42.12. Brest, too, have scored 35 goals in this league so far Nantes still have much more skill in offense. Let's not forget that they even played in UEFA Europa League Play Offs and did perform pretty well. In the end Juventus were, however, too strong and beat Nantes. Brest can only dream of playing in UEFA's competitions - this will most probably never happen! The visitors season has been huge disappointment but the bookies seem to have lost faith in them almost completely now and we have to take advantage of this! I expect them to prove their class at critical moments of the season. Nantes have a clear edge in terms of defensive quality as well. They have allowed 46 goals. The hosts, on the other hand, have conceded 48 goals but their number of expected goals allowed is 54.35. Furthermore, Brest have not been able to beat Nantes in any of the latest seven games between the two teams. The teams last met in October 2022 4-1 at home. Nantes are clearly the bigger team in terms of players total market value according to a well-known and well-respected German website, Transfermarkt.com. Their squad has a total market value of some 124 million euros. This is too low – I would set the number at 138 three of their players are undervalued. Brest's players have a total market value of approximately 69 million - which is a little too high in my opinion. Result-wise Brest have been a little better recently but the visitors have had some bad luck in quite a few games in March and April.