Shrewsbury Town VS Bristol Rovers

Shrewsbury host Bristol Rovers at Greenhous Meadow for this English League One round 38 battle early Wednesday morning Beijing time. However, in reality both teams have played 44 matches. This league is of surprisingly good level and there are some individually skilled players who could play even at higher levels of football. The League One is definitely the best third-level in the world. Neither team have a chance to be promoted - but are also safe from relegation. Both teams can, of course, still climb up the standings. The hosts currently occupy the 13th place in the standings with 56 points to their account. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is just 49.12. They have netted the ball 51 times in this league so far this season. However, their number of expected goals(xG) is just 46.12. They have conceded 59 goals but their number of expected goals allowed(xGA) is much higher - 65.41 to be precise. The hosts have been in abysmal form lately and seem to be very low in confidence. Some of their players have looked a bit lazy – perhaps even unmotivated on the pitch in some games recently. According to my sources they also do not have a good team spirit..

Shrewsbury have not won any of their most recent eight games! Moreover, they have now lost three games in a row and have suffered seven defeats in their latest eight games! They have scored just one goal in their most recent three games and their offense seems to lack everything needed to win games. In their most recent game they suffered a humiliating 0-3 loss at home against Sheffield Wednesday. The visitors dominated the events on the pitch with 68% ball possession. They also recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal, shots off goal, attacks and dangerous attacks - 60-38. Sheffield Wednesday also generated much more in xG. Before this they were even worse and lost to Bolton 0-1 without recording a single shot on goal! Bolton recorded six. The hosts had 66% ball possession and created many more scoring attempts, total passes, completed passes,attacks and especially dangerous attacks – 80.28. The poor visitors generated just 0.32 in xG – Bolton's number was 1.65. The biggest, often pretty sharp bookmakers with the largest betting limits see the totally out-of-form hosts as solid favorites here – offering them odds of around 2.50 to take all three points. I cannot agree with these bookies – with today's expected lineups I see Bristol only as moderate favorites here! The obvious choice is Bristol City +0.5 goals handicap.

The home advantage is there but the fans have been very disappointed with their team lately and I do not expect the atmosphere to be very good in this game.. According to a well-known and well-respected German website, Transfermarkt.com Bristol Rovers' squad has a total market value of 8.35 million euros. This is, in my view, a little too low. The fair market value would be 10-11 million. Shrewsbury players, on the other hand, are valued a total of 6.85million which is still too high in my view. I would set the number at 5-5.30 million. Three players are overr-valued. Bristol Rovers have also not been in good form lately. Even so, they have performed much better on the pitch than the hosts recently. They have won twice and taken two draws in their latest eight matches. In their most recent match they faced Peterborough away from home and it was a goalless draw. The hosts, currently in 7th place with 74 points, were extremely motivated in this game. They were also big favorites – priced around 1.45 to win by the bookies. Yes, Peterborough were the better team on the pitch and recorded more in xG but I was impressed by the way Bristol Rovers fought and defended as a team!

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周三凌晨，英格兰甲级联赛第38轮比赛将在温室草地球场进行，什鲁斯伯里主场迎战布里斯托流浪者。然而，实际上两支球队都打了44场比赛。这个联赛的水平令人惊讶地好，有一些个人技术娴熟的球员甚至可以踢更高水平的足球。英甲联赛绝对是世界上最好的三级联赛。这两支球队都没有升班马的机会，但也不会降级。当然，两支球队仍然可以在积分榜上不断攀升。东道主目前以56分排名第13位。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)仅为49.12。本赛季到目前为止，他们在联赛中取得了51次进球。然而，他们的预期进球数(xG)仅为46.12。他们丢了59个球，但他们的预期失球(xGA)要高得多，准确地说是65.41个。东道主最近的状态很糟糕，似乎信心很低。在最近的一些比赛中，他们的一些球员看起来有点懒——甚至可能在球场上没有动力。据我所知，他们也没有良好的团队精神。

什鲁斯伯里最近的八场比赛一场都没赢!此外，他们现在已经连输了三场比赛，并且在最近的八场比赛中遭遇了七场失利!他们在最近的三场比赛中只进了一个球，他们的进攻似乎缺乏赢得比赛所需的一切。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场0-3惨败给谢菲尔德星期三。客队以68%的控球率在场上占据主导地位。他们也记录了更多的射门次数，射门次数，射门次数，进攻次数和危险进攻次数——60胜38负。谢菲尔德星期三也产生了更多的xG。在此之前，他们更糟糕，0-1输给博尔顿，一球未进!博尔顿录得6张。主队拥有66%的控球率，创造了更多的得分机会、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数，尤其是危险进攻次数——80.28。可怜的客队在xG的得分只有0.32，而博尔顿则是1.65。最大的，通常是相当敏锐的博彩公司，拥有最大的投注限额，认为完全处于状态的东道主在这里是可靠的热门-为他们提供2.50左右的赔率，以获得所有三分。我不同意这些博彩公司的看法——根据今天的预期阵容，我认为布里斯托尔在这里只是中等的热门!显而易见的选择是布里斯托尔城+0.5个进球劣势。

主场优势是有的，但是球迷最近对他们的球队非常失望，我不认为这场比赛的气氛会很好。据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com报道，布里斯托尔流浪者队的总市值为835万欧元。在我看来，这有点太低了。公平市场价值是1000万到1100万。另一方面，什鲁斯伯里球员的总身价为685万英镑，在我看来还是太高了。我把这个数字定在500万到530万之间。有三个参与者被高估了。布里斯托流浪者最近的状态也不太好。即便如此，他们最近在球场上的表现也比东道主好得多。在最近的8场比赛中，他们取得了2胜2平的成绩。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们客场对阵彼得伯勒，平局为0比0。东道主目前以74分排名第7，他们在这场比赛中表现得非常积极。它们也是大热门——博彩公司开出的赔率约为1.45美元。是的，彼得堡在球场上表现得更好，在xG上的记录也更多，但我对布里斯托尔流浪者的战斗和防守方式印象深刻!