Club Leon vs Tigres

Leon welcome Tigres for this Mexican Liga MX Clausura round 17 battle at Estadio León- This league is of pretty good level by global standards and we can expect a high-level or entertaining game here even by Primera Division standards. However, I do believe we have yet another interesting betting opportunity here. My fans and I have done very well betting on this league! According to a well-known and well-respected German website, Transfermarkt.com Leon squad has a total market value of 48 million euros. This is, in my view, a little too high Tigres players, on the other hand, are valued a total of 66.50 million which is still too low in my view. I would set the number at 69-70 million. Three players are under-valued. Furthermore, let's not forget that last season (Apertura) the visitors finished in 5th place with 30 points to their account. Leon ended up in 10th place with 22 points. The hosts currently occupy the 6th place in the standings with 27 points in their pocket. They have netted the ball 20 times in this league so far this season. However, their number of expected goals(xG) is 18.11. They have conceded 13 goals but their number of expected goals allowed(xGA) is much higher – 17.43. Leon have been in very poor form lately and seem to be low in confidence. Indeed, they have not won any of their most recent five games! Moreover, they have lost three of these five matches. In their most recent match they suffered a defeat against today's opponent away from home in a CONCACAF Champions League Semi-final first leg clash. 2-1 was the final score. The hosts had only 49% ball possession but did record many more goal attempts (21-13) and shots on goal v - 13-11.

Before this they faced Tijuana away from home and no goals were scored in this pretty low-level game. The hosts had 61% ball possession but Leon did record more goal attempts and shots on goal. The expected goals number were 1.12 – 1.10. Furthermore, on the 16th of April they lost to Guadalajara Chivas 0-2 after a lame performance. They were solid favorites – priced around 2.40 to win by the bookies in this match – but the visiots fully deserved to win after recording 1.89 in xG - Leon generated just 1.13. The visitors have had a slightly disappointing season and are currently in 7th place in this league with a total of 18 clubs. They have grabbed 25 points but their number of xPTS bigger – 27.12. They have netted the ball just 20 times. Their defense has been pretty in most games – it has a good structure and silly mistakes are few but in away games they are sometimes a little too cautious – they should press the opponent's defense more aggressively.. The biggest, often pretty sharp bookmakers with the largest betting limits see the hosts as clear favorites here – offering them odds of around 1.90 to take all three points. I cannot agree – with today's expected lineups I see the Leon only as moderate favorites here. The pbvious choice is Tigres +0.5 goals handicap. The home advantage is there but Leon have failed to win their most recent two games and did not even score in either game. On the 21th of April Tigres defeated Pueblo and fully deserved the win. Indeed, the hosts had 56% ball possession and recorded many more scoring attempts (20-12), shots on goal (6-2) total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks – 49-34. Tigress generated 2.97 in xG – Puabla managed just 0.43. The visitors have lost just one of their most recent games and have allowed just one goal in their last four games.