FC Macarthur VS Wellington Phoenix

Macarthur host Wellington Phoenix for this Australian A-League round 26 battle at Campbelltown Stadium in Sydney Saturday afternoon Beijing time. This is, in fact, the final round of play before the Play Offs start. My fans and I have done super-well betting on this league that is not of very high level by international standards – especially taking into account that Australia have succeeded pretty well in international tournaments during the past 15 or so years. The Aussies even made it to the Play Offs in the World Cup last in Qatar last year but lost to eventual champions, Argentina. Football has increased in popularity in Australia in recent and some teams have a quite enthusiastic crowds and a good atmosphere at the stadium nowadays. However, this is will not exactly to be the case here.. Last season the hosts did, after all, finish in 7th place – with some luck though. The season has been a gigantic disappointment for Macarthur and their fans. The supporters have, understandably, been very unhappy with their teams' performances - especially in March and April. Most importantly, we have yet another very promising betting opportunity here!The hosts currently occupy the last place in the standings in this league with a total of 12 clubs with just 26 points in the pocket. Moreover, they have even been lucky in terms of expected points (xPTS) so far this season!

Indeed, the hosts would have deserved just 23.12 points. Furthermore, they have netted the ball 31 times so far but their number of expected goals (xG) is just 28.11. Indeed, their offense is not totally useless but still lacks individual skill and structure. Wellington definitely have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game! The visitors have, however, conceded surprisingly many goals so far – 45 to be precise - but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is lower – 40.12. They would need to have a better structure, make less silly mistakes and defend better as team to succeed in the Play Offs.. The hosts have allowed two more goals. Their number of xGA is 49.01. Furthermore, defense has been very vulnerable – sometimes even hilariously disorganized recently! Indeed they have conceded eight goals in their latest four games. Their defense lacks even basic structure, individual skill and the defenders make too many stupid mistakes for this level. The midfielders should more actively take part in in defending.. Perhaps they will improve next season but I do not see a positive change for this match

The top-6 teams qualify the Play Offs. Wellington Phoenix are currently in the 6th place and have taken 32 points. If teams finish on equal points at the end of the season, score difference will be the tie-breaker. There are three teams with 29 points behind them. This means that they only need a point to secure a place in the Play Offs. However, I do not believe they will try to secure a draw, playing passive, defensive football against a poor opponent. This would be risky in a way - and even stupid - one could say.. However, of course of the score is level very late into the second half Wellington will not take big offensive risks. Wellington, a team from New Zealand, were – in all honesty – not good in their most recent match. In fact, they have not won a game for a while but it is high time for that here! They lost to WS Wanderers 0-4 away from home as clear underdogs according to the bookies, priced around 4.00 to win. However, the score is still very misleading! The ball possession was 53-47% and the visitors did have their chances. They recorded 13 goal attempts and three shots on target. Furthermore, they also created more attacks (107-98) and dangerous attacks - 57-26. WS Wanderers did generate more in xG. Before this they were unlucky not to win against Brisbane Roar at home. They had 58% ball possession and recorded a whopping 24 goal attempts. They also had many more shots on target (9-4), total passes, completed passes and dangerous attacks – 64-42. Moreover, they generated almost 4.00 in xG!

Macarthur, on the other hand, have been very bad recently! They have lost four of their latest six games. They have lost twice in a row now – both 1-2 and away from home. Both pretty lowly opponents - Melbourne, currently in 10th place and Newcastle (8th) fully deserved to win. They generated much more than lame Macarthur in xG. Melbourne's number was almost 3.00 and Newcastle's over 1.50. I do not trust the hosts' manager Sterjovski to be able to fully motivate his players here.. Some players have not looked 100% motivated in recent games. Yes, they will surely not want to be humiliated in front of their fans but the massively motivated and strong opponent should still be too much to handle for the hosts. Wellington have a 59% chance to win this battle with the expected lineups and I expect the odds to drop from 1.90-1.95 widely available on the betting market at the time of writing this analysis very early on Saturday Beijing time. The hosts will be without Arzani, Davila and De Silva. I would also not be surprised to see their coach to do some squad rotation here – offering young players a chance to shine.. Wellington will be missing B. Old.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周六下午，澳大利亚甲级联赛第26轮比赛将在悉尼坎贝尔敦体育场举行，麦克阿瑟主场迎战惠灵顿凤凰队。事实上，这是附加赛开始前的最后一轮比赛。我和我的球迷对这个联赛的投注都做得非常好，但按照国际标准来看，这个联赛的水平并不高——尤其是考虑到澳大利亚在过去15年左右的国际锦标赛中取得了相当大的成功。去年在卡塔尔举行的世界杯上，澳大利亚人甚至进入了附加赛，但输给了最终的冠军阿根廷队。近年来，足球在澳大利亚越来越受欢迎，一些球队在体育场里有相当热情的人群和良好的气氛。然而，这里的情况并非完全如此。毕竟，上个赛季，东道主以第七名的成绩结束了比赛——尽管运气不错。这个赛季对麦克阿瑟和他们的球迷来说是一个巨大的失望。可以理解的是，球迷对球队的表现非常不满，尤其是在3月和4月。最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有前途的赌博机会!东道主目前在联赛积分榜上排名垫底，总共有12家俱乐部，积分只有26分。此外，本赛季到目前为止，他们甚至在预期积分(xPTS)方面都很幸运!

事实上，东道主本应得到23.12分。此外，迄今为止，他们有31次进球，但他们的预期进球(xG)只有28.11个。的确，他们的进攻并不是完全无用，但仍然缺乏个人技术和结构。惠灵顿在比赛的各个方面都比东道主有优势!然而，客队至今丢了很多球，确切地说是45个，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)更低，为40.12。他们需要更好的结构，少犯愚蠢的错误，更好的防守，才能在附加赛中取得成功。东道主又丢了两个球。它们的xGA数是49.01。此外，防守已经非常脆弱-有时甚至滑稽的混乱最近!事实上，他们在最近的四场比赛中丢了8个球。他们的防守甚至缺乏基本的结构，个人技术，防守者在这个级别上犯了太多愚蠢的错误。中场应该更积极地参与防守。也许下赛季他们会有所进步，但我不认为这场比赛会有什么积极的变化

前6名的队伍将进入附加赛。惠灵顿菲尼克斯目前排在第6位，拿到了32分。如果两队在赛季结束时得分相等，则得分差将成为决胜局。有三支球队落后他们29分。这意味着他们只需要一分就能进入附加赛。然而，我不相信他们会试图确保平局，在面对一个糟糕的对手时踢被动的防守足球。这在某种程度上是有风险的，甚至可以说是愚蠢的。不过，当然比分很晚才扳平，进入下半场惠灵顿不会冒太大的进攻风险。说实话，来自新西兰的惠灵顿队在最近的比赛中表现不佳。事实上，他们已经有一段时间没有赢球了，但现在是时候赢球了!他们客场0-4输给了WS流浪者队，根据博彩公司的预测，他们明显处于劣势，胜率在4.00左右。然而，这个分数还是很误导人的!控球率是53比47%，客队确实有机会。他们记录了13次射门和3次射正。此外，他们还创造了更多的进攻(107比98)和危险进攻(57比26)。wswanderers在xG中确实产生了更多。在此之前，他们很不幸没能在主场战胜布里斯班咆哮队。他们有58%的控球率，并记录了惊人的24次射门。他们也有更多的射门(9胜4负)、传球总数、完成传球和危险进攻——64胜42负。此外，他们在《xG!》

另一方面，麦克阿瑟最近的表现非常糟糕!他们最近6场比赛输了4场。他们已经连输两场了，都是客场1-2负。这两个都是实力较弱的对手——目前排名第10的墨尔本和排名第8的纽卡斯尔完全配得上胜利。他们比蹩脚的麦克阿瑟在xG产生了更多。墨尔本的数字接近3.00，纽卡斯尔超过1.50。我不相信东道主教练斯特约夫斯基能在这里充分激励他的球员。在最近的比赛中，有些球员看起来并没有百分之百的积极性。是的，他们肯定不想在球迷面前丢脸，但对于东道主来说，这个充满动力和强大的对手仍然是难以对付的。惠灵顿有59%的机会赢得这场预期的阵容，我预计赔率将从1.90-1.95下降，在北京时间周六早些时候写这篇分析的时候，投注市场上普遍存在赔率。东道主将失去阿尔扎尼、达维拉和德席尔瓦。我也不会惊讶于看到他们的教练在这里做一些阵容轮换——给年轻球员一个发光的机会。惠灵顿将会失去B. Old。