In my opinion Espanyol have really good chances to avoid big loss in today’s match up. +1.5 AH on away side looks like very solid option to play. I see 4 reasons for that.

1. Espanyol loves to play against Villarreal. Espanyol didn’t lost in 8 of last 12 matches against Villarreal in La Liga. They didn’t lost in 6 of 8 last matches between both teams at this stadium. Espanyol best scorer Joselu (12 goals in current season) recorded 3 goals and 3 asssits in last 5 matches against Villarreal.

2. Espanyol have huge motivation to avoid loss in this game. They are in relegation zone, 3 points behind safe place and only 8 rounds left. Their position is extremely undeserved because according to the expected goals scored/conceded model they should be 8 spots above their current place.

3. Villarreal have serious squad problems before this game. They are without key defender Albiol, important defender Kiko, important midfielder Coquelin, second-best scorer Moreno and best scorer Morales. That should have very bad impact on their performance today.

4. I don’t see so big dig difference between both teams in terms of current form. Villarreal lost last two matches in a row so for sure their confidence is not big. They won only 3 of last 8 matches, but in two of them they had expected goals scored number lower than their opponents. Espanyol played 3 matches with new coach Luis Garcia. In last round finally stopped streak of losses. In those 3 matches they even deserved for more – according to the expected goals scored model they should score 4 goals, but they scored only 2.

在我看来，西班牙人队在今天的比赛中很有机会避免惨败。客场 +1.5 AH 看起来是非常可靠的选择。我认为是以下 4 个原因。

1. 西班牙人喜欢和比利亚雷亚尔比赛。西班牙人在过去 12 场西甲对阵比利亚雷亚尔的比赛中有 8 场没有输球。两支球队在这个体育场的最后 8 场比赛中，他们有 6 场没有输球。西班牙人队最佳射手何塞卢（本赛季12球）在最近5场对阵比利亚雷亚尔的比赛中打入3球并助攻3次。

2. 西班牙人本场比赛有很大的避免输球的动力。他们处于降级区，落后安全区3分，只剩下8轮了。他们的位置是非常不值得的，因为根据预期的进球/失球模型，他们应该比他们现在的位置高出 8 个位置。

3. 比利亚雷亚尔本场比赛前阵容问题严重。他们缺少主力后卫阿尔比奥尔、主力后卫基科、主力中场科奎林、第二射手莫雷诺和最佳射手莫拉莱斯。这应该会对他们今天的表现产生非常糟糕的影响。

4. 就目前的状态而言，我认为两支球队之间的差距不大。比利亚雷亚尔连续输掉了最后两场比赛，所以他们的信心肯定不大。他们在过去的 8 场比赛中只赢了 3 场，但在其中两场比赛中，他们的预期进球数低于对手。西班牙人与新教练路易斯加西亚打了3场比赛。上轮终于止住了连败。在这 3 场比赛中，他们甚至应该得到更多——根据预期进球模型，他们应该进 4 个球，但他们只进了 2 个。