Philadelphia Union VS Los Angeles FC

Philadelphia Union and Los Angeles FC lock horns in this CONCACAF Champions League semi-final first leg battle at Subaru Park Thursday morning Beijing time. Both teams play in the MLS - there are teams from the US and Canada in this league. Most teams play aggressive, often pretty entertaining football and we can expect good entertainment here as well. However, most importantly, I have spotted yet another lucrative betting opportunity! Los Angeles play in the Western Conference and have started the season very well. They have grabbed 18 times and are just one point behind the current leaders, St. Louis. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is even higher – 20.03 to be precise. They have netted the ball 16 times in this league so far this season. Their number of expected goals (xG) is 19.02. Yes, they are the better team here in all areas of the game! They are also a bigger team than the hosts in terms of players total market value according to a well-respected and famous German website, Transfermarkt.com. Their squad has a market value of around 55 million euros. This is, however, too low in my opinion. I would set the fair value at 61-63 million. At least three players are undervalued! Philadelphia's players are valued at around 49.5 million – this is too high! 4-5 players are overvalued – two even pretty heavily. Los Angeles have been in amazingly good form recently. Indeed, they have won four of their latest games – three of these matches 3-0! Moreover, they have lost just once in their most recent 14 games!

Los Angeles have not lost a single game this season. Their defense has been very good – they have allowed just six goals. It has a good structure and stupid mistakes are rare. Untypically for MLS even the strikers are often active in defending or pressing the opponent – if needed to protect the lead. The biggest, usually somewhat smart bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers clearly underestimate Los Angeles here! They see the hosts as solid favorites – offering them odds of around 2.35-2.40to win. With today's expected lineups I cannot agree with this at all. However, despite being the better team in and in better form,taking the substantial home advantage into account I see the visitors only as narrow favorites! We will take the +0.5 goals handicap – even a draw would be enough for my fans and me to win! The chances of making a profit are high! Philadelphia played a good last season and this probably in part explains the overvaluation here. However, they have disappointed me this season and I have lowered their power rating which reflects the teams' pure class significantly from the in-depth preseason analysis! They are in 6th place in the Eastern Conference place with just 11 points and a mediocre score difference of 14:13. they will surely improve as the season progresses but I believe they need time to do this..They did beat a pretty lowly team Toronto 4-2 in their most recent game 4-2 at home but their defense looked surprisingly leaky. Philadelphia were priced around 1.65 by the bookies to win in this game. Even so, they allowed the visitors 10 scoring attempts - Toronto also had 60% ball possession! Before this win they won just one of the seven matches. They seem to lack confidence at the moment..Moreover, they have allowed six goals in their latest three games and I believe the visitors will take advantage of their defense problems here.. They might even score 2+ goals!

北京时间周四上午，费城联盟和洛杉矶FC在斯巴鲁公园进行的本场中北美及加勒比地区冠军联赛半决赛首回合较量。两支球队都参加美国职业足球大联盟——这个联盟中有来自美国和加拿大的球队。大多数球队都踢得很有侵略性，通常很有趣，我们也可以期待这里有很好的娱乐性。然而，最重要的是，我发现了另一个有利可图的投注机会！洛杉矶在西部联赛中发挥出色，本赛季开局非常好。他们已经抢下了18次，只落后目前的领头羊圣路易斯一分。他们的预期分数 (xPTS) 甚至更高——准确地说是 20.03。本赛季到目前为止，他们已经在联赛中取得了 16 次进球。他们的预期进球数 (xG) 为 19.02。是的，他们在比赛的各个方面都是更好的球队！根据一位备受尊敬的著名德国人的说法，就球员的总市场价值而言，他们也是一支比主队更有价值的球队网站 Transfermarkt.com。他们的球队市值约为5500万欧元。但是，我认为这太低了。我会把公允价值定在61-63百万。至少三名球员被低估！费城球员的身价约为 4950 万——这太高了！ 4-5 名球员被高估了——其中两人甚至被高估了。洛杉矶最近的状态非常好。事实上，他们最近赢得了四场比赛——其中三场比赛都是 3-0！而且，他们在最近的14场比赛中只输过一次！

洛杉矶本赛季没有输过一场比赛。他们的防守非常好——他们只丢了六个球。它的结构很好，愚蠢的错误很少见。与美国职业足球大联盟不同寻常的是，即使是前锋也经常积极防守或压迫对手——如果需要保护领先优势的话。接受客户最大赌注的最大、通常有点聪明的公司显然低估了洛杉矶！他们将主人视为可靠的热门 - 为他们提供大约 2.35-2.40 的获胜几率。对于今天的预期阵容，我完全不能同意这一点。然而，尽管是更好的球队并且状态更好，但考虑到巨大的主场优势，我认为客队只是狭隘的热门！我们将采用 +0.5 个进球的让分盘——即使是平局也足以让我和我的球迷获胜！获利的机会很大！费城上赛季打得很好，这可能部分解释了这里的高估。然而，他们这个赛季让我很失望，我从深入的季前赛分析中显着降低了反映球队纯级别的实力评级！他们仅积11分，14:13的平庸分差排在东部第6位。随着赛季的进行，他们肯定会有所改善，但我相信他们需要时间来做到这一点。他们在最近的主场 4-2 比赛中确实以 4-2 击败了一支相当低的球队多伦多，但他们的防守看起来出奇地漏水。博彩公司为费城赢得这场比赛的赔率约为 1.65。尽管如此，他们还是让客队有10次得分机会——多伦多也有60%的控球率！在这场胜利之前，他们只赢了七场比赛中的一场。他们现在似乎缺乏信心..而且，他们在最近的三场比赛中已经丢了六个球，我相信客队会利用这里的防守问题..他们甚至可能会进2球以上！