Tombense vs Brazil

Tombense challenge Palmeiras for this Copa do Brasil Brazilian Cup) 1/16-final 2nd leg clash at Estádio Parque do Sabiá Thursday morning Beijing time. There is, of course, no doubt at all about the fact that Palmeiras are big favorites here. They have a 58 % chance to win this game. They are the reigning Serie A champions. Indeed, they grabbed a total of 81 points last season and had a good goal difference of 66:27. Even so, in terms of expected goals (xG) they were lucky and would have deserved just 61.12 goals. Moreover, their number of expected points (xPTS) was just 76.22. I believe the last Serie A season is one of the factors that explain the hosts being respected too much on the betting market in this game. They have started the Serie A season with a 2-1 win at home as very big favorites over a small team Ciuba. They were priced around 1.40 to take all three points in this match. They did deserve to win but did not fully convince me. I deed, they had only 52% ball possession and the visitors were able to create surprisingly many scoring chances – 11 to be precise. In their most recent game they were also not convincing. It was a Serie A game away from home against Vasco. Palmeiras were solid favorites in this clash – priced around 2.30 to win by the bookies. They had 65% ball possession but only generated 0.69 in xG. Vasco would have deserved to win as their xG was 1.96!

My fans and I need here is for Tombense, a decent team from Serie B, to avoid losing by more than a margin of one goal.The probability for this is 69%. I expect them to be somewhat defensive here and trust their often under-rated coach to get his men his men for this huge chalLenge. see the game as more low-scoring than the betting market does - the probability for under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 49%. Palmeiras won the first leg 4-2 but Tombense made them work hard. Palmeiras had just 56% ball possession. Tombense also recorded 11 goal attempts and seve shots on goal. Good numbers taking into account the hosts were priced around 1.13-1.15 to win! It was clear during and after the match that the bookies had underestimated Tombense! Before this defeat they had lost just one of their latest 12 matches. Tombense crushed Ituano at home in their most recent game 3-0 at home after a convincing performance. Before this they were unlucky to lose to Criciuma as big underdogs 0-2 away from home despite 64% ball possession and recording many more total passes, completed passes, atattacks (106-49) and dangerous attacks (53-36). The hosts did create more scoring attempts and shots on goal though. Palmeiras do not even have to win this game to qualify so I do not expect them to be 100% motivated – at least they probably will not risk injuries. Squad rotation would not surprise me at all..