Swindon VS Stevenage

Swindon welcome Stevenage for this English League Two round 26 clash at Rodney Parade early Wednesday morning Beijing time. However, in reality both teams have played 43 games in the League Two this season. The season is soon coming to an end – next month to be precise. My fans and I have done very well betting on this league and I am positive we have an excellent betting opportunity here - once again. The stakes for the visitors are high and the motivation factor has now become one of the key elements in profitable betting in many late season games. For some things there is nothing left to play for. This is the case with Swindon here. 46 rounds will be played in the regular season. After that the teams who finish 3th-6th play in the Promotion Play Offs. Stevenage currently occupy the 3rd place in this league with a total of 24 teams and have a fine number of points – 76! However, they have been a little unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). They would have deserved just 78.03 points. Swindon, on the other hand, are in 10th place and can just enjoy the last three games. Yes, they will surely do their best in front of home fans but with the gigantic edge in motivation the visitors are very clear favorites - with a 60% chance of winning here. The odds have been slashed from the starting odds of around 2.40 but the odds of around 1.90 offered by the biggest bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers – at the time of writing this analysis. I expect the odds to drop even more before the kickoff! I would not be surprised to see the hosts' manager do some squad rotation here – offering a chance for some young, promising guys an opportunity to prove their skills!

The visitors have an excellent manager, Scottish S. Evans, and also have a great team spirit according to my sources. However, most importantly, they do after all have an edge in all areas of the game. They have netted the ball 57 goals and have a fine offensive structure and many skilled offensive players for this level. Their number of expected goals (xG) is 58.09. Swindon,too, have had a pretty good offense this season netting the ball 58 times. Their number of xG is 53.98. In terms of defensive quality the difference is, however, substantial. The visitors defense has no clear weaknesses and they have conceded 39 goals. The hosts defense has looked pretty good lately in terms of goals allowed but, in reality, does not have the best structure and I expect a very good team like Stevenga to take advantage of the hosts defenders probably making silly mistakes – once again. Stebenage faced a dangerous team, Mansfield who are currently in 8th place, in their most recent game and lost 0-1 away from home. Some of Stevenage's players looked a little nervous on the pitch and the team as a whole were not at their best. It was a balanced, pretty defensive clash where Stevenage had 55% ball possession but the visitors recorded more shots on goal. The xG numbers were 0.98-0.91. Mansfield, who were narrow favorites in this game on the betting market, played a very good game and Stevenage can surely improve.. Before this they took two wins and the recent loss does not really worry me ahead of this game. Swindon cruised to a 5-1 away win last Saturday over a totally out-of-form AFC Wimbledon. Yes, they did deserve to win but the final score is misleading! The visitors generated 2.49 in xG – the hosts' number was 1.34. Before this Swindon were lucky to beat Bradford City 1-0 at home despite recording just 0.62 in xG – Brodford created 1.74. They are - once again  - respected way too much by the bookies here!