Santa Clara VS GD Chaves

Santa Clara welcome Chaves for this Liga Portugal round 13 clash at Estádio de São Miguel in Ponta Delgada early Monday morning Beijing time. This league is of pretty level as a whole by European standards. According to the biggest, often pretty sharp bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers the hosts are only very narrow favorites. However, based on my sophisticated in-depth analysis they should be more clear favorites. They have a 46% chance of taking a win.The draw would most certainly not surprise anyone here. The probability of a draw is 33.%. The hosts are missing Rocha, Allano, Domingos and Quintilla. Chaves will be without Edu, Euller, Jesus and Monroy. As my fans probably know I will never not let the standings fool us!I want to mention that last season Santa Clara were pretty strong but this session has, of course, been a catastrophe! They have have just eight points to their account but in terms of expected points (xPTS) the hosts would have deserved 27.01 points. The visitors xPTS is just 29.12. The teams who finish in 17-18th place are relegated to LigaPortugal2 for next season. This is something Santa Clara want to avios and still have a chance to do. However, it is high time for them to start taking points. Their fans have, of course, been very frustrated by the hosts' performance and still offer a big boost for Santa Clara. Chaves are in 11th place and be satisfied with their season. They have nothing to play for left this season and I expect their coach to do some rotating here.. Many of their players have performed over their normal lavel this season and I expect them to drop down in the standings during the last six rounds of play. 

The visitors are in 15th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class.The bookies have overvalued them on many games this season and the massively undeserved win over Benfica 1-0 at home in their most recent game has added to this. Yes, Benfica are the best team in this league. They were very unlucky not to win. They had 65% ball possession and recorded many more shots on goal, scoring attempts, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks 113-29! Santa Clara suffered yet another loss in their most recent game against Porto, the second-best team in this league. The hosts were priced around 1.12 to win and did deserve to win but Santa Clara fought well. They recorded eight scoring attempts - Porto had 12 though. According to a very well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Chaves players have a total market value of just around 12 million euros. In my opinion this is still a little too low - despite being a low number by Liga Portugal standards. I would set the number at around 13 million.. . Santa Clara are, however, a much bigger club and their players have a total market value of approximately 24 million. The potential is there – let's hope they avoid defeat here.