Central Cordoba VS Newells Old Boys

Central Cordoba  welcome Godoy Cruz for this Argentinian Liga profesional round 13 battle at Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades in Santiago del Estero Sunday morning Beijing time. This league is of worse level as a whole by global standards than many football fans and bettors presumably realize - taking into account what a great football country Argentina is in terms of football culture and – of course, they lifted the World Cup trophy last December in Qatar! It is, on average, similarly to many other South American leagues, for example the Brazilian Serie A and Colombian Primera A, a low-scoring league. This match is no exception! The probability of under 2.5 goals scored is 69%. The hosts have a bad offense and the visitors are expected to be pretty defensive here – as they often do away from home. I must disagree with the biggest, often pretty smart bookies who see the hosts as only solid favorites and offer them odds of around 2.50 to take all three points.. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based in-depth analysis the visitors are slim favorites in this game so the smart choice is the visitors +0.5 goals! The probability of a draw is high – 34%. With today's expected lineups the visitors should have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game. They are missing Laba and Leguizamon. Godoy Cruz will be without Andrada, Ferrari and Ulariaga. As most of my fans probably know I will not let the league table fool me!  The difference between the clubs is bigger than the standings would suggest. Already last season the visitors finished better than Central Cordoba despite being pretty unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS).

Godoy Cruz have 17 to their account but in terms of expected points (xPTS) visitors would have deserved 19.98 They are in 13 th place place but I have them in 14th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. The hosts are only in 22nd place in this rating. Thir xPTS is just 11.67 and the actual number is 15 – and they are in 18th place. Their number of expected goals is 9.12 but they have netted the ball just times in this league so far this season. The visitors' number of xG is 16.02 but they have scored a respectable 15 goals.. The hosts have failed to win either of their most recent two games. In their latest match they were again very poor offensively – in this area of the game the Godoy Cruz have a big edge! Banfield won 1-0 at home and Central Cordoba failed to manage even a single shot at the hosts' goal and did not create much in xG. Their offense lacks speed, individual skill, creativity and structure. Before this they took a lucky point at home against Lanus - it was a 1-1 draw. The visitors recorded more goal attempts (21-6 ) shots on goal,(8-3) total passes, completed passes attacks and dangerous attacks – 68-41. Godoy Cruz, on the other hand, have lost just one of their most recent games and none of the latest three games! They would have deserved a win over Lanus at home five days ago but it was a 4-4 draw. The hosts recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. They look confident on the pitch at the moment..