Belgrano VS Newells Old Boys

Belgrano welcome Newells Old Boys for this Argentinian Liga profesional round 13 clash at Estadio Julio Cesar Villagra in Cordoba Sunday morning Beijing time. This league is of lower level as a whole by global standards than many football fans and bettors probably realize - taking into account what a great football country Argentina is in terms of football culture and – of course, Argentina lifted the World Cup trophy last December in Qatar! It is, on average, similarly to many other South American leagues, for example the Brazilian Serie A and Colombian Primera A, a low-scoring league. This match has a particularly low goal expectancy. The probability of under 2.5 goals scored is 75%. Both teams have a pretty strong defense but lack offensive quality - especially creativity and individual skill.. I must disagree with the biggest, often pretty sharp bookies who see the hosts as only solid favorites and offer them odds of around 2.40 to take all three points.. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based in-depth analysis there is no favorite in this game so the obvious choice is the visitors +0.5 goals. The probability of a draw is very high – 35%. With today's expected lineups the visitors should have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game. They are missing Angel Bernal, Campagnaro, Gonzalez, Lucioano and Vangioni. Belgrano will be without Barrea, Mariano, Oliver and Tapia. As my fans probably know I will not let the standings fool me! Last season the visitors finished in 11th place in this league with a total of 28 teams. The hosts, on the other hand, are a newly promoted team.

Newells Old Boys have 18 to their account but in terms of expected points (xPTS) visitors would have deserved 19.24 points. They are in 11th place place but I have them in 9th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. The hosts are only in 16th place in this rating. Thir xPTS is just 17.11 and the actual number is 21 - 7th place. Their number of expected goals allowed is 10.12 but they have netted the ball 12 times in this league so far this season. The visitors' number of xG is 14.02 but they have scored just 10 goals.. The hosts have won three games in a row and this has resulted in them being too hot on the betting market! In their most recent game they beat Gimnasia L.P, a team in 25th place, 2-0 away from home but were not the better team on the pitch. The hosts recorded more goal attempts (18-6 ) shots on goal attacks, and dangerous attacks – 68-41. Before this they beat out-of-form Huracan 2-0 at home and struggling Union de Santa Fe on the road 3-0. The visitors crushed Blooming from Bolivia in a Copa Sudamericana 3-0 at home in their most recent game and the visitors only recorded one shot on target. What a fine performance. Before this they fought well and lost to River Plate, a very strong club 0-1 at home despite a pretty good performance. The match was pretty balanced with 50-50% ball possession and both teams recording 12 scoring attempts. River Plate were very clear favorites in this game – priced around 2.00 to win by the bookies. This was the visitors' only loss in their latest five games.